Paul Reynolds Profile picture
Oct 8, 2018 15 tweets 5 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
My reply to @TomTugendhat & @AllieRenison on why we must #ChuckChequers if we want to avoid Norway+ & have an independent trade policy. THREAD =>
1) Trade experts have panned the idea of FCA and crucially exposed the false statistics & assumptions at heart of FCA, as revealed by Oliver Wright in Times.…
2) Lord Lilley explained how the figures for FCA are actually far worse. Over half the imports that would be under consideration in an FTA would be subject to the complex repayment system. No basis for a reciprocal FTA.…
3) HMG's own white paper hints at FCA complexity & how difficult it will be to provide EU with assurance the system will be robust enough. Unsurprising the EU rejected the scheme as unworkable.
4) HMG suggest new trusted trader scheme for FCA. So why not new trusted trader scheme for Max-Fac ? Rules of Origin to be used ? FCA simply transfers customs admin burden from exporters to EU (6% of UK biz) to all biz importing from RoW = disincentive for FTAs w/ RoW.
5) FCA crosses EU red lines, breaking EU legal order RE Customs Union. FCA claims all the benefits of Customs Union, w/o obligations of Common Commercial Policy (which EU states are bound by). Cakeism of worst sort. EU will *never* agree FCA.
6) There is also the distinct possibility that FCA is illegal under WTO law, as explained here by Prof David Collins.…
7) All told, it is difficult to argue with the conclusion reached by Oliver Wright in Times. May must either accept full Customs Union or leave the Customs Union altogether (Canada+).
8) Common Rule Book will also be a barrier to FTA's w/ RoW. As explained here by David Henig, TPP will require UK openness to non-Eu regs, incl US food standards, which Common Rule Book will not allow.
9) Common Rule Book will inevitably limit our ability to negotiate on non-tariff barriers. EEA states can only follow EU lead on negotiating mutual recognition agreements with 3rd countries (EEA protocol 12).
10) Common Rule Book is essentially cherry-picked participation in the single market (for goods only). More Cakeism. EU have made very clear they will not split the 4 freedoms. So Common Rule Book will inevitably become full EEA acquis.
11) This week, we have the news that May will commit UK to Customs Union as part of NI backstop. FCA will not work, will not be accepted by EU, will not form part of Withdrawal Agreement. How do we ever escape Customs Union w/o abandoning NI ?
12) What incentive do EU/RoI have to release UK/NI from backstop of Customs Union & regulatory alignment ? None. It's a trap which leads to Norway+ (SM&CU in an assoc'n agreement) or abandoning NI.
13) To avoid the backstop trap, we must have an EU/RoI commitment w/ a timescale to an NI specific max-fac / soft border solution (would be all-weather and not reliant on a future FTA) as part of the Withdrawal Agreement (*not* the non-binding political declaration).
14) If we want to escape SM&CU, have an independent trade policy, respect Ref & GE manifesto, we must not sign NI backstop as stands. Moreover we must #ChuckChequers /end

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More from @paulrey99

Sep 2, 2018
I see @NickBoles has hijacked the Better Brexit tag used by those advocating WTO option ( ). Typical Boles, the man who encouraged Gove to knife Boris in 2016. /1
That said, step 1 of @NickBoles plan is to reject the disastrous Withdrawal Agreement that has been proposed - which is absolutely right and something almost everybody, Leavers & Remainers, should agree on. /2
Step 4 of @NickBoles plan focusses on need to prepare for WTO by preparing customs infrastructure for life outside the EU. Note: EFTA EEA is outside Customs Union so is no better than WTO in this respect ! /3
Read 12 tweets
Aug 28, 2018
Just seen this tweet from @DavidHenigUK . Let's think about this from another angle. THREAD
Should / could UK negotiate a better trade relationship with EU than WTO ? How can we know since EU are refusing to talk about future trade at all until we agree to cough up £40bn & sacrifice NI to EU's demands.
To avoid this scenario, UK could/should have refused this sequencing . Would that have won plaudits from the commentariat ? I doubt it. UK would have been cast as belligerent & arrogant for thinking it could dictate the terms of negotiations.
Read 18 tweets
Aug 23, 2018
Spotlight on "No Deal" & pharma / medicines today. Astra Zeneca are clearly going to be ready for No Deal. MSM Remainer-in-chief Faisal Islam seems unhappy about this.
Typically, Faisal manages to mangle the details. Astra are transferring their EMA approvals to an EU/EEA based agency. Note that the Swiss (big pharma player) also have EMA approvals with EU/EEA based agencies.
Raab states that in No Deal scenario, UK will continue to recognise EU-27 EMA approvals (initially at least). In time, UK will develop an independent approval system (like the Swiss) and partner with other non-EU pharma agencies (Swiss, USA, Canada, Aus etc)
Read 11 tweets
Aug 16, 2018
Important article. Art 50 talks will fail if UK is expected to sacrifice NI & £39bn w/o g'tee of future trade agreement and solution to NI border. Important question then is "What happens next?"…
Saying No to unacceptable Withdrawl Agreement does not have to mean the end of talking to EU or any prospect of working arrangements. "How" we say No is important.
UK should honour pledges on EU c'zens, be willing to honour some/all of £39bn in "good faith" in exchange for "good faith" in honouring WTO terms + other standard third country agreements.
Read 15 tweets
Aug 4, 2018
This attack on Prof Collins & WTO is in itself deeply misleading & skewed. THREAD:
1) Collins is right to dismiss "EU leaders like to threaten us with hints that our exports would be unsellable in the EU". Countries all round the world sell into EU/SM.
2) But, there are differences for 3rd countries outside EU/SM. The key question is what is the impact of these differences for a UK trading under WTO terms
Read 20 tweets

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