I want to share a few obvious thoughts on the #KavanaughConfirmation - we need to use the right Bayesian priors to think this through: 1) false accusations of rape occur between 2-10% of the time en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_acc…
2) 63% of sexual assaults are not reported to police nsvrc.org/sites/default/…
3) multiple, unrelated accusations should cause you to radically update your priors
4) it is incredibly costly for these victims to come forward, and they only have an incentive to do so when the benefits of sharing their awful experiences outweigh the costs (i.e., now)
5) in general, you should believe the women
6) if any of these assaults happened, even long ago, Kavanaugh is lying about his behavior, which in itself is disqualifying washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-lin…
7a) this is NOT a court of law - he's not on trial - it's a job interview. When I interview people, I do reference checks - if even one of them has something quite negative to say, that is usually disqualifying (of course, that prompts a deeper investigation, which is why the...
7b) ...FBI should be involved) - when hiring someone, you'd much rather miss a qualified candidate by having too strong a filter than hire a bad candidate, who poisons the entire workplace - that same standard should apply here en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Type_I_an…
8) Kavanaugh's high school yearbook paints a picture of a real [fill in unspeakable words here] - partying, drunken frat boy barely hiding tons of innuendo nytimes.com/2018/09/24/bus…
9) he then went on Fox and made out to be a choir boy, which is totally disingenuous (to say the least!)
10) did I mention, believe the women?
Today has left me feeling physically ill, both because of the callous behavior of so many entitled men, & because of stories that are pouring out from friends about their own abuse, decades ago, kept silent until now. Tomorrow I will fight harder to make the world a better place.
If there is a silver lining to this terribly dark cloud, it is that we are now in a moment where there is a collective awakening about how prevalent these traumatic experiences are, combined with love and support for victims who feel empowered to finally share their stories.
Brave women who never should have suffered shame and isolation, but now realize they were far from alone. #BelieveTheWomen

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