First responses to #nrw17 in #Austria on basis of exit poll results. #thread
1. Just like in first round 2016 presidential elections, FPÖ as only one largely underpolled.
2. This is striking as FPÖ has been polled as radical right party for 30 (!) years.
3. If ÖVP is only 2% bigger than FPÖ this could make coalition more problematic, as FPÖ might ask too much.
4. Unless SPÖ rules it out, Kurz could, and probably will, use option of Grand Coalition to tame FPÖ.
5. ÖVP-FPÖ govt will be even more right-wing than expected. FPÖ will claim more heavy positions (FM, Finance?).
6. This will pull Austria more away from Merkel and toward Orbán.
7. International media will return to “rise of populism” frame, pushing politicians and politics again to authoritarian and nativist ad how responses.
8. After PVV and FN underperforming, this is second time populist radical right overperforms with regard to recent polls (other AfD).
9. It makes FPÖ stronger and more relevant than FN within European radical right. But they will probably not want to lead ENF, rather disengage a bit.
10. ÖVP-FPÖ govt will be perfect moment for FPÖ to officially transfer party leadership from #Strache to #Hofer
11. Most interesting question: has FPÖ learned from dramatic government experience in early 2000s?
12. MAIN LESSON: copying radical right policies does NOT marginalize radical right parties. It keeps them relevant!
13. For all “newness” to #nrw17 remember that result is not much different from 1999! #TheEnd

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More from @CasMudde

Oct 6, 2018
This weekend Brazilians will go to the polls to elect a new president. #Brazil is fifth biggest country in the world, in terms of population, and symptomatic of a remarkable authoritarian turn in the world's biggest states. #thread
1. China is the biggest country and only non-democracy in top-5. But even here General Secretary Xi Jinping has taken the country in a (even) more authoritarian and nationalist direction.
2. India, the world's largest democracy, has been governed by PM Narendra Modi and his radical right BJP-led coalition since 2014. MOstly ignored by international media, India has seen sharp rise of radical and sometimes violent Hindutva activism.
Read 12 tweets
Sep 12, 2018
I have been arguing for a long time that the EU, and particularly the EPP, should stand up to Viktor Orbán, but I feel nevertheless conflicted on triggering #Article7 - let me explain. #Thread theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
1. Although triggering Article 7 does not mean kicking Hungary out of EU (more below), it is starting with the "nuclear option".
2. Orbán and Fidesz have been creating an "illiberal state" since regaining power in 2010. That is 8 years of undermining checks and balances, recreating institutions and filling them with cronies, and creating a kleptocracy on Russian model.
Read 21 tweets
Jul 12, 2018
NEW! @pewglobal has just published an interesting and important report on ideology vs populism in Western Europe (full disclosure: I was consulted on it). Here are some of my quick takes. #Thread
You can find the full study here --> pewglobal.org/2018/07/12/in-…
1. The main takeaway for politicians and pundits should be that populist parties are NOT the voice of the people! In fact, in almost all countries they are BY FAR the least favored party!
2. Favorability gap between populist and traditional parties is massive in North and substantial in much of South! This is even the case with left populist Podemos (less favorable than PP, although poll before govt crisis!) and most normalized populist radical right party, DF!
Read 14 tweets
Jun 29, 2018
Good piece on EPP and Orbán by ⁦⁦@PoliticoRyan⁩ although he is too forgiving on EPP’s incredible hypocrisy. A few comments. #Thread politico.eu/article/viktor…
1. I honestly don’t see how EPP comes out of EP2019 weaker, except if Macron joins ALDE (big if).
2. S&D will be real loser of EP2019, losing one of its last big parties in big country because of Brexit while many others have recently been decimated.
Read 18 tweets
Nov 26, 2017
This is supposed to be defense of one of too many uncritical “human interest” @nytimes pieces on neo-Nazis and other far right people. It shows depth of ignorance among journalists. nyti.ms/2i621hr
1. First and foremost, it shows media’s tendency to think in clichés - the purely evil bad person and the purely good victim.
2. Second, it shows the enduring problem of white privilege in the media, undoubtedly strengthened by whiteness of newsrooms as noted by @jbouie
Read 27 tweets
Nov 13, 2017
I think this piece, while more nuanced than "60.000 Neo-Nazis march in Warsaw", still misses many points. #thread wapo.st/2hpCV92?tid=ss…
1. Poland always has had a very strong far right subculture, which is quite diverse, from neo-Nazis, to neo-fascist (Dmowski) to orthodox-Christian nationalists.
2. Because of electoral system and big right-wing umbrella parties far right parties and politicians mainly operated within right-wing parties rather than separately (recent exception: LPR).
Read 21 tweets

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