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Amit Mantri Profile picture
@amitmantri
May 18, 2017 • 10 tweets • 4 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
In the spirit of asking Qs that few seem to do in a bull market, here are a few more related to Dilip Buildcon.

#justasking #NextShilpi
Why does it have 5 months+ of receivables? Why are 1300 crs of receivables non-current i.e. outstanding for more than a year?

#justasking
Why does it have 1660 crs of inventory (1.5x of annual raw material consumption)?

#justasking
What are the intangible assets under development of 350 crs? Why does an EPC Co need this? Odd.

#justasking
What are the loans and advances of 800 crs+? Why needed given super high inventory levels?

#justasking
How does it generate margins 2x of its peers despite bidding 20% lower than NHAI indicative project cost?

#justasking
Why is P&L so super awesome compared to peers while BS is a big mess? Does BS even matter in a bull market?

#justasking
Why despite superior execution leading to early completion bonuses (mgmt claim) it is struggling to collect receivables?

#justasking
Why has the company barely paid any cash taxes in its operating history?

#justasking
When will the company ever generate FCF or for that matter OCF?

#justasking

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More from @amitmantri

Amit Mantri Profile picture
Aug 28, 2018
The second half of September will have a lot of interesting Hindi movie releases at the same time.

The one I am most looking forward to is Nandita Das' Manto. Has Nawaz playing the title role. If you liked reading Manto's stories you can't miss it.

Then there's Vishal Bhardwaj's Pataakha. After a long time VB is again going back to adapting an old story. Charan Singh Pathik's 'Do Behne' this time.

Sharat Katariya's Sui Dhaaga looks interesting. His Dum Laga Ke Haisha was fantastic. Hoping for equally good music.

Read 4 tweets
Amit Mantri Profile picture
Aug 13, 2018
The Curious Case of PC Jewellers' Trade Receivables (Thread)

Disclosure - No position in PCJ stock or derivative.
PCJ announced its Q1 FY19 results last week. In its mgmt ppt, it also disclosed partial BS information. The info showed that PCJ had reduced its total outstanding debt by over 400 crs. However, what the company didn't disclose is far more interesting than what it did disclose.
The company didn't provide its Receivables number for the Q end. Not in the ppt neither in response to analyst queries in the results concall. However, since the company has provided partial BS info it is possible to estimate what might have happened to the receivables this Q.
Read 9 tweets
Amit Mantri Profile picture
May 29, 2018
We wrote about Manpasand in Dec 2016 and haven’t written another “Curious Case” piece since then. That’s not because there weren’t enough candidates but just that the way some big guys in the ecosystem responded, scared us a bit.

This is a thread about one such Big Guy.
We published the Manpasand note in the evening and thought maybe a 1000 people would read it (which had been the case for our earlier Kitex and JD note). However, for some reason the note went viral and our site crashed.

We got the site up and went to sleep as our job was done.
The next morning the stock opened 12% down. We were quite happy as we felt investors had taken note of our findings. But then the Big Guy hit us with a nasty rebuttal. Read the entire note below.
Read 17 tweets
Amit Mantri Profile picture
Mar 15, 2018
Theranos is a perfect example of how good storytellers are the best conmen.

bloomberg.com/view/articles/…
Once we have been charmed by the story and fallen in love with the storyteller, confirmation bias will kick in to ensure that no data or counterview can change our faith in the fantastic story.
One of the most common responses we get when we make a case that a company is a complete fraud is "But XYZ is an investor." The widely held view is that smart people or large institutions cannot be fooled.
Read 6 tweets
Amit Mantri Profile picture
Mar 9, 2018
The author just brushed aside a plethora of red flags (suspect quality of earnings, lying on the record, not disclosing material conflicts, bad corporate behavior, poor capital allocation, deteriorating profitability) as just "quirks" of an intelligent fanatic.
In the public domain, so many issues have been raised by a number of analysts without any real counter. At least that merited a tempering of the high praise that has been lavished if not a deeper analysis of the issues raised. Hopefully, this is just an error in judgement ...
and not reflective of the low bar we set to call someone an intelligent fanatic. As a member of the community and fan of @iancassel, this was quite disappointing to read.
Read 6 tweets
Amit Mantri Profile picture
Mar 7, 2018
The curious case here - Revenue growth that is only marginally above Total Area growth is mathematically impossible when SSG growth is so high. It would imply that the last 3-4 years store/area addition has a negligible contribution to the current top line.
While FY13-17 growth numbers themselves make little sense, the situation worsens further when FY12 data is also included in the analysis.

Despite 24% area CAGR, revenue growth is only 27%. The result is that Rev/sft has only grown 3% CAGR despite 20% average SSG growth!!
Over long periods, strong SSG growth should result in strong Revenue/Sft growth. This can be seen from D-Mart's numbers whose Rev/sft has doubled.
Read 4 tweets

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