Thread by @Excellion

Let’s take a closer look at Bitmain’s announcement at #WDMS #miningconf for their “next gen” 7nm ASIC chips. To most people this may seem like a big deal and good news, but actually the announcement shows things aren’t looking too good for Bitmain. Read on. #BitmainIPO

For context, pre-Blockstream I was the COO at BTCC and running the exchange and mining business units.

First, the announcement is mostly hand wavy forward looking statements. Bitmain “will soon” mass produce it’s 7nm chips. When is soon? When will the actual miners be on sale?

Second, “the chip will include over a billion transistors.” Really? 8nm or 10nm chips could also have a billion transistors easily too. Sounds impressive to people outside the industry, but it’s not. This is like saying “the car will have 4 wheels.”

Third, “lab testing.” These are highly controlled conditions and they are only able to get “as low as” 42J/TH. This isn’t the average. This is as good as it gets. AND that is measuring efficiency of the chip itself, *not* the miner!

If we take historical info from Bitmain marketing, the S9’s chip was initially touted to be 75J/TH but the miner itself runs at 98J/TH. About 30% more power consumption. So it’s likely the new Bitmain miner with 7nm chips runs at 55J/TH at best. Nowhere near 42J/TH. Misleading.

Contrast Bitmain’s grand reveal of stats on a PPT to the WhatsMiner M10 launch which had a live demo showing actual stats at 64.2J/TH. And the M10 is 16nm. 7nm chips are almost 2x as expensive to produce as 16nm chips. How much will Bitmain sell their new miners for? Cost per TH!

Finally, “Bitmain’s best ever performing and most power-efficient mining chip.” Yes, it’s their best ever after 2 years with nothing new, but it’s hardly impressive for a 7nm chip, especially with the WhatsMiner M10 on the market.

TL;DR: Bitmain announced their new 7nm chip which isn’t that impressive. Efficiency of the miner isn’t going to be close to 42J/TH & it’s going to be expensive to produce. Oh, and Ebang is going to announce their new miner tomorrow. 🍿 #WDMS #miningconf #BitmainIPO