Thread by @simon_brooke

Two things that I'm thinking about as very serious issues this weekend:

1. Do you remember how quickly the Soviet Bloc collapsed? We're all thinking about life post-#Brexit as sort of muddling through, business as usual, but I think that's unlikely. >>>

If there's no deal, if the borders clog up - both looking virtually certain just now - there will be a sudden, long lasting, critical shortage of fresh food. Britain isn't used to that. I believe there will be civil disorder. >>>

It means there will be less food in the shops. It means the prices will rise. It means the poor will go without. It means there will be hunger. It means that social inequity will become even more stark. >>>

At the same time, the major UK political parties are likely to fall apart, and, particularly, May's majority will disappear. But you can't run an election campaign while there is widespread civil disorder. >>>

Britain is run more or less by consent. People grumble, but they more or less consent to engage with the system as it is. But when that falls apart, the police and army don't have the manpower to impose order at a national scale, nor do I think they would attempt it. >>>

The British state could fall apart. Not in decades, not in years, not in months, but in weeks. Scotland has to be ready for that. I don't believe we are.

OK, you thought that was apocalyptic? Let's go on to issue 2 >>>

Allegedly, @UKLabour are thinking of adopting a manifesto committment to block a second #indyref (I have this so far from only @BBCWeekendGMS, I dont have a second source) >>>

Suppose, after #Brexit, with the economy in free fall, there's a general election which elects @UKLabour as the UK government, but @theSNP win a majority of Scottish seats. That seems credible, yes? >>>

Then @ScotGovFM goes to UK gov and says 'I have a mandate to call a second #indyref', and UK gov replies 'we have a mandate to block you, permanently'. Where do we go then? We're into the #Catalonia situation. >>>

Now, obviously, UK Gov could be challenged in the courts, because blocking democratic self determination runs directly contrary to their committment as signatories to the UN Charter. But do we really trust the UK courts to uphold that? >>>

Meanwhile, see above, folk are hungry and the economy is doing an impression of a puntured airbed. How do we prevent the emergence of extremism? How do we prevent disaffected people saying 'democray won't work, we have to turn to violence'?

I see trouble ahead.