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1. There is no doubt that this is Germany's #SchwarzeSonntag (Black Sunday). It was long in coming but it came much harder than expected.
2. #AfD breaking 10 percent is highly significant, as German small parties rarely get double digits!
3. It is clearly linked to perceived failure of CDU = Merkel, mostly with regard refugees but also general centrist course.
4. Of more long-term relevance is historic worst results of CDU/CSU and SPD. Together they barely got 55% of vote! Was still ca 75% in 1990.
5. Stagnation of both Die Linke and Greens is also v telling. Cannot profit from losses of SPD. Quite similar in many other European states.
6. Almost 30 years after "unification" Germany is still strongly divided between East and West and Eastern frustrations go beyond Ostalgie. 
7. AfD has dethroned Die Linke as party of Eastern frustration. In West there is less frustration and no real competition.
8. Context is important and specific. D has same right-wing leader for 12 years and comes off Grand Coalition. Ideal for radical right party
9. Actual influence of AfD might be much smaller than now thought (even if they hold faction together). Obviously excluded from coalition.
10. If SPD goes in opposition, as just announced, they will be major opposition party, not AfD!
11. However, media and political spin can make AfD very relevant. And media frame is all about AfD won cause "Germans had enough of Merkel"
12. Response to AfD victory is quite similar to response in Austria and Netherlands to rise of radical right in polls.
13. This means media and right-wing politicians claiming "the people" have been ignored and want fewer immigrants etc etc.
14. Even if this is not that clear from the various polls!
15. This will strengthen the right faction within CDU, as well as CSU within Unionsfraktion, and pull the party to the right.
16. It will also strongly influence the succession struggle within CDU, as Merkel is on her way out. Right-wing will now have initiative.
17. Given FPÖ will enter next Austrian govt, though under nominally mainstream right PM Kurz, this means return of "rise of populism" frame.
18. Which significantly shifts political and public debate to right and makes moribund center left even less influential.
19. In other words, we are almost back to where we started in January 2017. 😖#TheEnd
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