Chris Geidner Profile picture
Oct 5, 2018 15 tweets 3 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
This is where it appears things stand. With Murkowski a no and Flake an all-but-certain yes, the nomination of Brett Kavanaugh for the Supreme Court will come down to the Republican senator from Maine and the Democratic senator from West Virginia.
If confirmed, the best Kavanaugh could do, given what we know, would be a 51-49 vote — the closest Supreme Court confirmation vote of any sitting justice. Justice Thomas was confirmed on a 52-48 vote.
More on this, from me —> Brett Kavanaugh's Final Supreme Court Vote Will Be One Of The Closest In US History, No Matter How It Turns Out…
Now up: Sen. Susan Collins.
Collins is talking about how Democrats and special interest groups opposed Kavanaugh as or before his name was even announced.
“I have always opposed litmus tests,” Collins says. She notes her votes for Roberts, Alito, Sotomayor, Kagan, and Gorsuch.
Needless to say, Collins sounds like a yes — pushing back on the legal arguments against Kavanaugh that have been advanced during the original confirmation hearings for Kavanaugh. Thus far, she’s not raised the sexual assault allegations or Kavanaugh’s testimony last week.
(Collins’ open about Democrats obviously ignored the fact that Republicans and the right’s special interest groups’ immediate support was similarly ready for multiple possible nominees. Especially under Trump, where we have a list, this was a bit over-the-top.)
Did Susan Collins not exist for the past three weeks?
Has Lisa Blatt, just cited by Collins, commented since the Ford allegations were made public?
Here we go: Collins is talking about Ford.
The presumption of innocence, due process, and fairness bear on Collins’ thinking, she says, “and I cannot abandon them.”
Collins hasn’t said it yet, but she is clearly a yes vote for Judge Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination to the Supreme Court.

Unless Flake (or someone unexpected) changes his or her planned vote, Kavanaugh will be confirmed as a justice on Saturday.
“I do not believe that these charges can fairly prevent Judge Kavanaugh from serving on the Supreme Court,” Sen. Susan Collins says, concluding that, in her view, the accusations by Ford failed to meet a “more likely than not” standard that Collins is using to judge them.
Sen. Lamar Alexander just compared Sen. Susan Collins to Sen. Margaret Chase Smith. ... Smith famously led the charge against a nominee from her own party: Nixon #SCOTUS nominee Clement Haynsworth Jr. (McConnell echoed the Smith-Collins comparison as well.)

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More from @chrisgeidner

Oct 9, 2018
Breaking: #SCOTUS allows North Dakota voter ID requirement, which had been enjoined during the primaries, to be enforced during the general election.
Here was the filing asking #SCOTUS to lift the stay that had been entered by the 8th Circuit of the district court's injunction:…
Here was North Dakota's opposition to the request. (The state hired William Consovoy in DC as outside counsel.) —>…
Read 8 tweets
Oct 9, 2018
Off to #SCOTUS, where Justice Brett Kavanaugh has joined the court and will be hearing arguments in two criminal sentencing cases today.
Another person to watch: Chief Justice John Roberts, who now gets to decide what to do with his Supreme Court. Read my story about that aspect of this change:…
#SCOTUS, Oct. 9, 2018: Justice Brett Kavanaugh’s first day on the court, as a small group of protesters remain: “This isn’t over.”
Read 12 tweets
Oct 8, 2018
President Trump apologizes to Kavanaugh: “You, sir, under historic scrutiny, were proven innocent.” All other nine justices are sitting in the front row.
Kavanaugh was not, of course, “proven innocent,” as it was not a trial.
Read 9 tweets
Oct 8, 2018
My latest —> Chief Justice John Roberts Now Gets To Decide What To Do With His Supreme Court… #SCOTUS
Back in January 2017, I wrote about how the chief justice had handled the 8-justice court after Scalia's death, a pattern I'd been watching since the marriage cases and have been slightly obsessed with since. —>…
In January of this year, I put down what I'd been observing — an ever-so-slight shift from the chief — into words, noting how it wasn't quite clear yet why it was happening (or what Kennedy's departure would mean for it).…
Read 5 tweets
Oct 7, 2018
It’s ridiculously hot out for October. I also saw a buffalo today. I don’t know if they’re related. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
(Yes, I’m taking the day off. A Star Is Born tonight! Back tomorrow.)
Going ✈️ Gaga
Read 4 tweets
Oct 6, 2018
The scene outside the Supreme Court right now is unreal.
Brett Kavanaugh's Supreme Court Confirmation Vote Was One Of The Closest In US History… #SCOTUS
Only one Supreme Court nominee was confirmed on a closer vote. That vote was in 1881.…
Read 12 tweets

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