Thread by @CasMudde

First responses to #nrw17 in #Austria on basis of exit poll results. #thread

1. Just like in first round 2016 presidential elections, FPÖ as only one largely underpolled.

2. This is striking as FPÖ has been polled as radical right party for 30 (!) years.

3. If ÖVP is only 2% bigger than FPÖ this could make coalition more problematic, as FPÖ might ask too much.

4. Unless SPÖ rules it out, Kurz could, and probably will, use option of Grand Coalition to tame FPÖ.

5. ÖVP-FPÖ govt will be even more right-wing than expected. FPÖ will claim more heavy positions (FM, Finance?).

6. This will pull Austria more away from Merkel and toward Orbán.

7. International media will return to “rise of populism” frame, pushing politicians and politics again to authoritarian and nativist ad how responses.

8. After PVV and FN underperforming, this is second time populist radical right overperforms with regard to recent polls (other AfD).

9. It makes FPÖ stronger and more relevant than FN within European radical right. But they will probably not want to lead ENF, rather disengage a bit.

10. ÖVP-FPÖ govt will be perfect moment for FPÖ to officially transfer party leadership from #Strache to #Hofer

11. Most interesting question: has FPÖ learned from dramatic government experience in early 2000s?

12. MAIN LESSON: copying radical right policies does NOT marginalize radical right parties. It keeps them relevant!

13. For all “newness” to #nrw17 remember that result is not much different from 1999! #TheEnd