Two things that I'm thinking about as very serious issues this weekend:

1. Do you remember how quickly the Soviet Bloc collapsed? We're all thinking about life post-#Brexit as sort of muddling through, business as usual, but I think that's unlikely. >>>
If there's no deal, if the borders clog up - both looking virtually certain just now - there will be a sudden, long lasting, critical shortage of fresh food. Britain isn't used to that. I believe there will be civil disorder. >>>
It means there will be less food in the shops. It means the prices will rise. It means the poor will go without. It means there will be hunger. It means that social inequity will become even more stark. >>>
At the same time, the major UK political parties are likely to fall apart, and, particularly, May's majority will disappear. But you can't run an election campaign while there is widespread civil disorder. >>>
Britain is run more or less by consent. People grumble, but they more or less consent to engage with the system as it is. But when that falls apart, the police and army don't have the manpower to impose order at a national scale, nor do I think they would attempt it. >>>
The British state could fall apart. Not in decades, not in years, not in months, but in weeks. Scotland has to be ready for that. I don't believe we are.

OK, you thought that was apocalyptic? Let's go on to issue 2 >>>
Allegedly, @UKLabour are thinking of adopting a manifesto committment to block a second #indyref (I have this so far from only @BBCWeekendGMS, I dont have a second source) >>>
Suppose, after #Brexit, with the economy in free fall, there's a general election which elects @UKLabour as the UK government, but @theSNP win a majority of Scottish seats. That seems credible, yes? >>>
Then @ScotGovFM goes to UK gov and says 'I have a mandate to call a second #indyref', and UK gov replies 'we have a mandate to block you, permanently'. Where do we go then? We're into the #Catalonia situation. >>>
Now, obviously, UK Gov could be challenged in the courts, because blocking democratic self determination runs directly contrary to their committment as signatories to the UN Charter. But do we really trust the UK courts to uphold that? >>>
Meanwhile, see above, folk are hungry and the economy is doing an impression of a puntured airbed. How do we prevent the emergence of extremism? How do we prevent disaffected people saying 'democray won't work, we have to turn to violence'?

I see trouble ahead.

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More from @simon_brooke

Sep 2, 2018
I commented briefly, and carefully, on this tweet a couple of days ago. But it's been gnawing away at the back of my mind, and I'm going to try again. Thread. >>>
There is, obviously and necessarily, a great deal of sensitivity about comparisons between Zionism and fascism. There is a necessary reluctance to make that comparison. >>>

It's precisely this issue - of how much, and how, you can criticise Zionism and the Zionist state - that is causing so much trouble for @UKLabour at present. >>>

Read 11 tweets
May 28, 2018
The #GrowthComission report (yes, I'm struggling to read it, too) says:

"3.88 Maximising frictionless trade and market access with the rest of the UK and with Europe is of critical importance to the performance of the Scottish economy in the short and long term."
This is almost certainly not possible, and absolutely certainly not in our gift. England and Wales (hereinafter #EW) seemed destined for a very hard crash out of the #EU. >>>
Given that that is so, there will be a hard border between #EW and any country which is in either the EU or EFTA. >>>
Read 33 tweets
May 14, 2018
OK, look, sometimes people mess up. We all have times when we mess up. We all have times when we make two or three bad errors in succession. We're human. #1/23
The @newsundayherald is one of the important institutions of Scotland's news media. Admittedly it's less important now as our new media develops, but it was a big win for #Yes when, in 2014, it nailed our colours to its mast. #2/23
However, there's two aspects to that decision: yes, @newsundayherald's decision to come on board helped the #Yes movement, but the #Yes movement repaid that with a substantial boost in sales for the @newsundayherald. #3/23
Read 23 tweets
Apr 27, 2018
Does a social system with entrenched privilege systematically breed progressively nastier people? I suspect it does, and I shall argue it. Thread: >>>
I used to believe that the reason the British elite are in general such noxious people was because our system of elite education is so bad; but I've begun to doubt that that's the whole story. >>>
Elites tend to breed with elites, in quite narrow parameters: people tend to choose mates from socially similar backgrounds. >>>
Read 20 tweets
Mar 7, 2018
We're going to face a decade of economic collapse - probably two. The welfare state will go - and because of Barnett consequentials, it will go in Scotland too. Civil dissent will be met with repression. >>>
In those circumstances, secessionism is just another form of civil dissent, like trades unionism, to be crushed. We saw it in the 1980s, we see it today in #Catalunya. >>>
I don't know whether you are old enough to have campaigned in the 1979 referendum, or lived through the industrial conflict of the 1980s. I am; I did. Thatcher's government was as hostile to nationalism as to the left. >>>
Read 4 tweets

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