UK govt claims it wants an EU "deal", with a few weeks left. So, the Foreign Sec compares the EU to a Soviet prison, dashing hopes that the insults of his predecessor will now be replaced by moderation and alienating EU members UK badly needs on side. /1 theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/o…
Today, the Prime Minister doubles down by trying to focus attention on the new post-Brexit migration policy. In doing so, she proudly announces on #r4today that free movement will end. This alone is being blind to the fact that it means no more movt for Brits (if they care?) /2
Insisting on the end of FOM also says to the EU explicitly that their citizens will no longer be able to come to the UK because the UK wants 'high skilled only'. Ergo, EU workers are low-skilled and therefore undesirable. /3
So, countries whose citizens have come to the UK and helped grow the economy without being burdensome on the welfare system (as per the evidence) are deemed to be the root cause of the UK's dissatisfaction with the EU, which is why it 'must' end. /4
It does not take a genius to work out the message that this rhetoric sends at this key moment in the negotiations, not only to MS in Central and Eastern Europe but to the rest of the EU too. And, just as importantly, to the world. /5
Result? In a practical sense the UK will start to do something it could partly have done under EU law (since free movement was never absolutely guaranteed) except with huge amounts of bureaucracy, paperwork and employers too wary of employing foreigners. /6
And whilst it seems that not only talking 'tough' on immigration might play well domestically, my suspicion is that it will not have much of a positive effect on votes. Why? Because the voters they are chasing will always think there is too much immigration. /7
And even if immigration goes down, those same voters will demand further cuts or start talking increasingly of repatriating those who 'shouldn't be here'. /8
Anecdotally, when talking to Leave voters in the referendum campaign, those opposed to FOM were opposed to all immigration and were convinced that the UK has a completely open door to anyone in the world to come. /9
So, if you pursue this group of voters - however large a group they may be - you will never satisfy them, because they want an immigration model which is impossible to achieve. The tougher choice is to stress the benefits of migration/FOM for the UK, not to talk 'tough'. /10
Ending FOM for Brits and removing rights should be seen as a dreadful thing for a government to do, especially for future generations. But perhaps 'ordinary' UK citizens won't realise what it has meant for the last decades until it is gone. /END

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More from @Cardwell_PJ

Sep 24, 2018
Following the sending of the Article 50 revocation case from the Court of Session in Scotland to the Court of Justice of the EU (CJEU or ECJ) in Luxembourg, there seems to be some confusion over what the Court is and does. So a reminder of the law on this would be worthwhile. /1
First, the 'law' here means the Treaties (Treaty on European Union (TEU) and Treaty on the Functioning on the EU (TFEU)). These are the highest source of EU law and the signatories are the Member States. So, if something is in the Treaties, the MS must want it there. /2
The Court is an institution of the EU (Article 13 TEU) and, like other institutions (Commission, Parliament, Council) must act within its powers. Its main role is to "ensure that in the interpretation and application of the Treaties the law is observed." (Article 19(1) TEU). /3
Read 15 tweets
Sep 4, 2018
Absolutely right that @UniversitiesUK and @UUKIntl should put pressure on govt to change visa requirements for overseas students. For the last 15 years my academic role has included recruiting students from overseas. Here are a few of my thoughts. /1 bbc.co.uk/news/education…
Most of the attention in this debate is the money that overseas students inject into the national, and local, economies. That is only part of the story. UK Universities have a proud tradition of being international - it is not just about the money. /2
Being international exposes UK students (and staff) to different ways of thinking. All of which are increasing required in a global working environment (even if you never leave home). /3
Read 13 tweets
Sep 3, 2018
Imagine for a moment that you are trying to explain UK politics and Brexit to a visitor who has no experience of either. /1
First, you have a referendum which was promised by a party who won an election. Fine. But there is no planning for one outcome of the election, despite the same government having had a recent close call with another referendum (Indyref) showing how close they can be. /2
One campaign is led by a man who decides at the last minute that he will support this side, having previously identified (and done speeches, TV programmes and books to prove it) for the other side. /3
Read 8 tweets
Sep 2, 2018
Barnier speaks a lot of sense here, and it gets to the heart of the oft-heard argument in the UK of "we want trade but nothing else". /1 theguardian.com/politics/2018/…
For those making the "trade and nothing else argument", trade is generally understood to mean trade in goods. Which is paradoxical, given the importance of services for the UK economy. /2
Anyone who knows anything about the single market is fully aware that attachment to the four freedoms (goods, services, capital, people) is not just because it is hard-wired into the DNA and identity of the European Union but also because of the inseparable links between them. /3
Read 7 tweets
Aug 23, 2018
This is basically just a statement of what we know about #NoDealBrexit. Only in the last two paragraphs so we get anything about Labour’s vision. /1 theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
And despite the criticism of the Tory approach, there is precious little new or inspiring of confidence here. /2
What are UK-EU “common institutions” and why should the EU have the expense and bother of these just to satisfy a leaving state? /3
Read 4 tweets
Aug 23, 2018
What does #NoDealBrexit mean for #Erasmus? We already knew that the UK govt was going to fund successful bids before 2020 and has encouraged UK institutions to apply. But there are still things to note in the technical notice on Erasmus /1 gov.uk/government/pub…
Erasmus is fundamentally about mobility, there is a big question mark over the conditions of how people move UK-EU and EU-UK. The notice says: "The govt will need to reach agreement with the EU for UK organisations to continue participating in Erasmus+" /2
Which does not make sense: if there is no deal, then how can there be discussions about an "agreement"? It continues with "the government will engage with member states and key institutions to seek to ensure UK participants can continue" - but how? Bilateral agreements? /3
Read 11 tweets

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