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Excellent backgrounder to this Sunday’s Austrian elections. Some of my thoughts. #thread washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-ca…
1. Whatever exact outcome, FPÖ coming second or third, “populism” is back st the center of debates on European Politics.
2. Yet, populism (qua populism) is relatively weak with Kurtz and even FPÖ moderated it (at least vis-a-vis Kurtz).
3. More than anything, this is another election about nativism, and authoritarianism, not so much populism.
4. Just like Rutte in Netherlands, Kurz defeated FPÖ by adopting their nativism and authoritarianism, not their populism.
5. As in 1999-2000, the right-wing shift of social democratic SPÖ will be underplayed in post-election analyses.
6. As in other cases, the newness of right-wing shift of ÖVP and success of FPÖ will be overstated.
7. While explanations of results seem pretty straightforward, consequence of results - likely ÖVP-FPÖ govt under Kurz - are very interesting.
8. First, will it be ÖVP-govt (as Schüssel govts were) or will FPÖ lean heavily on it?
9. Has FPÖ learned from its early 2000s mistakes? Can it be more effective? Can it hold its party together?
10. Will this mean the transfer of power within Strache (govt) and Hofer (parliament). And how do they find balance to keep party united?
11. Where will Kurz govt position itself in current “East-West” rift over immigration? Related: what will its relationship with Orbàn be?
12. How will electoral defeat and govt exclusion affect SPÖ? How will they reposition themselves?
13. Despite “disappointing” result of FPÖ, compared to polls last year, this is going to be remarkable feat. FPÖ returns to power after party split and losing its Führer” (Haider).
14. They will have fewer votes than in 1999, but so will SPÖ and ÖVP. So, it’s important to see current result in contemporary context!
15. Austrian election are great opportunity to study both the old and the new of populist radical right, which will shed light on transformation of European Politics in general. #TheEnd
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