Ferdinando Giugliano Profile picture
Mar 5, 2018 11 tweets 4 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Good morning all from Rome - as you can see I have opted for the large moka pot this morning. We will all need it! Here are a few thoughts on #Italianelections2018 after an extraordinary night.
1. There are two ways to look at this #ItalianElection2018. One is the electoral outcome: a badly hung parliament. The other is the political message: an anti-establishment triumph.
2. Let's start with the electoral arithmetics. It's ugly. None of the three blocs (Centre-right, Centre-left, 5 Star Movement) will be able to secure a majority. We will need some form of grand coalition, which, in a way is what we always expected.
There are three options:
1) Centre-right with some support from the centre-left
2) 5 Star Movement with some support from the centre-left
3) 5 Star Movement and the League

At the moment they all look pretty unlikely, but we'll see. #ItalyElection2018
4. These calculations should not distract us from the main political message of #ItalyElection2018 - this was an anti-establishment triumph, of the same league as the #Brexit or the #Trump upsets, in the eurozone's 3rd largest country.
5. More than half of the voters have backed the Five Star Movement and the League. These parties have been very cautious (to say the least) on the euro, critical of Italy's migration policy, and open to "no vax" ideas.
6. The EU now has a massive issue at its Southern border. Whatever the government, there will be calls for higher spending/lower taxes, which will be impossible to reconcile with the euro zone fiscal rules. What will Germany do?
7. This new political reality will not go away by calling a new election or by some coalition wizardry.The 5 Star Movement has been excluded from power for years, but has kept growing.The League is in a dominant position in the centre-right. Like it or not, this is the new Italy.
8. The League and the 5 Star Movement will be rightly celebrating today. But the hard part starts now. They have triumphed on a fanciful platform of unrealistic promises (flat tax, universal basic income). If they go into government, they are bound to disappoint.
9. What happens when reality starts to bite? Will anti-establishment parties turn against the EU, or will they renege on their promises because leaving the euro is too dangerous? It's far too early to tell, but I guess we are about to find out. #Italianelections2018
10. My thoughts on #ItalyElection2018 are now in this @BV column: A period of great uncertainty lies ahead, for both Italy and the rest of the EU. bloomberg.com/view/articles/…

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh

Keep Current with Ferdinando Giugliano

Ferdinando Giugliano Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!


Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @FerdiGiugliano

May 28, 2018
1 - There is a lot of confusion over why Italy’s President #Mattarella chose to veto Paolo Savona as finance minister, leading to the collapse of a possible 5 Star-League government. Here’s a short thread explaining what he said last night. #Italy
2 - The main problem was Savona’s explicit support for a ‘Plan B’ to leave the euro - which he did not withdraw before receiving the nomination. This plan had to be secretive, according to a set of slides he co-authored in 2015.
3 - If you are an investor in Italian bonds and you think the finance minister may have a secret plan to leave the euro, what you do? You sell your government bonds, as you fear you will be paid back in a less valuable currency (Lira). This causes a self-fulfilling crisis.
Read 9 tweets
May 27, 2018
Mattarella has just spoken. He confirmed the problem was over the appointment of the finance minister. He said he was open to a ‘political appointee’, not to someone who would sleepwalk Italy out of the euro. He concludes that arguing for ‘Ital-exit’ should be done openly. #Italy
+++ The 5 Star Movement is now reportedly considering an impeachment of Italy’s President Sergio Mattarella.
Why the appointment of Italy’s finance minister is so important. My @bopinion take from this week. google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bloo…
Read 11 tweets
May 15, 2018
+++ A copy of the draft 5 Star/League agreement (dated yesterday) has been leaked to @HuffPostItalia - I am going to tweet the most relevant sections. Full link below. huffingtonpost.it/2018/05/15/un-…
1) Five Star and the League expect the @ecb to forgive 250 billion euros in Italian bonds bought via quantitative easing, in order to bring down Italy's debt
2) The two parties want to re-open European Treaties and to "radically reform" the stability and growth pact. The coalition would also want to reconsider Italy's contribution to the EU budget.
Read 13 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!


0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy


3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!