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Peter Foster Profile picture
@pmdfoster
Nov 13, 2017 • 16 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X
So #BorisJohnson and friends are not signed up to €40bn-€60bn #BrexitBill - as we reported

Does that matter? Are they right to be cautious? Where are May/Davis/DexEU on this? Where are the EU? 1/Thread

telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/11/1…
First the bill.

In Florence speech May made two commitments.

1) No EU member will "pay more or receive less over the remainder of the current budget plan" (2014-2020) - so UK pays 2 x €10bn - viz €20bn to fill hole in current EU budget left by Brexit /2

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More from @pmdfoster

Peter Foster Profile picture
Oct 4, 2018
So what did @eucopresident say to @campaignforleo at their meeting today?

Yesterday @simoncoveney was talking "flexibility". /1
@eucopresident @campaignforleo @simoncoveney Then this morning, the FT reported that Ireland was prepared to back British proposal for all-UK customs arrangement on the backstop /2
@eucopresident @campaignforleo @simoncoveney This wasn't surprising. Always been Dublin ambition, but clearly they need to balance need to preserve UK-IE trade, with being good EU27 citizens and defending integrity of single market.

The Irish FT briefing was seen as a sign of helpfulness on UK side.

Then today...

/3
Read 7 tweets
Peter Foster Profile picture
Oct 4, 2018
Interesting case this.... Poland puts activist on SIS II watchlist that banned her from Schengen Zone.

Germany issued visa nonetheless, so she could attend conference attacking Polish government

Poland unhappy. More here 1/

ft.com/content/1d341a…
Now it seems like the British government also issued her a visa.

The fitness of the Polish judicial system is already under review relating to the European Arrest Warrant.

Now it seems like Germany and UK are not showing solidarity with Poland on Schengen Information System./2
The activist says she's in trouble because of a Facebook post her husband made calling for peaceful civil disobedience against Poland judicial reforms.

Poland justified the ban saying her NGO has "opaque" funding. /3

polandinenglish.info/38582999/reaso…
Read 5 tweets
Peter Foster Profile picture
Oct 2, 2018
What's happening in #Brexit...lots of noise about on the post Salzburg plan... here's what I know, with inputs from both sides.

1/Thread
So let's start with the post-Salzburg plan. Multiple versions about - I've written on Chequers 2.0, as has @SamuelMarcLowe and @JohnSpringford of @CER_EU whose paper is here: cer.eu/insights/after… /2
@SamuelMarcLowe @JohnSpringford @CER_EU The shorter version is this:

1) All-UK for customs on NI backstop, but accept SM checks unique to NI, with some de-dramatised checks (for regs) on NI-GB border.

2) To move to park the NI customs backstop stand-off by agreeing a "Temporary Customs Arrangement" /3
Read 20 tweets
Peter Foster Profile picture
Oct 1, 2018
Very quick thread on why Hunt's frustration with EU is understandable, but ultimately counter-productive /1

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
Let's be clear, there has been some silly stuff from both sides - @EmmanuelMacron should know better that talking about "liars" and @eucopresident trolling May on Instagram is also pretty daft. /2
@EmmanuelMacron @eucopresident But divorces get like this: both sides know the mud-slinging it is counter-productive, "bad for the kids" but still can't help themselves.

Jeremy Hunt's speech was pretty much student union level stuff, as has been pointed out. /3
Read 9 tweets
Peter Foster Profile picture
Sep 28, 2018
So @BorisJohnson has put out his "plan" for #Brexit.

Predictably, it has had holes picked in it - since there are indeed plenty of mighty assumptions in the 'plan'.

But I fear that misses the point. This is a political document, not a technical one. 1/

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
@BorisJohnson And when you read it in that light, it becomes rather more persuasive.

Brexit is indeed a muddle and a mess. The British frog is indeed being boiled. Brexit probably always was/is more binary than both sides have properly allowed. /2
@BorisJohnson I am not at all sure Boris is right that Whitehall and the EU conspired to keep the UK in a customs union, for example, but that will be a powerful anti-narrative if that's where we end up.

FWIW my conversations in Europe suggest rather different. /3
Read 6 tweets
Peter Foster Profile picture
Sep 23, 2018
These divisions were always over-reported and over-spun by No-10. Yes, some say different but in 27 context (viz Orban last week) they don’t. And drill down with their dips on how far they really support splitting freedoms? Not so much. I’ve tried. Doesn’t stack up IMO.
Then May/No10 over reads what she gets told in bilaterals (where she is wooden and hopeless) and takes what one EU dip from big EU state said to me were “mere generalities, pleasantries” about “wanting a deal” for a willingness to cross major red lines. Salzburg says not.
May’s problem is that she’s asking for special treatment in the Trump-Orban-Salvini era and Macron’s people says he sees Brexit in that sweep. As does Commission and Berlin (though less aggressively) which makes U.K. pitch v hard.
Read 5 tweets

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