Thread by @Natsecjeff

<Thread> Some thoughts on Pakistan in President Trump's National Security Strategy:

- The updated US #NSS is same old: pressure Pakistan, carrots & sticks, etc. This has stopped working for a long time and it won't start working now.

- America has failed in Afghanistan to achieve its official objectives (forget about unofficial objectives for now). US now must blame Pakistan to save face. People are asking: how did ISKP + dozens of other groups pop up in AFG right under nose of US & NATO? #NSS

- Pakistan will likely stay committed to its current position regardless of how much pressure is applied by US, which let's face it, won't be much since Pakistan still holds important cards in Afghanistan. There's no way more pressure will change anything.

- Pakistan is also actually right when it says that it has removed all organized militant presence on its soil. This has been acknowledged not only by CENTCOM but also by the Russians, British and Chinese. Pakistan also points out that Taliban control 50% of AFG today.

- When Taliban controls 50% (some would say even more than 50%) of AFG, they don't need any base in Pakistan. Recently when Afghan govt invited Taliban to open office in Kabul, they laughed it off and pointed out how much territory they control in AFG. #NSS

- That leaves us with Haqqani Network. That's something which is of utmost importance to US and something on which Pakistan may actually be able to help, but I don't know how much Pakistan will be *willing* to help. Pakistan would need very good reasons to dump the Haqqani card.

- Pakistan has serious reservations with US policy in AFG, which props up India and seeks to roll back Pakistan. Pakistan has also repeatedly protested terrorism in Pakistan by AFG-based groups, including TTP, JuA, ISKP.

- In my own assessment, it will take a lot more than carrots and sticks for US to get Pakistan to cooperate with Haqqanis, etc. It requires a comprehensive US-Pakistan dialogue and new common ground in Afghanistan. US will also need to put some brakes on India in AFG. #NSS

- Pakistan's NSA Janjua recently warned of a possible nuclear war in South Asia. We should take his words more seriously than we currently are. There's also need to urgently address rise of ISKP, which seeks to create a nuclear confrontation in South Asia, as per one of its docs.

- We also shouldn't misread how Pakistan views the current situation in Afghanistan. Pakistan may be compelled to take drastic steps (invasion of Afghanistan with consent of Russia, China, etc) if its security concerns are ignored for long + if terrorism from AFG intensifies.