Peter Ward Profile picture
Sep 18, 2018 13 tweets 3 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Ok. So here goes an attempt to summarise where May is leading the U.K. with her Chequers plan.

First, it can’t of escaped anyone even remotely interested in politics that the Chequers proposal is universally hated by all sides. 1/
Labour have announced they’ll vote against it (they’ll vote against any deal as it’s an opportunity to force an election) so with a minority government the PM needs a deal with full party unity. This is where she’s made a huge mistake. 2/
Before Chequers, she had around 8 guaranteed “rebels” to worry about, the EU withdrawal act passed through parliament relatively unscathed showing the unity in the original position set out in Lancaster house (an amazing effort by @SteveBakerHW as well getting that through) 3/
The group @StandUp4Brexit has 26 MPs signed up to reject Chequers. That’s a lot lower than the 80 that were prepared to vote against the government to push the ERG amendments. 4/
So it’s clear that the Prime Minister isn’t able to force through a bad deal. So Chequers won’t be accepted. (Audible cheers...) here’s the next issue, there’s not enough support for WTO Brexit either... 5/
Pragmatic sensible remain voting Tories will support an orderly exit, with a free trade agreement, they’re unlikely to accept the WTO (wrongly called “no deal”) Brexit as they’ll see it as “crashing out” so the rebels increase dramatically 6/
So Chequers won’t get past MPs and WTO won’t get past MPs. That leaves parliament grid locked and the calls to put the question back to the people will grow stronger 7/
There’s merit to that, if the question is;

“Of these 2 options which would you prefer?” 8/
The issue is, Parliament wouldn’t miss an opportunity to reverse a decision most of its members disagree with. So they’ll insist that a Remain option is included, which makes the referendum a non starter. 9/
General election it is then... but how would Labour and Conservatives place their Brexit policies? Given labour’s voted against a deal (in this scenario) and the Conservatives are still torn, it’s unlikely a general election would solve the issue. 10/
That would make a party split in both Labour and Conservatives incredibly likely, at a time we need strong and stable leadership (don’t laugh) we’d have pure chaos 11/
So how do we get around this Kobayashi Maru (impossible test)? Simple, Chequers needs to be abandoned now, we build on the offer the EU made in March. 12/
There isn’t an alternative that respects democracy and can make it through parliament, the sooner MPs realise this, the sooner a good deal for Britain and the EU can be achieved. #StandUp4Brexit

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More from @Peter___Ward

Oct 3, 2018
My thoughts from conference. First, it can’t have escaped anyone the main hall has been empty, that key speakers that would normally have a following are losing it, yet the fringe events were packed. 1/
An ERG event turned people away, the Brexit Central rally turned people away, Boris’s speech (1500 capacity) turned people away. Why? Because CCHQ are at a complete disconnect with the majority of members 2/
There are some that are loyal to May and Chequers, they say “it’s the only workable plan” but it’s not workable, May has already announced she’s prepared to stay in a full customs union to appease the EU 3/
Read 11 tweets
Sep 15, 2018
What I’ve noticed in the last few years is quite astonishing. There’s a clear and coordinated attempt to undermine democracy and it’s working, but it’s not from the source you’d expect. 1/
Let’s start by defining democracy. To me it’s a system where those eligible, have their say, individuals views are heard, counted and then the majority decision is implemented. A very simplistic definition but one that is ultimately correct 2/
Why then have we a clear and coordinated campaign to change the rules of our democratic system as one side lost? Take the Tories in 2010 and 2015, the decision was protested and democracy challenged. 3/
Read 15 tweets

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