Thread by @eurosluggard

Crazy prediction (disclaimer: I’m usually wrong): if Theresa May reshuffles govt in coming weeks, she’ll offer Boris the Home Office. 1/20

The main rationale for a reshuffle is to “refresh” this moribund govt (won’t work) but also to reassert authority. 2/

Boris as FS= so embarrassing & so loathed by foreign govts (that he is supposed to win over to our side) that it’d be fab to move him. 3/

But he still has some cheerleaders on backbenches, grassroots & media (esp Telegraph). A humiliating dismissal would unleash a backlash. 4/

Face-saving solution: move him sideways. Foreign Sec traditionally one of great offices of state (with Chancellor, Home Sec & now DExEU). 5/

Chancellor & DExEU both out of question as Boris the showboater would lack any credibility (with markets & with EU govts respectively). 6/

But Boris at Home Off they might get away with. No less popular than other Tories with police: Ex-Met Cssner was +ve about him on #bbcaq 7/

Boris as Home Sec wd be used to claim Brexit isn’t about raising drawbridge against immigration & UK remains outward-looking. Yes I know..8/

Boris has said many casually racist things but his political base & roots are metropolitan. He’s never majored on net migration target. 9/

NB - Not defending Boris (can’t stand him). Just saying he appeals to Tories/Brexiters who are *desperate* not to be seen as racist... 10/

Boris as Home Sec, in charge of new immigration policy, wd appeal to Tories/Brexit twats desperate for Brexit not to be seen as racist. 11/

NB- Not saying I *want* this to happen. Not saying I think Boris wd be a *good* Home Sec (although at least not a micro-manager)... 12/

...I’m just whiling away a Sunday afternoon keeping myself entertained with speculation about what Theresa May might see as her options..13/

..given she’s too weak a person & too weak & hemmed in politically to do anything bold or decisive like sack Boris, or face down ultras. 14/

Goes w/o saying a reshuffle won’t help “make a success of Brexit” or extend govt’s shelf-life. It’s just rearranging deck-chairs. 15/

In any case, this is moot. BJ won’t accept the offer (even if May makes it); wants excuse to walk (& claim Brexit wasn’t done properly). 16/

The paradox is May wants rid of Boris as desperately as he wants to go. But they both want to be able to claim the moral high ground. 17/

Offering Home Office (swap w Amber Rudd?) wd allow May to claim she’d made a generous offer & Boris was being a primadonna if he quit. 18/

And Amber Rudd as Foreign Sec wd go down well with EU countries to repair Boris’s damage. Yup. More I think about it, more likely seems. 19/

So that’s what I think will happen. Govt engages in futile party kabuki while A50 clock keeps ticking & country heads for disaster. 20/20