Thread by @paulrey99

My reply to @TomTugendhat & @AllieRenison on why we must #ChuckChequers if we want to avoid Norway+ & have an independent trade policy. THREAD =>

https://twitter.com/TomTugendhat/status/1048974315092430848

1) Trade experts have panned the idea of FCA and crucially exposed the false statistics & assumptions at heart of FCA, as revealed by Oliver Wright in Times. thetimes.co.uk/article/brexit…

2) Lord Lilley explained how the figures for FCA are actually far worse. Over half the imports that would be under consideration in an FTA would be subject to the complex repayment system. No basis for a reciprocal FTA.
brexitcentral.com/deceit-heart-c…

3) HMG's own white paper hints at FCA complexity & how difficult it will be to provide EU with assurance the system will be robust enough. Unsurprising the EU rejected the scheme as unworkable.

4) HMG suggest new trusted trader scheme for FCA. So why not new trusted trader scheme for Max-Fac ? Rules of Origin to be used ? FCA simply transfers customs admin burden from exporters to EU (6% of UK biz) to all biz importing from RoW = disincentive for FTAs w/ RoW.

5) FCA crosses EU red lines, breaking EU legal order RE Customs Union. FCA claims all the benefits of Customs Union, w/o obligations of Common Commercial Policy (which EU states are bound by). Cakeism of worst sort. EU will *never* agree FCA.

6) There is also the distinct possibility that FCA is illegal under WTO law, as explained here by Prof David Collins. brexitcentral.com/chequers-plan-…

7) All told, it is difficult to argue with the conclusion reached by Oliver Wright in Times. May must either accept full Customs Union or leave the Customs Union altogether (Canada+).

8) Common Rule Book will also be a barrier to FTA's w/ RoW. As explained here by David Henig, TPP will require UK openness to non-Eu regs, incl US food standards, which Common Rule Book will not allow.

https://twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status/1049197001508835328

9) Common Rule Book will inevitably limit our ability to negotiate on non-tariff barriers. EEA states can only follow EU lead on negotiating mutual recognition agreements with 3rd countries (EEA protocol 12).

10) Common Rule Book is essentially cherry-picked participation in the single market (for goods only). More Cakeism. EU have made very clear they will not split the 4 freedoms. So Common Rule Book will inevitably become full EEA acquis.

11) This week, we have the news that May will commit UK to Customs Union as part of NI backstop. FCA will not work, will not be accepted by EU, will not form part of Withdrawal Agreement. How do we ever escape Customs Union w/o abandoning NI ?

12) What incentive do EU/RoI have to release UK/NI from backstop of Customs Union & regulatory alignment ? None. It's a trap which leads to Norway+ (SM&CU in an assoc'n agreement) or abandoning NI.

13) To avoid the backstop trap, we must have an EU/RoI commitment w/ a timescale to an NI specific max-fac / soft border solution (would be all-weather and not reliant on a future FTA) as part of the Withdrawal Agreement (*not* the non-binding political declaration).

14) If we want to escape SM&CU, have an independent trade policy, respect Ref & GE manifesto, we must not sign NI backstop as stands. Moreover we must #ChuckChequers /end