Thread by @gmhales

Arrests down, blame the police?

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According to the Crime Survey for England and Wales crime is down a lot; police recorded crime has been rising in recent years.

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We know police recorded is up partly due to more reported crimes being recorded by forces, esp less serious

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What abt all the 5m fraud & computer misuse offences the CSEW now tells us abt? Transnational, organised, industrialised = few arrests

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Next: pre-2010 numerous targets incentivised arrests - eg OBTJs. Whitehall targets were removed by T May. gov.uk/government/spe…

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Lid was lifted on eg #CSE #CSA in Rotherham & Rochdale, attention shifted fr 'volume' to harm/#vulnerability bbc.com/news/uk-englan…

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Complexity of much police work increased accordingly, esp investigative workloads. All else equal = fewer proactive resources, arrests.

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Reforms to #stopsearch - most fr Govt, some pressure fr eg @ehrc - has led to huge falls in volumes of #stopsearch & resulting arrests

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Reforms to Code G of PACE in 2012 meant the bar for 'necessity' of arrest was set higher = fewer arrests gov.uk/government/pub…

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Reforms to pre-charge bail, use of which has fallen greatly, may have served to further disincentivise arrest

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And of course the #policeworkforce has shrunk. By Mar17 there were 20,592 fewer police officers than in 2010 (-14.3%)

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Even in @metpoliceuk which (til now) has protected officer nos, now many fewer in borough/volume crime roles

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Concl: taking a broad & balanced view, the fall in arrests has *many* causes. No basis for concl police pursuing 'soft justice'. /Ends

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There is a 'but'. Arrest rates vary signficantly between forces.

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