Luigi Scazzieri Profile picture
Sep 28, 2018 8 tweets 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
The 5 Star League coalition in #Italy is now 4 months old. What should we make of it? A thread @CER_EU
Italy has a more confrontational approach to the EU picking fights on migration, the EU budget and Italy’s finances. Salvini has driven the agenda on immigration, and the League has benefitted – polling 30% vs 17% in the general election
Italy’s run in with EU has been milder then feared. Plans for a 2.4% budget deficit are a big climb-down from early plans for a 7% deficit. If both the Five Star and the League can claim victory, the optics of spat with the EU will matter more than the substance of the budget.
Despite the budget climb-down, the EU should expect confrontation on other issues - especially migration. Rome wants member-states to take in a share of people landing in Italy, but there’s no progress on plans agreed in June to set up processing centres in the EU and elsewhere.
Italy is also likely to increasingly clash with Macron, whohas criticised Rome’s migration policy. Italy blames France for reducing its clout in Libya and destabilising the country through an ill-advised push for early elections in pursuit of influence and business opportunities.
Rivalry between the Five Star and League, and the popularity of EU-bashing, will continue to shape Italian politics and generate confrontation with the EU. Italians are increasingly disillusioned with the EU, believing it didn't show solidarity inthe eurozone and migration crises
With little chance of €zone reform, Italian economic grievances will fester. However, with the migration crisis under control it would be relatively inexpensive for willing member states to set up a mechanism to share asylum-seekers.
The League and Five Star would claim victory, but ultimately such a visible sign of European solidarity would weaken their anti-EU rhetoric. More here…

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More from @LScazzieri

Jun 1, 2018
Thread on #Italy: 3 months after elections, Italy has a government representing 50 per cent of Italians. Any other solution would have seemed confected and undemocratic. The Five Star and the League will now have to come to terms with the reality of government @CER_EU
Italy's President took risks by vetoing Savona's appointment as finance minister, yet ultimately prevailed when the League and the 5S came back to the negotiating table and accepted that he would have to be moved to another ministry.
The new government is a hybrid of populism and technocracy, with 3 non politicians as ministers, including a minister from Monti's government as foreign minister.
Read 10 tweets
May 13, 2018
There is no firm deal yet. But worth reflecting on what a 5Star-Lega government would mean for EU: Italy unlikely to be a spoiler unless it is is pushed THREAD from longer piece here…… @CER_EU
1) Eurozone reform more difficult. Even though Lega and 5S toned down idea of immediately implementing 'flat tax' and universal basic income and unlikely to breach 3pct budget deficit rule their stance pits them against Commission + gives Germany excuse to go give up on reform.
2) Italy will be more sympathetic towards Russia. However, will not try to remove sanctions: drains political capital badly needed in economic sphere and harm relations with the US. Rome likely to maintain EU unity on sanctions while also boosting political and trade ties with RU
Read 8 tweets

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