Thread by @eurosluggard

Some ppl asking, “What happens if parliament votes to reject Brexit deal but Article 50 window almost closed?” Here’s my view...1/

Govt falls. New govt must go back & ask for better deal. EU refuses unless UK willing to offer additional concessions on its “red lines”. 2/

Govt goes back to parliament & says, “This is best deal available unless we are more flexible. Over to you, sovereign parliament...” 3/

By this time, public opinion has swung further against Brexit (say, 60/40- extrapolation of what’s happened since 2016 as reality hits). 4/

Parl must choose between a) crash out b) accept shitty deal or c) instruct govt to revoke Art50 [fudge: presented domestically as pause]. 5/

Only option (c) stands any chance of getting a parliamentary majority [of course, both CON & LAB will split, but Tories worse]. 6/

Some former Brexiters will pivot by claiming to be supporting (c) with heavy heart & only cos “pause for reflection” not abandonment. 7/

Corbyn’s LAB will of course be sorely tempted to trigger an election but may be persuaded to back off this for a time-limited period if...8/

...if by doing so it can avoid picking up either of the twin hot potatoes of Brexit (seeing it through or killing it). In these circs... 9/

LAB may well choose to participate in (or prop up) some kind of time-limited de facto govt of national unity to deal with big emergency. 10/

So UK govt swallows its pride & decides it wants to abandon Brexit. How does EU react? Does it dispute revocability of Art50? 11/

Will ultimately be a political decision. I suspect there’d initially be a split among EU member states so hard to know how it would go. 12/

But I suspect if UK lobbies hard & gets its friends to lobby hard, it might, just might, be able to win over any hold-outs. After all... 13/

if UK is claiming a change of heart, it will be awkward PR to be isolated, camping on a legal(istic) position that A50 can’t be revoked. 14/

I’ve always believed that UK in EU is win-win: best for both *but only if (big if) UK attitude shifts to constructive participation*... 15/

if UK is going to remain obstructive, truculent then EU is better off cauterising the Brexit wound & being rid of us once & for all. 16/

So if new UK govt tests water for A50 revocation, key issue for EU will be, “Has UK had a real, big-time, change of heart about the EU?” 17/

If I were the EU side, I would see govt offer to hold #EUref2 as only way to confirm UK’s #WillOfThePeople has changed. Otherwise.... 18/

any future UK govt may start w good intent but be hamstrung at home by Leavers’ guerrilla tactics. Indisputable Remain mandate needed. 19/

If a solution of this kind were in the offing, my hunch is that EU would find will & way to “stop the A50 clock”. 20/

(I haven’t changed view that binary referendums on complex constitutional issues= abomination. But thnx to CaMoron genie out of bottle.) 21/

Politically, 50.1% wouldn’t be enough to overturn the encrusted “will of the people” bullshit accumulated since June 2016. 22/

Winning margin would have to be >52/48 to be politically solid. But poll trend suggests that’s achievable with a gutsy campaign. 23/

NB- I’m not naive. Even if we stop Brexit, the poison & polarisation it has pumped into our body politic will go on for a v long time. 24/

But that’s not an argument for passive acquiescence in something we know to be a disaster. So have to overcome this setback & rebuild. 25/