Thread by @submergingmkt

Since @billmaher + @TheEconomist were clearly out of their depth wrt tax + trade policies when interviewing the wily #ChristianNationalist #Bannon, they need our help. So here’s #10Qs4Bannon.

#10Qs4Bannon 1. Under the Trump/Goldman tax act, when do US companies actually have to pay the so-called 8-15% “repatriation” tax? Do they actually have invest in the US economy, or otherwise “repatriate” it, or do they just have to pay the tax? How much has actually come back?

#10Qs4Bannon Answer to 1. MNCs get 8 yrs to pay the 15% tax, int free, according to a fixed sched : 5% yrs 1-4, etc. They’re not req ‘d to reinvest or repatriate anything. And if they leave their offshore, they can invest tax free, since the corp tax is now “nearly” territorial

#10Qs4Bannon 2.What was the US unemployment rate in Dec 2017, b4 the Trump tax plan was adopted? In 2/17, when Trump took office? In 2/2009, when Obama took office? And what is it now?

#10Qs4Bannon Answer to 2. The official US unemployment rate was 8.3% in 2/2009 when Obama took office. It was 4.7%, or 76% lower, in 2/2017 just b4 Trump took office, and 4.1% just b4 the Goldman tax plan was adopted. It is 3.9% now, or 4.9% lower.

#10Qs4Bannon 3. How much offshore profits had been accumulated tax free by US MNCS as of 12/17, eligible for the 1% effective tax rate for “pseudo repatriation?” Where did they come from?

#10Qs4Bannon Answer to 3. 1986-12/17: US MNCs accum’d $2.6 tr offshore that avoided the nom US 35% corp tax entirely. 1/3rd of this was due to bogus transfers of US-created IP assets (patents, tmarks,software) to haven cos, so MNCs cld pay themselves royalties tax free.

#10Qs4Bannon 4. What % of US MNC coorporate equity is owned by the global top 1% (includ holdings by nonresid investors who don’t pay US taxes, hedge funds and PE firms owned by their investors, high income retirement funds, and US cit holdings channeled thru offshore vehicles)?

#10Qs4Bannon Answer to 4. The best estimate is >90%, including at least a third by offshore investors.

9.10Qs4Bannon. 5. Have any earlier US corp tax cuts ever paid for themselves, in terms of the US fed budget deficit? How large is the resulting incr in the US deficit due to the Trump tax cut likely to be? Coming at the pt of a prolonged 10 yr recovery +stock mkt, what impacts?

#10Qs4Bannon Answer to 5. Historically no US corporate tax cut is ever paid for itsel. Most economists expect that the budget deficit will increase by at least $1 tr over the next decade, But it may be more depending on the “race to the bottom” (see below).

#10Qs4Bannon. 6. How are other OECD countries that compete with the US MNCs, like Germany, the UK, Australia, France,+South Korea likely to respond? what impact will this have on the tax cuts ultimate multiplier effects?

10Qs4Bannon Answer to 5 (cont. ) This tax cut arrives at a pt of full employment in the US, so it is likely to jack inflation+ encourage the Fed to boost int rates even faster. The resulting inflation is already being felt by unorg’d workers +retirees

#10Qs4Bannon Answer to 5. Historically no US corporate tax cut has ever paid for itself. Most economists expect that the budget deficit will increase by at least $1 tr over the next decade, But it may be more depending on the “race to the bottom” (see below).

#10Qs4Bannon 7. The IMF, WorldBank,EU, OECD, ECB, +the WTO all expect that the “trade wars” plus #Brexit will REDUCE ave global growth rates by at least 1 percentage pt over the next 2 yrs. You’re not an economist, - do you know something everyone else doesn’t?

#10Qs4Bannon. Answer to 7: “Goldman guys just feel it in our bones. I meditate a lot. Worst case, this is all a big short for my friends. They already worship me for the tax thing. Victory lapping.”

#10Qs4Bannon Answer 8: “What am I, the answer cookie? Beats shit outta me.Ask Navarro.Ask Ross.They must know.Anyway,welcome to the brave new world of faith based econ. I really do believe Trump’s election was an Act of God. And not just any old God.The God of the Old Testament”

#10Qs4Bannon 8. “Historically, study after study shows that trade deficits are driven mainly by macro phenomena like national savings rates, growth,+ exchange rates. How is your big tax cut + your crackdown on immigration consistent w your goal for a lower trade deficit? “

#10Qs4Bannon 9. “Developing countries are much more dep on corp income taxes than the US, +Trump’s trade,oil,ER, Int rate, anti-immigration+ climate ch policies are also having a huge neg impact on global inequality+the poorest people on the planet. How does that make u feel?”’

#10Qs4Bannon. Answer to 9. “Like a boss. Screw them.Their countries are shitholes anyway.We just passed a $700 bi def budget+have spec ops in 73 countries.The 1 yr increase in US def budget was bigger than #RU’s entire def budget. So screw RU,screw China, screw NATO,+ screw u.”

#10Qs4Bannon 10. “On a lighter note, how many times did you hv dinner w Alex Nix+Erik Prince at the #Mercer’s 12 homes, what role did CA play in #Brexit, #Kenya,12/16,+#India, what’s your role in #Emerdata,+ what does “TheMovement” hv planned for the EU,+ r u helping #Bolsonaro?”

#10Qs4Bannon answer to10. “What is this, a REAL INTERVIEW? No comment!My agent specifically forbid those kinds of questions! “

#10Qs4Bannon #JustAFewMore 11. “When did you become aware of #CambridgeAnalytica’ tilting role w FB messages in the 2017 Pres election in #Kenya?”