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Kaz Weida Profile picture
@kazweida
Sep 16, 2018 • 10 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X
This #SundayMorning we're delving into a question that's on everyone's mind these days. With only 51 days left until midterms, the forecast for Dems to take the House is looking pretty sunny.

Is it possible for Dems to take the Senate as well?
(Thread)
(2) First off, anything is possible. Trump wasn't favored to win the Presidency either and here we are. I guess the real question becomes is it likely for Dems to take the Senate in the upcoming midterms.

The answer is NO. It's not likely.
Here's why.

theatlantic.com/politics/archi…
(3) To take the Senate, Dems would need to hold onto every single seat they currently have, including 10 Dem senators in states Trump won by huge margins like West Virginia and North Dakota.

Senators in the most trouble? Nelson, Heitkamp, and McCaskill.

vox.com/policy-and-pol…
(4) It's not enough to keep every Senate seat. Dems would need to flip an additional 2 seats. @FiveThirtyEight gives Dems a 1 in 3 chance of taking the Senate.

Who has the best chance of flipping a seat?
Let's look at what the polls are saying.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-e…
(5) Currently, the following GOP held seats are rated a toss-up by @CookPolitical :

NV: Heller vs. Jacky Rosen (@RosenforNevada )
TN: Blackburn vs. Bredesen (@PhilBredesen )
AZ: McSally vs. Sinema (@RepSinema )

There's also one more race to watch. TEXAS.
reuters.com/article/us-usa…
(6) Defeating Ted Cruz would be a huge upset and @BetoORourke has been consistently gaining ground. Every time we look at the polls, Cruz's lead slips further. Beto started the summer down double digits

He's now within 4 points of the Texas incumbent.

vox.com/2018/9/12/1784…
(7) Finally, beyond the polling and projections, experts and political analysts have made one thing very clear. There is no model for what is happening in midterms this year. Voter turnout for the primaries has been unprecedented.

The blue wave is real.
cnn.com/2018/09/16/pol…
(8) Could the overwhelming rush of young voters, independents, and historic Dem turnout bring both houses of Congress within grasp of Democrats?

It's unlikely but it's possible.
And while it's a heavy lift, Americans understand it's imperative to take our country back. NOW.
(9) What can you do? Help Nelson & Heitkamp hang onto their seats. Support @RosenforNevada and @PhilBredesen . Most of all, push for historic midterm turnout.

Dems chance of winning the Senate is the same as Trump's chances were of winning in 2016.

Let's get it done.
(END) Thanks to @Capeters321 for the #SundayMorning thread suggestion. Come back next week for another deep dive into the week's headlines.

Cheers!

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More from @kazweida

Kaz Weida Profile picture
Oct 8, 2018
After Kevin Cramer characterized #MeToo as "victimization," I thought it'd be helpful to look into Kevin's backstory.

Turns out this is one of the least misogynistic things he's ever said.
Buckle up, North Dakota & meet your possible future Senator.

(THREAD)
#MondayMotivation
(2) Cramer made national news with his hot take on Kavanaugh.

“My point was that there was no type of intercourse or anything like that...that nothing happened in terms of a sexual … event, beyond, obviously, the attack... Even if it’s all true, does it disqualify him?"

Yikes.
(3) Because there was no penetration, Cramer argues, there was no assault. And really, who hasn't been drunk and tried to rape a woman. Am I right? 👀

This is a guy endorsed & supported by GW Bush and Trump because of course, he is.
Read 7 tweets
Kaz Weida Profile picture
Oct 7, 2018
This #SaturdayMorning we're addressing a complaint from those who say they won't bother voting this November.

What does it matter? they think. Gerrymandering has rigged the election. I'm in a red state or a red district. My vote won't count.

Here's why it matters.
👇
(THREAD)
(2) The GOP has erected many barriers to voting, including voter ID laws & lax security that undermines voter confidence in elections. But perhaps their most powerful tool is voter suppression through gerrymandering.

It's how the GOP won the House in 2012
nytimes.com/2018/06/19/opi…
(3) Gerrymandering is when state legislatures draw up districts in order to heavily weight conservative votes. Republican gerrymandering after the 2010 census helped win a majority of House seats for the GOP in 2012 even though they got fewer votes across congressional districts.
Read 14 tweets
Kaz Weida Profile picture
Sep 30, 2018
This #SundayMorning let's chat about what has become obvious during the Kavanaugh hearings.

We're still deep in the patriarchy, peeps.

The #MeToo movement has exposed the pervasiveness & persistence of misogyny. How do we fight back & dismantle sexism once and for all?
(THREAD)
(2) Let's start here.

One of the biggest problems is while women make up half the population, we don't have control of the institutions that have power over our lives.

From executive boardrooms to the halls of Congress, men's interests are & have always been OVER represented.
(3) That means men's voices are heard more often & that they are more involved in decisions. In business, in politics & in the media.

Despite GOP's rage-fueled defense of "good men" targeted by #MeToo the facts don't support that men are a minority being victimized in America.
Read 11 tweets
Kaz Weida Profile picture
Sep 29, 2018
I want to address what some have critiqued about Dr. Ford's accusations.

Why doesn't she recall more specifics?

Some survivors say they don't believe her because she doesn't remember the same details they do about their own assaults.

Let's deal with this bullshit.
(THREAD)
(2) My first assault happened when I was 12 years old. I remember what pajamas I was wearing. I remember what movie we were watching. I remember what beer he was drinking. I can recall specific smells and sounds and almost every nuance of that interaction seared on my brain.
(3) I was assaulted by 2 men in my best friend's house when I was 17. I remember their names of course because I went to high school with them. But I don't remember much else. Not what movie we watched. Not what I was wearing.

I hadn't been drinking, but the details are fuzzy.
Read 8 tweets
Kaz Weida Profile picture
Sep 26, 2018
Some people look at Brett Kavanaugh and see an ivy league nerd with a wife and two kids and a solid, respectable life.

But this is precisely why millions of women don't find it difficult to believe Dr. Blasey Ford & Debbie Ramirez.

WE SEE YOU BRETT.

#WednesdayWisdom
(THREAD)
(2) I see Brett because when my Mom looks at my stepfather, she sees the man she's loved and been married to for decades. A good partner and father.

But I see the man who abused and assaulted me throughout my teenage years. And the woman who didn't believe me.
(3) I see Brett because when they look at my high school yearbook, my classmates see broad shoulders and a perfect jawline. They see the class president & prom king.

I see the guy who sexually assaulted me. the one I hid in a bathroom to escape while he banged down the door.
Read 8 tweets
Kaz Weida Profile picture
Sep 9, 2018
This #SundayMorning we're digging into a question that has perplexed several news organizations looking into Brett Kavanaugh's financials.

How do you rack up between $60,000-$200,000 in credit card debt on baseball tickets and then make the debt disappear a year later?
(THREAD)
(2) First off let's explain what the hell is going on here. Brett Kavanaugh's finances are super suspicious. Kavanaugh makes about $250K as a judge and from lecturing at Harvard, but he also owes on a $1.2 million home that has been refinanced twice.

vanityfair.com/news/2018/07/b…
(3) In fact, Kavanaugh's finances tell a story of how he has lived beyond his means for the better part of a decade. Several times, his debt burden has exceeded his liquid assets.

That's not alarming on its own, but the details of that debt matter.
chicagotribune.com/news/nationwor…
Read 13 tweets

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