Thread by @Cardwell_PJ

UK govt claims it wants an EU "deal", with a few weeks left. So, the Foreign Sec compares the EU to a Soviet prison, dashing hopes that the insults of his predecessor will now be replaced by moderation and alienating EU members UK badly needs on side. /1 theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/o…

Today, the Prime Minister doubles down by trying to focus attention on the new post-Brexit migration policy. In doing so, she proudly announces on #r4today that free movement will end. This alone is being blind to the fact that it means no more movt for Brits (if they care?) /2

Insisting on the end of FOM also says to the EU explicitly that their citizens will no longer be able to come to the UK because the UK wants 'high skilled only'. Ergo, EU workers are low-skilled and therefore undesirable. /3

So, countries whose citizens have come to the UK and helped grow the economy without being burdensome on the welfare system (as per the evidence) are deemed to be the root cause of the UK's dissatisfaction with the EU, which is why it 'must' end. /4

It does not take a genius to work out the message that this rhetoric sends at this key moment in the negotiations, not only to MS in Central and Eastern Europe but to the rest of the EU too. And, just as importantly, to the world. /5

Result? In a practical sense the UK will start to do something it could partly have done under EU law (since free movement was never absolutely guaranteed) except with huge amounts of bureaucracy, paperwork and employers too wary of employing foreigners. /6

And whilst it seems that not only talking 'tough' on immigration might play well domestically, my suspicion is that it will not have much of a positive effect on votes. Why? Because the voters they are chasing will always think there is too much immigration. /7

And even if immigration goes down, those same voters will demand further cuts or start talking increasingly of repatriating those who 'shouldn't be here'. /8

Anecdotally, when talking to Leave voters in the referendum campaign, those opposed to FOM were opposed to all immigration and were convinced that the UK has a completely open door to anyone in the world to come. /9

So, if you pursue this group of voters - however large a group they may be - you will never satisfy them, because they want an immigration model which is impossible to achieve. The tougher choice is to stress the benefits of migration/FOM for the UK, not to talk 'tough'. /10

Ending FOM for Brits and removing rights should be seen as a dreadful thing for a government to do, especially for future generations. But perhaps 'ordinary' UK citizens won't realise what it has meant for the last decades until it is gone. /END