SBM Intelligence Profile picture
Sep 8, 2017 30 tweets 6 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
1/ Politics and governance took centre stage this week, with the FG under fire for a slow response to floods in Benue,
2/ and Amnesty International serving a reminder, where none was needed, of the catastrophic human toll of Boko Haram’s insurgency.
3/ Finally on the reminder trail, Nigeria’s states have always had a thing for debt, and Nnamdi Kanu and IPOB are Nigerian after all.
4/ Juxtaposing bonds that states have taken with the projects for which they were raised paints a dire picture.
5/ Over the years, state governors have borrowed for projects which they are yet to either complete or derive value for citizens.
6/ Accountability for the bonds has generally been opaque, and repayment obligations are a topline charge to the states.
7/ This has contributed greatly to the near bankrupt position of some of these states.
8/ The chickens have come home to roost and the only option many of them desire to take is to borrow even more.
9/ It is a vicious cycle and we are not encouraged by the outcomes we see and predict to happen.
10/ After the lethargic response of @AsoRock, nothing suggests there is any serious effort to deal with further flooding in #Benue.
11/ There are indications that #Cameroon will release water from the Lagdo dam shortly.
12/ Along with expected peaking of the rainy season, we fear that the worst of the flooding is not over.
13/ There are reports the flooding has spread to neighbouring #Kogi. It is unclear what @AsoRock's plan is. It needs to do better.
14/ There have been many unrealistic targets set for the capture or killing of #BokoHaram's factional leader, Abubakar Shekau.
15/ Even worse, there have been more premature declarations of victory against the terrorists.
16/ On July 23, @Buratai_COAS gave the Theatre Commander, Operation Lafiya Dole 40 days to abduct or kill Shekau.
17/ That period has elapsed and there is no sign that @HQNigerianArmy is any closer to its goal.
18/ There is a pressing need for @DefenceInfoNG to restrategise its COIN operations and put the terrorists on the back-foot.
19/ With more that 20,000 people killed over the last eight years, and 7.2 million facing food shortages or outright starvation,
20/ it is also important for @AsoRock to recognise the humanitarian emergency that this conflict is creating in #LakeChad region,
21/ and do all it can to ensure that there is relief, and that government and non-governmental agencies are able to have an effect there.
22/ @nnamdikanu1 and #IPOB have effectively crossed the line from #Biafra’s flagship separatist group to a pan-Nigerian political bloc.
23/ This bloc showed its separatist intents when it called for a boycott of arguably the most important state election before 2019.
24/ Cue in the revolving door of Igbo politicians at the national level and #IPOB statements receiving routine retorts from others.
25/ Reports of infighting within #IPOB, and increasingly vocal dissent from other pro-Biafra groups are interesting.
26/ #IPOB it would seem, in behaving like most Nigerian political groups, has found its place in the mainstream political space.
27/ Nevertheless, the separatist threat remains and underneath the political jockeying by interested actors in #Anambra,
28/ and beyond for political favours from @nnamdikanu1 who remains very popular in parts of the South East,
29/ Tuesday’s interim court ruling is a reminder that the cloud of uncertainty created by the country’s politics,
30/ and growing calls for a renegotiation of its compact have not quite been lifted yet.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh

Keep Current with SBM Intelligence

SBM Intelligence Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!


Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @sbmintelligence

Sep 28, 2018
There was cheery news that regulators had seen the error of their ways regarding indiscriminate use of iron fist tactics.

This step forward was blunted by events such as leap backwards in Osun, a problematic strike action, and a return to bad old habits by a bus company.
On 25 September, @cenbank governor, Godwin Emefiele, said that he was optimistic the regulator would resolve the dispute in a way that will ensure that “everybody will be happy.”

We think this is a belated attempt at reassuring waning investor sentiment towards the country.
A day earlier, @SBGroup, one of four banks @cenbank alleged helped @MTNNG illegally repatriate $8.1 billion, said the regulator may review a decision to penalise its West African unit.
Read 27 tweets
Aug 31, 2018
Aso Rock picked on the bankers of the opposition in a busy week that also saw it acting coy on personal civil liberties and rolling the carpet for two of the EU’s most powerful leaders. All these occurred while cocoa simply could not find its way to the country’s main ports.
@officialEFCC’s interest in @ZenithBank’s transactions involving @riversstategov signals a willingness on the part of @MBuhari's administration to focus on the latter given its pre-eminence in the political architecture of the opposition @OfficialPDPNig.
@riversstategov has emerged as the hub and financial nerve centre of @OfficialPDPNig – a position that has seen its governor, @Gov_Wike, as one of the most important figures within the party's ranks, if not its most influential kingmaker.
Read 19 tweets
Jul 20, 2018
President Obasanjo once called maintaining Nigeria Airways (NAL) irresponsible. Six years later, one of his successors, despite a petition from former NAL employees appealing for ₦45 billion in severance pay, is shopping the world for an investor for a proposed national carrier.
Between a ferocious fight over revenue sharing, and ignoring the obvious on Boko Haram, bad ideas seem to die slowly, such that it has almost obscured the recognition Nigeria’s music industry got from the world’s largest music label.
The latest #BokoHaram attacks don't suggest a resurgence of the group so much as they demonstrate its resilience, capacity for strategic hibernation and stealth.

They also indicate that the financing with which it procures weapons and its recruitment remain largely uninhibited.
Read 27 tweets
Jun 29, 2018
Plateau’s bloody week holds important long-term consequences for the rest of the country, as does our global poverty profile, the President taking a swipe at restructuring advocates, and the finance ministry’s chest thumping while not saying much.
The #Plateau incident underscores the simmering nature of multiple low and medium intensity conflicts occurring across #Nigeria, a historically certain prelude to a total breakdown of law and order.
Inter-communal distrust has continued to escalate with cyclical patterns of strife in conflict areas.

The pervasive loss of confidence in @AsoRock as a neutral arbiter is a key factor in this escalation as it encourages communities to adopt vigilantism with catastrophic results
Read 20 tweets
Jun 6, 2018
Yesterday, a rare joint session of both houses of @nassnigeria met and issued resolutions that has set it on a collision course with @AsoRock, and holds important political and economic consequences for #Nigeria as it stares down the barrel of #election2019.
The tension between the 2 most important arms of the FG, both controlled by @OfficialAPCNg, has endured through the tenure of @MBuhari's administration and is consequential for the party, for the wider political state of the country and in driving economic policy.
Federal lawmakers, in passing a vote of confidence in the principal officers of @NGRSenate and @HouseNGR, condemned the “systematic harassment and humiliation by @AsoRock of perceived political opponents, people with contrary opinions including legislators and the judiciary,”
Read 24 tweets
Jun 1, 2018
The needle shifted a little further into the red zone with concerns over an expanded security vote chest, an import rate hike bound to affect fuel prices, talk of water colonies, and the CBN’s continued fixation on forex.
The glue that holds up the inefficient political system in #Nigeria, and skews it against both the will of the people and a level playing field for better candidates to emerge, is the existence of slush funds that warp campaign funding.
Security votes rank high up in upholding this system.

When the existence of the security votes is taken along with the abysmal security situation across the country, the irony is not lost on observers.
Read 17 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!


0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy


3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!