Seth Hanlon Profile picture
Nov 30, 2017 16 tweets 6 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
My colleague @ggrhendricks and I looked at how much @SenRonJohnson and @RealDonaldTrump could benefit from the last-minute sweetener that was added to the #GOPTaxBill today. 1/
Johnson, joined by Senator Steve Daines, has been pushing make the huge loophole that the bill creates for people like Johnson and Trump even bigger. 2/
The underlying Senate bill allows a 17.4% deduction from net income from passthrough entities (e.g., S-corps, LLCs, partnerships), meaning that the top tax rate on that income would effectively be cut from 39.6% to 31.8%. 3/
Johnson and Daines have reportedly negotiated that down to 30.8% (by increasing the deduction from 17.4% to 20%). 4/…
Per his public financial disclosure, Johnson owns a number of passthrough business entities, including his plastics business and an LLC that holds commercial real estate. 5/…
Trump owns more than 500 passthrough business entities under the umbrella of the Trump Organization. 6/…
Based on the disclosures, by our best estimates, in 2016, Johnson had between $215,000 and $2 million of passthrough business income. Trump had between $156M and $160M. If you take an avg. of those ranges, Johnson had $1.1M of passthrough income and Trump had $158M. 7/
We should note that the income reported on the financial disclosures is an imperfect proxy for taxable income. But it’s the best estimate there is from public information when...ahem...YOU DON’T HAVE SOMEONE’S TAX RETURNS. 8/
Therefore, we can estimate *roughly* that the passthrough rate cut in the underlying Senate bill would reduce Johnson’s taxes by $88,000. And the changes he negotiated today would bump that up to $100,000. 9/
We can also estimate *roughly* that the passthrough rate cut in the underlying bill would reduce Trump’s taxes by $12.3 million. The new changes would increase that to $13.9M -- an additional $1.6 million annual windfall for Trump.

That happened in the Senate. Today.

Meanwhile, in Missouri today, Trump said the tax plan “will cost me a fortune. Believe me. Believe me, this is not good for me.” 11/…
Of course, we can’t get a more precise estimate of how much Trump will benefit from the tax plan, because he has broken his promise to release his tax returns.

And because the Republicans that control both houses of Congress have kept Trump’s tax returns secret.

Republicans in Congress have voted in lockstep to reject every Democratic attempt to use Congress’s authority to obtain Trump’s tax returns from the IRS. 13/

It keeps getting worse. Johnson is reportedly trying to negotiate his and Trump's tax rate down from 30.8% to 28.9% (by expanding the deduction from 20% to 25%).

That would be another $22,000 annual tax cut for Johnson & another $3 million for Trump. (again, this is rough)

They are now on the brink of passing this tax bill, which gives a windfall to people like Johnson and Trump, while raising taxes on tens of millions of working and middle-class families – including 87 million by 2027. 15/…
But the fight isn’t over. And you can make your voice heard by calling both your senators.

The Senate switchboard is 202-224-3121.

And here, you can find our list of the most pivotal senators:


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More from @SethHanlon

Nov 30, 2017

Whistleblower: The Treasury analysis showing that tax cuts pay for themselves that Mnuchin has been promising (and even suggested already exists!) DOES NOT EXIST AT ALL. Career economists shut out of the process! 1/
Link to bombshell @arappeport story:…

Mnuchin said on Nov. 13 that they had already published this nonexistent analysis.

Read 9 tweets
Nov 28, 2017
I really don’t know where @SenBobCorker is going with this idea of a “trigger,” but it’s critical that he is asked some specific questions this week to hold him to his promises. 1/
Those questions include:

(A) how is he applying his preferred “current policy” baseline to the Senate tax bill, given its many sunsetting provisions?

(B) what revenue levels need to be hit to avoid the trigger? 2/
Remember, Corker has promised not to vote for any bill that adds “one penny” to deficits because deficits are “the greatest threat to our nation.” 3/…
Read 22 tweets
Nov 18, 2017
WOW. We knew the Senate Republican tax bill was bad but these graphs from the Institute for Taxation and Economic Policy (@iteptweets) are still shocking.

The bill RAISES taxes on low- and middle-income households while cutting them on high-income households.

The top 1% gets a tax cut of $9,000 in 2027. At the same time that the poorest income groups get a tax hike of about $200. 2/
You won't believe this but it's true. The Senate GOP bill gives a bigger tax cut to FOREIGN INVESTORS than any group of U.S. taxpayers. In fact, the bottom 60% is basically paying for the tax cut for foreign investors.

America First? Country first? Make America Great Again?

Read 9 tweets
Nov 17, 2017
I stand by my tweets 100% on this. The WSJ here quotes the industry and congressional sponsors. The issue is complicated, and it is a real issue. 1/
The provision that was put into the tax bill on Tuesday night settles a longrunning dispute between the jet management companies and the IRS, providing very valuable certainty for them. 2/
It did so in the SAME overnight amendment that made all of the tax cuts in the bill for individuals expire after 2025. Which will create vast uncertainty for everyone. 3/
Read 12 tweets
Nov 17, 2017
One of the more insidious ways that corporations game our political system is by funding intellectually shoddy work that supports their policy goals. This is a thread about an organization here in Washington called the “Tax Foundation.” 1/
The Tax Foundation has gained a lot of credence in the debates on tax policy. Its experts are often quoted in the press. They are smart people. 2/
But the fact is, the Tax Foundation is a mission-driven, advocacy organization that advocates for tax cuts, and especially, corporate tax cuts. 3/
Read 28 tweets
Nov 15, 2017
It's 1am, and the Senate tax bill markup begins in 9 hours, and I'm just stumbling across this "personhood" language they've added to the bill. 1/
An utterly gratuitous attack on reproductive rights, buried in a so-called "tax reform" bill, slipped in at midnight. 2/
The House bill has a similar provision. Here, @ilyseh explains what's going on here. Republicans are trying to insert this kind of personhood language somewhere, anywhere, in law, to establish a definition of when life begins.… 3/
Read 8 tweets

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