Thread by @steffanwatkins

I've been trying to figure out what the "Intelligence-Gathering Vessel" was that the @RoyalNavy (infuriatingly) wouldn't name or post pictures of that crossed the English Channel on Christmas Eve. Because of the timing, I strongly suspected it was the Viktor Leonov AGI. #SpyShip

I can now say, with a high degree of confidence, a Russian Navy AGI stopped in Trinidad & Tabago 2018-01-11 to restock, and they have likely left by now. I suspect, but cannot yet confirm, that AGI is the Viktor Leonov|Виктор Леонов, the Vishnya-class intelligence ship. #SpyShip

You may remember the collective freak-out when there was a Russian Navy intelligence gathering vessel off the US East Coast last Feb-Mar. That info was Secret(or higher)-classified Navy intelligence, leaked by the Pentagon, but there was no investigation or pursuit of the leaker.

The @RoyalNavy deliberately withheld the name and pictures of the Russian Navy intelligence vessel. Why? Did the @USNavy request they not tell the world that the Russian Spy Ship was coming over for the yearly visit?
Would that have ruined the American narrative and "surprise"?

🇷🇺 #Russia|n Navy Vishnya-class intelligence ship Viktor Leonov|Виктор Леонов left the #PortOfSpain (T&T 🇹🇹) 2018-01-15 after spending ~5 days in port. Restocked after crossing the Atlantic. Transited the English Channel at XMas. #AGI #ВМФ #SpyShip #USNavy (2014-02-27 Pic)

🇷🇺 #Russia|n Navy AGI #SpyShip Viktor Leonov|Виктор Леонов confirmed operating in the Caribbean by Pentagon officials. The same ship that crossed the English Channel on Christmas Eve that the @RoyalNavy wouldn't disclose the identity of. Why not? #ВМФ

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by @FreeBeacon view original on Twitter

It's cute that @CNN finally caught up, I've only been tweeting about it since December. #NotBreakingNews

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by @briantoddcnn view original on Twitter

You'll notice bland future follow ups, sticking to Pentagon talking points, and not asking any risky questions; not journalism. #SpyShip

CNN stated one new thing; Viktor Leonov is near the Dominican Republic, indicating they're headed to the US first. #SpyShip

Looks like @FoxNews caught up too - good job guys.
Zero additional information.
foxnews.com/us/2018/01/18/… #SpyShip

Newsweek has got in on the action; welcome aboard matey!
They add that the US Military is super-coy about following the vessels's movements; which is appropriate, as their movements are Secret or above Naval intelligence.

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by @jchaltiwanger view original on Twitter

Here we have RT w/ embeded CNN video;
russian.rt.com/inotv/2018-01-…

Did they have a fire sale on Russian analysts? Could you get someone who knows what they're talking about next time CNN? Please? For the love of pete... that's complete BS.

The question is, where is Viktor Leonov now? Well, the US Navy could tell you minute to minute, but they feel no compulsion to, so we have to rely on leaks, and observations. Last year, while VL was first "spotted" (leaked) when they were off DE, I believe they were in transit

...to #NSBNewLondon. Their position was 30NM from the base, which would be at the edge of the 12NM limit (due to the area's geography), which was s the edge of international waters. The constant misquote in the media is they were "30 miles" from shore. No. They were much closer.

The distance from shore, beyond the 12NM territorial limit, is interesting as a factoid, but irrelevant regarding it having a more or less aggressive posture, as seems to be conveyed in the media. They have always come right up to the "fence" and peered over. NBD. We do it too!

As @Strat2Intel shows, that red circle is where they had been in 2017, and a pretty good guess regarding where they MAY be going, if they're taking a look at, or listen to, the same targets of interest as last year.

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В Пентагоне прокомментировали данные о "российском корабле-разведчике" [2018.01.19]
ria.ru/world/20180119…

(here's the google translate link you were looking for)
translate.google.com/translate?hl=e…

Lucas @ Fox with the scoop
"heading north roughly 100 miles off coast of Myrtle Beach after cruising by Charleston, SC."

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by @LucasFoxNews view original on Twitter

CNN in 2nd Place for today's Viktor Leonov news; Pentagon officials prefer leaking to Fox first? Huh.

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by @Chris__Boyette view original on Twitter

Viktor Leonov is being tailed by the #USSCole?
Well, that's interesting.

🇺🇸 #USNavy Arleigh Burke-class destroyer USS Cole (MMSI:366988000) is reportedly tracking the Russian Navy AGI Viktor Leonov off the East Coast, however, being operational, she has her AIS transponder off. Party pooper. :P #USSCole #DDG67 marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details…

I should probably mention there is no proof that the #USSCole is being used to shadow the Viktor Leonov; no AIS or radio transmissions, yet.
We had proof of #DDG99 following Viktor Leonov last year.
#spyship

🇺🇸 #USNavy Arleigh Burke-class destroyer USS Laboon (MMSI:366990000) just left Norfolk at a decent speed. #USSLaboon #DDG58 marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details…

Военные США обнаружили у своего восточного побережья корабль-разведчик РФ (2018-01-23)
interfax.ru/world/596604

Today's leak to @CNN said the ship was "100 miles" "SE" of "Wilmington, North Carolina", which is just like the usual Navy riddles we get from them. It is likely actually 100 nautical miles, therefore 185km to the metric world.

They did not say it was stationary or loitering, so it's likely still on the move, headed either towards Norfolk, or New London. Remember, they have over a month to snoop before they restock food in Cuba, lots of time to gather intelligence.

Amateur radio Viktor Leonov sleuths; the AGI and her shadow hail each other regularly & professionally. You can catch them hailing on Marine VHF Ch 16, announcing which channel they change to in order to continue to conversation. #USSCole #DDG67 #SpyShip
broadcastify.com/listen/coid/1/…

Last year, end of March, #DDG99 being hailed by Viktor Leonov
soundcloud.com/steffanwatkins…

Last year, end of March, #DDG99 hailing Viktor Leonov
soundcloud.com/steffanwatkins…

I'm not saying the American military would ever tell a lie, but, I'd be more confident if I heard the USS Cole and Viktor Leonov exchange pleasantries over on Marine VHF Ch 16.

"Defense Officials: Pentagon Monitoring Russian Intelligence Gathering Ship"
newsmax.com/newsfront/pent…
(2018-01-18)

"Tàu do thám Nga ‘lảng vảng’ gần vùng biển Mỹ"
motthegioi.vn/the-gioi-c-79/…
(2018-01-21)

Bảo Vĩnh is doing his homework :) Well done, and thank you!

"Виктор Леонов" у берегов США: корабль позора или супер-разведчик? infopolk.ru/1/O/interpreta…
(2018-01-23)

I have a medium to high degree of confidence that the Russian Navy AGI Viktor Leonov is currently sitting outside Norfolk, just outside US territorial waters, ~24NM+ from Virginia Beach.
Don't forget to wave!
h/t to @MIL_Radar and @AircraftSpots who have their eyes on the sky!

My biggest wonder is, will the Pentagon leak the location? Followed closely by, will news media go on the conjecture of people who are doing analyst work relying on OSINT and not official sources?
STAY TUNED!

🇺🇸 #USNavy #Boeing P-8A Poseidon has been circling, at low altitude, just outside American territorial waters, where the 🇷🇺 #Russia|n #Navy AGI Viktor Leonov was hanging out last year, and the P-8 hasn't been broadcasting its location using its ADS-B transponder. 🙄#spyship

There are three #USNavy P-8A aircraft making interesting patterns on the US East Coast, but only one in the direction I expected Viktor Leonov to be going, & that same one isn't transmitting their coordinates, requiring triangulation to approximate their location. #spyship

12 month late finger wag to @rwindrem, @warkin, and @ckubeNBC for letting the @uscoastguard down by giving a voice to a hapless git who knows less than nothing about Russian Navy capabilities, and makes the Coast Guard look like a bunch of rubes (in 2017)
nbcnews.com/news/us-news/i…

The Viktor Leonov collects acoustic, electronic, electromagnetic, radio, etc. emissions.
It is absurd to suggest it's presence is a sign of "weakness".
The USAF & NATO perform the same missions near Russia for the same reason; physics. Not all INT can be collected from space.

(for more about that, see the article I posted before)
politonline.ru/interpretation…

I wonder if anyone told @elonmusk that a Russian Navy AGI will be watching and collecting as much information, about his January 30 launch, as possible. #SpaceX #SpyShip

🇫🇷 French Cable Layer Ile De Sein (MMSI:226235000) looks like she's repairing cable, 35NM offshore from Norfolk VA. Seriously? Today? #Alcatel #SpyShip

Remember those secret cables the Yanks and Brits were saying the Ruskies were after? That cable layer is working on a phantom cable, one that's not listed on the nautical charts I'm looking at, East of 36.776619,-75.2162933
So, an unlisted undersea cable coming from Virginia? Yup

Thank you @JoshuaNevett! I hope we get confirmation from the #USNavy

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by @Daily_Star view original on Twitter

I'd rather it be confirmed by a named source, but I'll take it!

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by @virginianpilot view original on Twitter

This may be the first time @dailystaruk has been the first to report a Russian Navy AGI "#SpyShip" location near the coast of the United States, before all other media outlets. Yes, actually "Breaking NEWS"!
pilotonline.com/news/military/…

We all know if Fox and Friends says it's true, it's a fact! :D \o/ #SpyShip

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🇺🇸 #USNavy Arleigh Burke-class destroyer USS Cole (MMSI:366988000) is reportedly tracking the Russian Navy AGI Viktor Leonov off the East Coast, but its transponder last beaconed Jan 20.
C'mon Cmdr Von St Paul, turn on #AIS and make this a lot easier.
#USSCole #DDG67

How is it that both @ABC and @NBCNews affiliates are days behind in their information?

~30NM from the coast of Virginia people. Get with the program. #SpyShip

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by @WTAE view original on Twitter

It looks like NBC and ABC are syndicating the CNN story from Jan 22nd that @ZcohenCNN & @rabrowne75 wrote.
FYI guys, it's heading North, and you missed the scoop yesterday of it being ~30mi from the VA shore near Norfolk. Sorry.

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I know I posted it before, but @BrockVergakis really did an extraordinary job, covering the Viktor Leonov being off the coast from Norfolk, on Jan 24th. (also reminded me of my mistake, they weren't there in 2013 as I'd previously tweeted)

pilotonline.com/news/military/…

Good to see further coverage from what we were seeing earlier in the week, but we haven't heard where Viktor Leonov is in the past two days. 12Nm from #NSBNewLondon yet?

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🇺🇸 #USNavy #Boeing P-8A Poseidon made a really low pass after turning off their transponder, at the entrance to #NSBNewLlondon, where the 🇷🇺 #Russia|n #Navy AGI Viktor Leonov would be, if they were monitoring #NSBNewLondon, just outside American territorial waters. #spyship

H/T and a big thanks to @MIL_Radar for keeping me up to date!

Correction: They didn't turn OFF their transponder, if I understand correctly, they ceased broadcasting their location as part of the ADS-B message using he transponder. MLAT is used to triangulate to get those screenshots of where they were.

Are you suggesting that Russian Navy "Spy Ship" is even further North than Norfolk now?

Yes, with extremely little proof, I'm making a proper Gypsy-Fortune-teller-crystal-ball-quality assessment that Viktor Leonov is outside New London. #spyship

Anyone notice that the #USNavy hasn't officially said a peep about Viktor Leonov's location since they planted the story it was 100 miles off North Carolina at the beginning of this week? Maybe they hope you think it's staying in one spot and not moving, you know, like a ship.

I'm going to revise my crystal ball work to guess they're sitting outside Naval Station Newport. If the #USNavy leaks where it is, it'll be fun to see how far off I am. Consider the height of the last P-8A flight; it was still descending when it was close to New London. ;)

Interesting; I'm quite sure the local business in Port of Spain were happy for the business.

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Reminder that the Pentagon last leaked the location of the Viktor Leonov on Monday the 22nd of January, and has not provided an update since.

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by @lucasfoxnews view original on Twitter

By now it could be anywhere up the Eastern seaboard.

Caught my eye...

"International waters is defined as being great than 12 miles off the coast, according to the official."

You mean that in the same way that Pi is 3.14-something-something, according to a mathematician?

It's a weird way to state a fact.

wate.com/news/national-…

How about,
~"International waters, a term defined by the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), lie beyond 12 nautical miles from shore."

...because I don't give a damn what the official said it was, it's a black and white fact.

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🇺🇸 #USNavy P-8A Poseidon (167955/AE2230) spent a lot of time ~350km East of #AtlanticCity today, without transmitting its position by ADS-B.
There's a pretty good chance that's where The Russia|n Navy AGI Viktor Leonov "spy ship" is now.
H/T @MIL_Radar!
planefinder.net/aircraft/AE223…

Is there a bot army still pushing that the Russian Navy "Spy Ship" is 100 miles from the Carolinas, or are people reading 7 day old news? It's at least near 30mi off Norfolk, probably 350Km East of Atlantic City, or closer to Groton

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Kudos to Marc who is the 1st person to post a picture of the Russian Navy AGI Viktor Leonov "spy ship"'s 2018 deployment. Nice find!
(right near the Hyatt, in Port of Spain, T&T, FYI) #SpyShip #ВМФ

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There is currently a COMPTUEX / multinational Navy exercise going on SE of Charleston South Carolina, and there are also US Navy P-8A Poseidons overhead. This poses a problem, since the Viktor Leonov usually attracts that sort of attention, but so could exercises. 1/

Considering the exercise is going on at the same time as the Russian Navy AGI Viktor Leonov "Spy Ship" is off the coast for ~2 months, if this wasn't one of the main reasons it left Russia mid-December to monitor the US, it would be a great target of opportunity to monitor. 2/

You may have noticed that it's been about two weeks since the @USNavy has officially said where the Viktor Leonov is, and you should probably be asking them why that is. Isn't it important to Americans where this [movie voice] Spy Ship of Doom [/movie voice] is hanging out? 3/3

If I was the Russian Navy Viktor Leonov "Spy Ship", I'd be in intl waters ~SE of Charleston SC right now, but that's hardly proof of where it is. However, it is exactly where they should be, based on the Navy exercises which are providing a wealth of SIGINT/ELINT opportunities.

What about the USS Cole that the @USNavy said was tailing the Russian Navy AGI Viktor Leonov "spy ship"?

Well, I'm glad you asked (and I looked!)

🇺🇸 #USNavy Arleigh Burke-class destroyer USS Cole (MMSI:366988000), last reported to be tasked with shadowing the Russian Navy AGI Viktor Leonov, just departed Norfolk, then turned its transponder off again (Booo! Hiss! Poor show!)
#USSCole #DDG67
marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details…

Remember @CNN's @rabrowne75 & @ZcohenCNN told the public what the Pentagon wanted them to on 2018-01-22 (spy ship spotted 100 mi off NC) but it's been a month since Viktor Leonov restocked, and there hasn't been 1 update by the Pentagon since. Why is that?
cnn.com/2018/01/22/pol…

During the 2017 Russian Navy AGI "Spy Ship" Viktor Leonov's Eastern Atlantic deployment, it was ~31 days between departing Kingston Jamaica 2018-02-04 and arriving in Havana Cuba to restock.
It is now day 35; if they haven't visited Havana, they will soon.

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Last year, the Russian Navy AGI Viktor Leonov (the "Spy Ship") was docked in the port of #Havana #Cuba from 2017-03-07 to 2017-03-13, after TASS publicly announced they'd have a 3 day stay.
(image is Google translated; mileage may vary)
tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/4… #SpyShip

In early 2017, Viktor Leonov had stopped in the port of Kingston (Jamaica) from 2017-02-01 to 2017-02-04 to restock.
You'd know this from the Russian Embassy posting it on their web page.

en.rejamaica.ru/News/1486067150

Viktor Leonov, like all ships, needs to replenish its stores. It does so every 30-45 days, which means you should expect it to show up in #Havana #Cuba any day now, if it isn't already there. #SpyShip

The last report of the location of the Viktor Leonov "Spy Ship" was from Sputnik, quoting an unnamed source, placing them 160 miles East of Atlantic City on 2018-01-31.

( Two days earlier I had speculated they were ~215 miles East of Atlantic City. 👍 )
sputniknews.com/military/20180…

Russian Navy AGI "spy ship" Viktor Leonov is not off the US East Coast anymore, but they're not in Cuba either. o.0 In fact, they might not stop in Cuba this year at all, or at least not for another month+, if they do at all...
Exclusive Breaking News coming soon. #VagueTweeting

🇷🇺 #Russia|n Navy Vishnya-class intelligence ship Viktor Leonov (the "Spy Ship") returned to Port of Spain (🇹🇹 Trinidad & Tobago) on 2018-02-22, will depart 2018-02-25; headed back to the 🇺🇸 US East Coast? 🤔
#BreakingNews #SpyShip #ВМФ #России

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Thank you very much Carla for the picture! :)

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2018-02-24 The Daily Star UK:
Russian "Spy Ship" Viktor Leonov spotted in Trinidad and Tobago, again!
dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-ne…

#Russia|n Navy AGI "Spy Ship" Viktor Leonov continues to make headlines...

2018-02-25 Trinidad & Tobago Guardian:
guardian.co.tt/news/2018-02-2…

I'd like to bring your attention to the fact the US Navy did not announce the departure of the Russian Navy AGI from the US EEZ when it departed for Trinidad last week.
They didn't announce it last year either, leaving some people to think the Spy Ship stayed all year. It didn't.

Two local papers in Trinidad have reported on the Viktor Leonov "Spy Ship" being in Port of Spain, with pictures.
No US MSM has even mentioned it yet.
The ship arrived last week, and the story broke Saturday.
Can't the US press pick this story up without the Pentagon's approval?

Unfortunately @GuardianTT didn't drive home the point that The Viktor Leonov is in port to restock with food; that is their primary reason for being there. How do I know that? Because they need to eat, and they don't have sufficient stores to be at sea for months.

But why this year did the Russian Navy send Viktor Leonov to T&T (TWICE!) whereas last year they went to Jamaica and Cuba?

I don't know, but the businesses in Port of Spain should be happy with the money they dropped off, maybe they'll be back again!

🇺🇸 #USNavy Northrop Grumman MQ-4C Triton (Reg 168457|ICAO:AE5C72) has been aloft for ~7hrs, and is now off the coast of North Carolina at 50,000ft.
Russian Navy Viktor Leonov hasn't been seen leaving Feb 25 🤔
h/t @LepontDahu @GDarkconrad

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#ADSB #SpyShip

I'm going out on a limb and speculating that Viktor Leonov is back off the coast of Florida, but without visual confirmation from a local, in a boat, out at sea, off Daytona Beach past 12NM, I can't be certain.
The pattern, altitude, and heuristics look VERY similar to last year.

The middle of the orbit would put them at 24NM from shore. While inside 12NM is American waters, between 12NM and 24NM is the Contiguous Zone, which the US does have some additional rights in. Viktor Leonov could be just on the outside of 24NM, in the center of the orbit
#CONZNE

🇺🇸 #USNavy P-8A Poseidon (Reg.168859|ICAO:AE57BF) Callsign 00000000 may have replaced 168848|AE57B4. It seems like they are circling something that has moved Northwest from its earlier position this morning.
Jacksonville is a favourite hang out of Viktor Leonov's.
Just sayin'.

🇺🇸 #USNavy P-8A Poseidon (Reg.168860|ICAO:AE57C0) Callsign <blank>, I'm confident, is circling the Russian Navy AGI Viktor Leonov, based on alt, speed, progression up the coast at a slow rate of speed, history, and my gut. ;)
#Florida #Jacksonville #SpyShip

Someone got shy and doesn't want to transmit their altitude anymore...

You're not on the ground, jacka$s.

🇺🇸 #USNavy P-8A Poseidon (Reg.168860|ICAO:AE57C0) Callsign <blank> is most likely orbiting the Russian Navy intelligence-gathering vessel Viktor Leonov, which is likely currently loitering 24NM East of Naval Submarine Base Kings Bay, as it does on it's ~yearly visits. #SpyShip

So, how many amateur radio enthusiasts are listening to Marine VHF 16 around Jacksonville FL today? If Viktor Leonov is off the coast, they will be hailing their shadow, or being hailed by their shadow, over Ch 16, then switch to another channel.

Stream:
broadcastify.com/listen/feed/18…

The Russian Navy abides by international maritime conventions, communicating over the public airwaves, and standard internationally recognized hailing frequencies. That the American government doesn't tell us where the ship is located is an annoyance, but not insurmountable. #ВМФ

Unfortunately, if the ship has ventured farther North, up the East coast, they'll be out of Marine VHF range from Jacksonville, and we won't hear jack-sh*t, unless they are in range of Horry and Georgetown Counties Marine's VHF 16 feed, in South Carolina.
broadcastify.com/listen/feed/74…

Russian Navy Viktor Leonov last year:
‘USS Farragut (DDG 99)hailing Viktor Leonov (2017-03-24 ~0800)’ soundcloud.com/steffanwatkins…

Russian Navy Viktor Leonov last year:
'Viktor Leonov hailing USS Farragut (DDG 99)(2017-03-25 ~1000)'
soundcloud.com/steffanwatkins…

🇺🇸 #USNavy P-8A Poseidon (Reg.168428|ICAO:AE4EB2) Callsign 00000000 is most likely orbiting the Russian Navy intelligence-gathering vessel Viktor Leonov, which is likely loitering in international waters, East of Naval Submarine Base Kings Bay ( as it does almost every year. )

Eventually you'll be able to make a flip-book of these...

Twin P-8As flying off Jacksonville FL in Viktor Leonov's usual sweet spot. The weather doesn't look too bad either.

No information on who's been tasked to shadow the ship this time. #USSCole again? They were last seen docked in Norfolk on the 5th.

🇺🇸 #USNavy P-8A Poseidon (Reg.168440|ICAO:AE4EBE) Callsign 00000000 is circling an area much further away from shore than yesterday.

🇺🇸 #USNavy P-8A Poseidon back out there in the same area.

If they're following the Russian Navy AGI Viktor Leonov, Viktor isn't doing SIGINT on any shore-based assets from way out there, that's for sure.

Hey, about that General Dynamics #DRAPES contract...

🇺🇸 #USNavy P-8A Poseidon off Cape Canaveral, another favourite haunt of Viktor Leonov; or totally unrelated. Can't really tell, since the US Navy hasn't said a peep about their East Coast deployment in a month.

2018-03-08: Bill Gertz of the Washington Free Beacon publishes confirmation from the #USNavy that the Russian Navy AGI Viktor Leonov|Виктор Леонов is conducting operations off the US East Coast, again. #ВМФ #России

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by @BillGertz view original on Twitter

Did anyone notice the @USNavy didn't say:

1. How long the the Russians will be there? (2mo. total, so end of March)
2. That Viktor Leonov restocked & returned?
3. Which USN ship is shadowing it?
4. Why the USN didn't announce it earlier?
5. Will the USN announce when they leave?

2018-03-09: Sputnik quoted the aforementioned Washington Free Beacon article

sputniknews.com/military/20180…

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by @SputnikInt view original on Twitter

Winner! Gagnant! #SpyShip

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by @AircraftSpots view original on Twitter

🇺🇸 #USNavy Boeing P-8A Poseidon (Reg.169336|ICAO:AE5C62) Callsign 00000000 may be orbiting Russian Navy "Spy Ship" Viktor Leonov off Port Canaveral, where US submarines take on munitions.

(Unrelated) Video from last year showing a #USNavy #SSN coming into Port Canaveral.

🇺🇸 #USNavy Boeing P-8A Poseidon (Reg.169336|ICAO:AE5C62) Callsign 00000000 may be orbiting Viktor Leonov off Port Canaveral, and has now been doing so for over 4.5hrs.

Russian Navy "Spy Ship" Viktor Leonov arrived in Havana Cuba this morning, actually, is arriving, right now. This signals the end of their East Coast operation phase, but they have another couple months of operations before getting home.

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by @cnn_oppmann view original on Twitter

I'm unsure if they'll head to the Mediterranean next, as they did last year, with a stop in Cyprus, or if they'll head to Nicaragua, as they've done before. We'll see!

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The Daily Star Uk is on the case:
dailystar.co.uk/news/world-new…