Dr Liam Wagner Profile picture
Oct 17, 2017 100 tweets 48 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
1/x Removing the Clean Energy Target will weaken the Australian Electricity Sector in the Long Term. #auspol #energypolicy #energycrisis
2/x Clean Energy Target is a mechanism to facilitate the electricity sector as it responds to a CO2 constrained future #energypolicy #auspol
3/x The stationary energy sector is one of the largest emitters of CO2
4/x renewable energy will be required to manage the transition and decarbonise the electricity sector #energypolicy #auspol #energycrisis
5/x The electricity generation fleet have never had to respond to a change of this magnitude before. #energypolicy #energycrisis #auspol
6/x while the electricity sector has had to respond to shocks before, what has made them resilient in the past no longer holds #energypolicy
7/x Resilience in the energy sector is its adaptive capacity to respond to unexpected shocks. #energypolicy #auspol
8/x Robustness is the electricity sectors ability to respond to predictable, longer duration disturbances. #energypolicy #auspol
9/x electricity systems are like ecosystems, integrated networks of keystone processes that interact with each other #energypolicy #auspol
10/x power systems are fundamental components of the economy and are critical to economic growth #energypolicy #auspol
11/x The evolution of Australia's electricity sector has been based on the
supply of local resources, mainly #coal #energypolicy #auspol
12/x The electricity sector is also limited in its ability to shift production off shore (thank goodness) #energypolicy #auspol
13/x Removing the Clean Energy Target limits Australia's ability to diversify its generation fleet and resist shocks #energypolicy #auspol
14/x Australia needs #energypolicy which is consistent with a carbon constrained future #auspol
15/x Removing the Clean Energy Target leaves Australia vulnerable to stochastic events & makes our electricity system vulnerable #auspol
16/x the National Energy Guarantee is the least desirable solution to energy security and is a multi-objective optimization problem #auspol
17/x Firstly, the NEG doesn't address the 4 A's of energy security, Affordability, Accessibility, Availability or Acceptability #auspol
18/x Affordability in the electricity sector requires more than platitudes and relying on coal to provide supply.
19/x the wholesale market will not change its bidding behaviour. As we discussed several times goo.gl/r1AzoS #auspol #energypolicy
20/x volatility will continue while gas is needed/used in the fleet mix regardless of carbon pricing or not goo.gl/EB8yzf #auspol
21/x wholesale market prices are a smaller propotion of retail prices compared to network costs #auspol
22/x if that's the case then, what will an Tsar address from and Affordability from an Electricity perspective. Well nothing really. #auspol
23/x so who should address Affordability of Electricity? Those lovely funsters at ACCC and AER. Or should states reregulate again #auspol
24/x well states have the jurisdiction. How do we know this? It's what used to happen until liberalisation #auspol
25/x so how does the NEG and Energy Security Board address Accessibility of electricity? Well this needs the ESB to address use #auspol
26/x We have a 99% connection rate. So it's more to do with energy usage. Let's posit, that energy efficiency is a benchmark #auspol
27/x will the ESB improve energy efficiency standards for appliances? Nah. #auspol
28/x will the ESB or the new energy Tsar assist welfare recipients to replace old inefficient white goods. Nah
29/x will their be any serious attempt to integrate Demand Side Management into the NEM or dare I say it consumer demand. Nah #auspol
30/x DSM contracts with bulky supply customers is still in its infancy. We won't get 5% curtailment from industry any time soon #auspol
31/x air con compressor guidance and control has been trialled as part of smart cities in Qld via ripple control. It's awesome #auspol
32/x but how did that smart Grid, smart cities program go? Dunno, it died. Probably to become some Internet of Things Baloney #auspol
33/x but air con guidance and curtailment is easy. Why? We already do it with hot water systems. It's via ripple control. Qldahhhh #auspol
34/x moving onto Availability, we need to consider the transmission level first. #energypolicy #auspol
35/x so how does the Availability of electricity improve? A generation fleet that remains reliable & an adequate transmission system #auspol
36/x is coal fired electricity reliable? Well yes and no. They are highly available, But who would fund a new one? #energypolicy #auspol
37/x the NEG seeks to provide what we should have had. A capacity payment system. And where do they run this weird system? Oh WA #auspol
38/x but is it worth while implementing capacity payments? Nah, it's easy to game & money for jam. See Documentary of the week #auspol
39/x the NEG will also require lower emission generation and dispatchable capacity. So what's the emissions reduction target? #auspol
40/x the NEG won't address reliable transmission. Why? We don't know yet. Perhaps the states will all pay for more transmission #auspol
41/x or perhaps transmission is too hard. Interconnection requires more planning and costs a fortune. Funny about that #auspol
42/x coordination in the electricity market, COAG and the Ministerial Council on Energy has always worked well in the past. #auspol
43/x transmission linking states is so important it's not funny. Tasmania's energy crisis can attest to that #auspol abc.net.au/news/2016-04-1…
44/x Availability of electricity only marginally improved by NEG. Quasicapacity payments for dispatchables no transmission planning #auspol
45/x Acceptability might be address by requirements for low emissions generation. Great, what's the target? We'll always have Paris #auspol
46/x Romantic notions aside. What's the Carbon Abatement target of the NEG? We did have one. It was working. #energypolicy #auspol
47/x we already have/had dual mechanisms to improve the technology used to generate electricity and reduce emissions #auspol
48/x we had a target to improve diversity in technologies for electricity generation. #auspol #energypolicy
49/x it was working. More renewables were starting to become available and edge out technologies created in the 1850s #auspol
50/x but still coal is still a huge proportion of the electricity supply chain #auspol #energypolicy #auspol
51/x but energy policy has been lacking for far too long to have address security of supply #auspol
52/x spare capacity and retirements are of serious concern, that can't be improved by political balnoney policy #auspol #energypolicy
53/x baloney aside. We actually have a pretty reliable electricity system. Its 99.998% reliable from the power point. #auspol
54/x we have an expensive system relative to the old days. Thanks btw to our funster friends at the @ABSStats for the graph #auspol
55/x Energy Security Board or the energy Tsar, will not able to tell us who sells the cheapest electricity #auspol #energypolicy
56/x why? Try to decipher the difference between mobile phone contracts. Retail competition for electricity makes it allot harder #auspol
57/x so back to energy security as a conceptual fabric. Resilience of electricity systems is a measure its ability to resist shocks #auspol
58/x Australias electricity system has not been resilient for some time #auspol #energypolicy goo.gl/qF3Jv7
59/x Electricity System resilience has been moving from 2008 levels consistently goo.gl/jPLf2F
60/x The carneys in the coal mine have long tweeted and fallen off the perch. Electricity Sector in Australia has driven out metals #auspol
61/x Australian electricity sector has lagged behind its global counter parts in demand growth from metals goo.gl/jPLf2F #auspol
62/x resilience is key to understanding a systems performance standards and some aspects of security goo.gl/jPLf2F #auspol
63/x So if the NEG is the dual problem of optimising dispatch to met demand and reducing carbon emissions. What has really changed? #auspol
64/x Well quite frankly in the Grand Ole Oprey of political discourse on #energypolicy the NEG is actually just a new wrapper #auspol
65/x So what does this all mean from an #energypolicy perspective because I'm pretty sure we already multiple mechanisms in place #auspol
66/x I'm pretty sure we had a mechanism to provide reliable dispatch, frequency control and ancillary services. #auspol #energypolicy
67/x im pretty sure the NEG brings nothing new to renewable energy generation investment and market integration #auspol #energypolicy
68/x I'm pretty sure the NEG doesn't effect gas prices or Availability ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v… #auspol #energypolicy
69/x The NEG certainly won't force generators from changing their investment behaviour in new plant stock ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/7… #auspol
70/x will the NEG reduce carbon emissions as effectively as a carbon price imposed via cap-and-trade ideas.repec.org/a/eee/renene/v… #auspol
71/x will the NEG enhance security of supply while reducing older technologies influence on the grid? ideas.repec.org/p/ags/aare09/4…
72/x will the NEG improve the transmission networks scope and scale to ensure inter state trade and market balancing? #auspol #energypolicy
73/x will the NEG improve electricity prices and availability for regional Australia? #auspol #energypolicy ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/6…
74/x will the electricity sector in Australia reverse its carbon emissions abatement with the NEG? ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/7… #auspol
75/x the Electicity sector has lost its battle to improve competition #auspol #energypolicy
76/x especially in the generation sector. Does the NEG seek to reduce anticompetitive bidding behaviour? #energypolicy #auspol
77/x the current market design is failing to improve allocative efficiency. I doubt the NEG will be able to address it #energypolicy #auspol
78/x will the NEG improve dynamic efficiency? Current market design and mechanisms haven't #auspol #energypolicy
79/x will the NEG improve productive efficiency in the NEM? Current design stopped doing that in 2008 #auspol #energypolicy
80/x will the Energy Tsar have any teeth to protect consumers rights? #energypolicy #auspol
81/x oh wait, doesn't the ACCC, AER and state based competition authorities already do that? #auspol #energypolicy goo.gl/qF3Jv7
82/x will the energy Tsar be able to intervene in the gas market? For what purpose? #energypolicy #auspol
83/x with gas supply and international linkage what could possibly go wrong? #energypolicy #auspol
84/x because the strategic capacity withdrawals, mergers and acquisitions in the gas market in Australia seems to be going well #auspol
85/x will the Energy Tsar be an entity that is capable of dealing with rising disconnection rates in the retail electricity market #auspol
86/x how will wholesale market bidding be effected by a mechanism to reduce carbon? Will be predictable? #auspol #energypolicy
87/x will black and brown coal be grandfathered into some emissions shadow pricing mechanism? #auspol #energypolicy
88/x will the carbon pass through rate for a shadow carbon mechanism be more of a hinderance than a cap and trade price? #auspol
89/x will the transmission and distribution use of service charges and and network revenues be reined in? #auspol
90/x I've finally reached the nervous 90s but to be honest all I can think about is Affordability. #auspol #energypolicy
91/x hardship programs for retail electricity customers are no way to live #auspol #energypolicy
92/x stagnation in renewable energy policy in the last 4 years has led us to this pseudocrisis in the Australian electricity sector. #auspol
93/x there is no #energycrisis it's simply a failure of #energypolicy ideas.repec.org/a/eee/renene/v… #auspol
94/x renewable energy is a scapegoat of the empire, for the inaction on managing the changing energy market conditions #auspol #energypolicy
95/x inaction on climate change will make it far more difficult for us to adapt to a carbon constrained world #energypolicy #auspol
96/x there is zero confidence in the capacity of this government to create & implement new policy without looking over its shoulder #auspol
97/x 2white papers under the previous government attest as to how hard #energypolicy is perceived to be #auspol
98/x 4 green papers on energy policy & its implications for the Australian economy are thrown into the circular file to start a new #auspol
99/x all to be forgotten for political ideology that lacks the foresight on what energy does for the economy #auspol #energypolicy
💯/ 💯 the NEG and Energy Security Board are merely mechanisms to abrogate the federal governments responsibility to create energy policy.

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