ΛDΛTIVS Profile picture
Oct 22, 2017 22 tweets 5 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
1. This is fascinating work & I recommend checking out @ValuesStudies but it raises some important questions about populations THREAD/
2. The Inglehart–Welzel Cultural axis makes a lot of sense but by listing countries it treats national populations as homogenous groups.
3. (Ignoring for a moment the potential for sampling issues in the data collection.)
4. For countries at the extreme of an axis (eg Qatar/Japan, Moldova/Canada) you can assume the cultural perspective represents the majority.
5. So in Canada, irrespective of their religious/secular views, most ppl believe in liberal (tolerant, egalitarian & participatory) values;
6. While in Qatar, regardless of social tolerance, ppl basically all associate with conservative (religious, family & nationalist) values.
7. Problems arise, however, when countries fall on the zero of an axis - it could be that the country's population is genuinely centrist,
8. a bell-curve distributed around the mean. But what if, in some countries, the distribution is in fact bi-modal?
9. What if the genuinely problematic socio-cultural divisions are internal, resulting from truly heterogeneous pops? eg look at US & UK:
10. Both rank highly on self-expression but hover about the mean on traditional/national scale hwvr #Trump & #Brexit suggest heterogeneity.
11. In reality those countries are divided, with ½ pop looking like Finland & ½ more like Mexico (or even as extreme as Sweden vs Ghana).
12. Future of conflict in West may well be internal, with divergent pops at odds with one another & external forces exacerbating divisions.
13. Gone are the days of US/UK trying to "pull" LatAm countries upwards on chart or (former-)Communist countries rightwards;
14. Recent US policy has been to try & "drag" Islamic countries from bottom left towards top right, largely through occupation/intervention;
15. This has not worked & the movement that has been made is mostly due to internal social forces. And then... there's Russia.
16. Russia knows boots-on-ground is not enough & have perfected #HybridWarfare tactics in Syria & elsewhere, disrupting internal progress.
17. As @J_amesp, @LibertySTRATCOM etc have shown, same RU tactics being effectively deployed to widen growing divides in centrist countries.
18. So question is: if US, UK, etc are rich, powerful, liberal but divided nations, & if liberty is likely what promotes divisions,
19. how can #AlrernativeWar successfully be conducted against states that are not free, where dissent & division is crushed? The West still
20. hasn't graduated from the Cold War tactic of (paradoxically) using military might to try & promote "liberty" in proxy war sites.
21. I don't know what the answer is but i do think the Inglehart–Welzel chart provided useful perspective to look at things differently /END

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