1. MANAFORT AGREED TO PLEA DEAL WITH MUELLER. Politely bear in mind, no matter what we actually SEE of this, given the evidence Mueller has, there's NO WAY Mueller entered a plea deal without meaningful cooperation. The cooperation part? Can easily be sealed.
https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1040355639724331009
2. This means Manafort could easily do the same as Cohen. Just plead guilty to n. counts, and we don't see any "cooperation" agreement. That doesn't mean it doesn't exist. The two can easily be separated, with the cooperation agreement sealed for obvious reasons here.
3. I absolutely don't think the news about the "joint defense agreement" is current and I also think it is being put out for a specific reason. It's clear that there's been coordinated effort to make everyone think Manafort won't "flip" . That's the easiest way to protect him.
4. By the news not being current I mean sure they have had a joint defense agreement for a while... but that doesn't mean it is still valid at the moment. More importantly, the plea requires TWO participants: unless Mueller has an ADVANTAGE from it, no way he agrees to it.
5. Whatever the benefits for Mueller are, there ARE benefits for his team from this agreement, or he wouldn't have agreed to it. There might be various strategies involved here.
6. One other angle for this could also be Mueller playing them both, having receipts for what the Trump team and the Manafort team have been telling each other, and nailing Trump for blatant obstruction if he tries a pardon.
7. The other essential point is that these are in no way all the charges against Manafort. We haven't even started with the NaTSEC charges. Getting a plea deal from him, as in an admission of being a criminal from him, is relevant in that context. Easier to show he's a criminal.
8. So whatever is disclosed, including "oh Manafort is just pleading guilty" bear in mind that that is in NO way the full story. Just like Cohen did NOT simply plead guilty in reality. There's a lot more tot his, and it's the part that benefits MUELLER.
9. Mueller has ZERO interest in entering a plea deal with Manafort, unless he gets something significant in return. He has a ridic amount of evidence vs Manafort for this trial. NO WAY he'd enter a plea deal without substantial benefits. Which could be any of the options above.
10. In essence, be VERY careful with the news, if news is "oh no cooperation, he is just pleading guilty. " BC no, Mueller isn't going to enter an agreement that has no benefits for him. So something is amiss if that's the news. As explained above, many options.
11. Pay a lot of attention to details AROUND this when the official news breaks. And I mean a lot. . We'll talk about options then. But rest assured: Mueller DOES benefit from this, or no deal would have been reached. #MuellerIsComing /END
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