The 5 Star League coalition in #Italy is now 4 months old. What should we make of it? A thread @CER_EU 
Italy has a more confrontational approach to the EU picking fights on migration, the EU budget and Italy’s finances. Salvini has driven the agenda on immigration, and the League has benefitted – polling 30% vs 17% in the general election
Italy’s run in with EU has been milder then feared. Plans for a 2.4% budget deficit are a big climb-down from early plans for a 7% deficit. If both the Five Star and the League can claim victory, the optics of spat with the EU will matter more than the substance of the budget.
Despite the budget climb-down, the EU should expect confrontation on other issues - especially migration. Rome wants member-states to take in a share of people landing in Italy, but there’s no progress on plans agreed in June to set up processing centres in the EU and elsewhere.
Italy is also likely to increasingly clash with Macron, whohas criticised Rome’s migration policy. Italy blames France for reducing its clout in Libya and destabilising the country through an ill-advised push for early elections in pursuit of influence and business opportunities.
Rivalry between the Five Star and League, and the popularity of EU-bashing, will continue to shape Italian politics and generate confrontation with the EU. Italians are increasingly disillusioned with the EU, believing it didn't show solidarity inthe eurozone and migration crises
With little chance of €zone reform, Italian economic grievances will fester. However, with the migration crisis under control it would be relatively inexpensive for willing member states to set up a mechanism to share asylum-seekers.
The League and Five Star would claim victory, but ultimately such a visible sign of European solidarity would weaken their anti-EU rhetoric. More here cer.eu/publications/a…
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