Cas Mudde Profile picture
Sep 24, 2017 20 tweets 4 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
As my @guardian piece is only on #AfD here some general thoughts on #BTW17 results in a #Thread
1. There is no doubt that this is Germany's #SchwarzeSonntag (Black Sunday). It was long in coming but it came much harder than expected.
2. #AfD breaking 10 percent is highly significant, as German small parties rarely get double digits!
3. It is clearly linked to perceived failure of CDU = Merkel, mostly with regard refugees but also general centrist course.
4. Of more long-term relevance is historic worst results of CDU/CSU and SPD. Together they barely got 55% of vote! Was still ca 75% in 1990.
5. Stagnation of both Die Linke and Greens is also v telling. Cannot profit from losses of SPD. Quite similar in many other European states.
6. Almost 30 years after "unification" Germany is still strongly divided between East and West and Eastern frustrations go beyond Ostalgie.
7. AfD has dethroned Die Linke as party of Eastern frustration. In West there is less frustration and no real competition.
8. Context is important and specific. D has same right-wing leader for 12 years and comes off Grand Coalition. Ideal for radical right party
9. Actual influence of AfD might be much smaller than now thought (even if they hold faction together). Obviously excluded from coalition.
10. If SPD goes in opposition, as just announced, they will be major opposition party, not AfD!
11. However, media and political spin can make AfD very relevant. And media frame is all about AfD won cause "Germans had enough of Merkel"
12. Response to AfD victory is quite similar to response in Austria and Netherlands to rise of radical right in polls.
13. This means media and right-wing politicians claiming "the people" have been ignored and want fewer immigrants etc etc.
14. Even if this is not that clear from the various polls!
15. This will strengthen the right faction within CDU, as well as CSU within Unionsfraktion, and pull the party to the right.
16. It will also strongly influence the succession struggle within CDU, as Merkel is on her way out. Right-wing will now have initiative.
17. Given FPÖ will enter next Austrian govt, though under nominally mainstream right PM Kurz, this means return of "rise of populism" frame.
18. Which significantly shifts political and public debate to right and makes moribund center left even less influential.
19. In other words, we are almost back to where we started in January 2017. 😖#TheEnd

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More from @CasMudde

Oct 6, 2018
This weekend Brazilians will go to the polls to elect a new president. #Brazil is fifth biggest country in the world, in terms of population, and symptomatic of a remarkable authoritarian turn in the world's biggest states. #thread
1. China is the biggest country and only non-democracy in top-5. But even here General Secretary Xi Jinping has taken the country in a (even) more authoritarian and nationalist direction.
2. India, the world's largest democracy, has been governed by PM Narendra Modi and his radical right BJP-led coalition since 2014. MOstly ignored by international media, India has seen sharp rise of radical and sometimes violent Hindutva activism.
Read 12 tweets
Sep 12, 2018
I have been arguing for a long time that the EU, and particularly the EPP, should stand up to Viktor Orbán, but I feel nevertheless conflicted on triggering #Article7 - let me explain. #Thread…
1. Although triggering Article 7 does not mean kicking Hungary out of EU (more below), it is starting with the "nuclear option".
2. Orbán and Fidesz have been creating an "illiberal state" since regaining power in 2010. That is 8 years of undermining checks and balances, recreating institutions and filling them with cronies, and creating a kleptocracy on Russian model.
Read 21 tweets
Jul 12, 2018
NEW! @pewglobal has just published an interesting and important report on ideology vs populism in Western Europe (full disclosure: I was consulted on it). Here are some of my quick takes. #Thread
You can find the full study here -->…
1. The main takeaway for politicians and pundits should be that populist parties are NOT the voice of the people! In fact, in almost all countries they are BY FAR the least favored party!
2. Favorability gap between populist and traditional parties is massive in North and substantial in much of South! This is even the case with left populist Podemos (less favorable than PP, although poll before govt crisis!) and most normalized populist radical right party, DF!
Read 14 tweets
Jun 29, 2018
Good piece on EPP and Orbán by ⁦⁦@PoliticoRyan⁩ although he is too forgiving on EPP’s incredible hypocrisy. A few comments. #Thread…
1. I honestly don’t see how EPP comes out of EP2019 weaker, except if Macron joins ALDE (big if).
2. S&D will be real loser of EP2019, losing one of its last big parties in big country because of Brexit while many others have recently been decimated.
Read 18 tweets
Nov 26, 2017
This is supposed to be defense of one of too many uncritical “human interest” @nytimes pieces on neo-Nazis and other far right people. It shows depth of ignorance among journalists.
1. First and foremost, it shows media’s tendency to think in clichés - the purely evil bad person and the purely good victim.
2. Second, it shows the enduring problem of white privilege in the media, undoubtedly strengthened by whiteness of newsrooms as noted by @jbouie
Read 27 tweets
Nov 13, 2017
I think this piece, while more nuanced than "60.000 Neo-Nazis march in Warsaw", still misses many points. #thread…
1. Poland always has had a very strong far right subculture, which is quite diverse, from neo-Nazis, to neo-fascist (Dmowski) to orthodox-Christian nationalists.
2. Because of electoral system and big right-wing umbrella parties far right parties and politicians mainly operated within right-wing parties rather than separately (recent exception: LPR).
Read 21 tweets

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