Cas Mudde Profile picture
Oct 12, 2017 16 tweets 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Excellent backgrounder to this Sunday’s Austrian elections. Some of my thoughts. #thread…
1. Whatever exact outcome, FPÖ coming second or third, “populism” is back st the center of debates on European Politics.
2. Yet, populism (qua populism) is relatively weak with Kurtz and even FPÖ moderated it (at least vis-a-vis Kurtz).
3. More than anything, this is another election about nativism, and authoritarianism, not so much populism.
4. Just like Rutte in Netherlands, Kurz defeated FPÖ by adopting their nativism and authoritarianism, not their populism.
5. As in 1999-2000, the right-wing shift of social democratic SPÖ will be underplayed in post-election analyses.
6. As in other cases, the newness of right-wing shift of ÖVP and success of FPÖ will be overstated.
7. While explanations of results seem pretty straightforward, consequence of results - likely ÖVP-FPÖ govt under Kurz - are very interesting.
8. First, will it be ÖVP-govt (as Schüssel govts were) or will FPÖ lean heavily on it?
9. Has FPÖ learned from its early 2000s mistakes? Can it be more effective? Can it hold its party together?
10. Will this mean the transfer of power within Strache (govt) and Hofer (parliament). And how do they find balance to keep party united?
11. Where will Kurz govt position itself in current “East-West” rift over immigration? Related: what will its relationship with Orbàn be?
12. How will electoral defeat and govt exclusion affect SPÖ? How will they reposition themselves?
13. Despite “disappointing” result of FPÖ, compared to polls last year, this is going to be remarkable feat. FPÖ returns to power after party split and losing its Führer” (Haider).
14. They will have fewer votes than in 1999, but so will SPÖ and ÖVP. So, it’s important to see current result in contemporary context!
15. Austrian election are great opportunity to study both the old and the new of populist radical right, which will shed light on transformation of European Politics in general. #TheEnd

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More from @CasMudde

Oct 6, 2018
This weekend Brazilians will go to the polls to elect a new president. #Brazil is fifth biggest country in the world, in terms of population, and symptomatic of a remarkable authoritarian turn in the world's biggest states. #thread
1. China is the biggest country and only non-democracy in top-5. But even here General Secretary Xi Jinping has taken the country in a (even) more authoritarian and nationalist direction.
2. India, the world's largest democracy, has been governed by PM Narendra Modi and his radical right BJP-led coalition since 2014. MOstly ignored by international media, India has seen sharp rise of radical and sometimes violent Hindutva activism.
Read 12 tweets
Sep 12, 2018
I have been arguing for a long time that the EU, and particularly the EPP, should stand up to Viktor Orbán, but I feel nevertheless conflicted on triggering #Article7 - let me explain. #Thread…
1. Although triggering Article 7 does not mean kicking Hungary out of EU (more below), it is starting with the "nuclear option".
2. Orbán and Fidesz have been creating an "illiberal state" since regaining power in 2010. That is 8 years of undermining checks and balances, recreating institutions and filling them with cronies, and creating a kleptocracy on Russian model.
Read 21 tweets
Jul 12, 2018
NEW! @pewglobal has just published an interesting and important report on ideology vs populism in Western Europe (full disclosure: I was consulted on it). Here are some of my quick takes. #Thread
You can find the full study here -->…
1. The main takeaway for politicians and pundits should be that populist parties are NOT the voice of the people! In fact, in almost all countries they are BY FAR the least favored party!
2. Favorability gap between populist and traditional parties is massive in North and substantial in much of South! This is even the case with left populist Podemos (less favorable than PP, although poll before govt crisis!) and most normalized populist radical right party, DF!
Read 14 tweets
Jun 29, 2018
Good piece on EPP and Orbán by ⁦⁦@PoliticoRyan⁩ although he is too forgiving on EPP’s incredible hypocrisy. A few comments. #Thread…
1. I honestly don’t see how EPP comes out of EP2019 weaker, except if Macron joins ALDE (big if).
2. S&D will be real loser of EP2019, losing one of its last big parties in big country because of Brexit while many others have recently been decimated.
Read 18 tweets
Nov 26, 2017
This is supposed to be defense of one of too many uncritical “human interest” @nytimes pieces on neo-Nazis and other far right people. It shows depth of ignorance among journalists.
1. First and foremost, it shows media’s tendency to think in clichés - the purely evil bad person and the purely good victim.
2. Second, it shows the enduring problem of white privilege in the media, undoubtedly strengthened by whiteness of newsrooms as noted by @jbouie
Read 27 tweets
Nov 13, 2017
I think this piece, while more nuanced than "60.000 Neo-Nazis march in Warsaw", still misses many points. #thread…
1. Poland always has had a very strong far right subculture, which is quite diverse, from neo-Nazis, to neo-fascist (Dmowski) to orthodox-Christian nationalists.
2. Because of electoral system and big right-wing umbrella parties far right parties and politicians mainly operated within right-wing parties rather than separately (recent exception: LPR).
Read 21 tweets

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