Thread by @eurosluggard

Some thoughts on #DanHannan's decision to launch a new 'Institute for Free Trade'. 1/x

#InstituteForFreeTrade

Now first up, to be clear: though it has become less fashionable in last few years, I actually agree that freer trade is a good thing. 2/

In principle, freer trade raises prosperity for society at large: lower prices, competition, productivity gains, export opportunities etc 3/

What market zealots often ignore or pay lip-service to: tho it benefits society as a whole, free trade creates winners & losers at home. 4/

So to ensure fairness & public support, it has to be combined with quite interventionist policies on tax, redistribution & labour market. 5/

Generally, ideological free marketeers are less committed to this part of the package which is essential for freer trade to be viable. 6/

When advocated by Brexiters like #DanHannan, there are other things about "free trade" that don't stack up or raise legitimate legit Qs. 7/

First of all the simple-minded ra-ra cheerleading that it's a simple, pain-free, magic bullet. Driving trade liberalisation is tough. 8/

Second, the dog-whistle lie that EU is highly protectionist. A view at least 25 years out of date- like generals fighting the last war. 9/

(Happy to admit UK deserves credit for fact EU no longer very protectionist & actually drives international trade liberalisation... 10/

...not least cos it's yet another example that gives lie to Brexshit claims UK had zero influence on EU & was always getting screwed.) 11/

All big complex economies are protectionist in some areas (US, Japan, Switzerland, Australia- EU not uniquely bad, as argued by twats). 12/

The only economies that practice pure free trade are small exposed economies with few resources or manufacturing- Singapore & Hong Kong. 13/

Singapore & Hong Kong simply not relevant as post-Brexit economic model for UK economy. Those arguing this are disingenuous or deranged. 14/

Third, Brexiters praising free trade, without acknowledging complexities & trade-offs, is phoney. See thread👇. 15/

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So why is #DanHannan, who is an intelligent man, an experienced politician, espousing such a vacuous, vapid position? Well... 16/

#DanHannan= intellectual father of Brexit. At time of Maastricht revolt UK euroscepticism about resisting further integration, not exit. 17/

Then something changed. Under Major's ill-starred govt (92-97) & 13 wilderness years after, Tory party went mad & lost its bearings. 18/

Against this backdrop, #DanHannan's dogged campaigning & oratorical brilliance helped make his cult mainstream. But there was a problem. 19/

You see, #DanHannan's euroscepticism driven by quixotic C18th/C19th notions of free trade, liberalism, sovereignty. All v nice. But... 20/

...those castles in the air, though noble, collided with equally old British values of common sense, pragmatism, don't rock the boat... 21/

On their own, Dan's ideals were never going to overcome the feeling that leaving the EU (for all its imperfections) was a bit nuts. 22/

But then we had world financial crisis, years of austerity & squeezed living stds, strained public services, migrant & euro crises... 23/

..combined with a putrid & demagogic media pursuing its own sinister or knuckle-headed political agenda... 24/

& a political class too craven or ideological to tell voters the truth: there's trade-off between taxation & quality of public services. 25/

In short, perfect storm: UK going through the wringer; liars & cowards in positions of influence blaming the EU bogeyman for all ills. 26/

Now I don't deny a minority of Leavers were swayed by #DanHannan's vision of free trade & liberty. But IMO the other stuff swung it... 27/

A country tempted to tear up its ties with the EU (rather than arguing its case from within) is not a calm, confident, balanced country. 28/

It is a country riven by unease, doubt, anxiety & insecurity. I do not claim that 52% of ppl all voted to Leave for the same reasons... 29/

But to claim concerns about migration or economic insecurity played no part simply defies both evidence & intuition. 30/

But, you see, #DanHannan hates that; he gets irked whenever anyone suggests racism or xenophobia were a factor for *some* of the 52%. 31/

#DanHannan routinely engages in #gaslighting whenever anyone tells of racism in post-EUref UK. Likes to reply, "Oh that never happened". 32/

Same with protectionism & free trade. #DanHannan can't accept that some Leave voters were rejecting globalisation & want more barriers. 33/

#DanHannan is offended by notion anybody voted to Leave for racist reasons or to reject the globalised free trade he holds dear. 34/

So essentially what #DanHannan wants to do with the #InstituteForFreeTrade is reshape the terms of the debate about what drove Brexit. 35/

#DanHannan believes in free trade with religious fervour & has a C19th conception of sovereignty. That's why *he* wanted UK out of EU. 36/

But idea Brexit was about noble ideals of liberty & about restoring glories of a golden age of free trade is looking increasingly shaky 37/

...and runs the risk of being eclipsed by the rising sense that Brexit was in large part driven by darker sentiments. 38/

#DanHannan wants to provide the pro-Brexit media with polished soundbites & factoids to bolster the liberty & free-trade narrative. 39/

He wants to preserve his good name for when the history books come to be written about Brexit (personally I think he's onto a loser). 40/

That's what #DanHannan's #InstituteOfFreeTrade is about. 41/41