2)”Since votes are counted unobservably in the pitch-dark of cyberspace& our voting equipment& programming are essentially off-limits to inspection, election forensics comes down..to indirect measures of patterns& anomalies, from which red flags may emerge to suggest “problems”.
3)”Unlike previous eras, exit polls — or at least those in competitive elections bearing national significance — in the era of computerized voting have been so habitually “off” in the same direction (to the “left” of the vote counts) that...”
4)”..many, having first presumed the accuracy of the vote counts, have come to dismiss the polls as faulty, the pollsters as biased or incompetent. This jaundiced view prevails despite the existence of studies confirming the demographic validity of exit poll samples.”
5)”On the eve of the election, Nate Silver’s traditionally reliable aggregating algorithm, reflecting up-to-the-minute shifts and trends, gave Clinton a 72 percent and Trump a 28 percent likelihood of winning the presidency. “ mintpressnews.com/donald-trump-w…
6)”Trump’s likelihood of pulling out victories in all of these states was on the order of one in 600....Expectations were such that, when a Trump victory became apparent, the words “Shocking” and “Upset” and “Unexpected” were attached to it in headlines across America.”
7)”Election integrity advocates approach every election with concerns born of the long history of red-flag forensics and suspect results in the era of computerized vote counting.”
8)”Beginning with the..proliferation of computerized voting and counting technology, competitive elections of national significance have displayed recurrent symptoms of what has been dubbed the “red shift” — vote counts to the right of exit polls, tracking polls, hand counts...”
9)”In keeping w/the long-standing refusal to acknowledge the possibility of insider interference with the vote counting process — that is, by anyone with access to the programming and servicing of the equipment — not a word was written or spoken about this corollary concern..”
10)”..despite the far greater likelihood that it would present as a vector for manipulation...
Election forensics specialists (myself included) forego the entertainment value of Election Night in order to capture vital data before it disappears.” mintpressnews.com/donald-trump-w…
11)”The first public posting of exit poll results provides an alternate measure of the intent of the electorate,a baseline against which to attempt to check& verify (one hopes) the reported electoral results,which have been tallied unobservably by privately programmed computers.”
12)”In America,ostensibly because here in such an unimpeachable democracy no such check is needed,the exit poll results are “adjusted” to ultimate congruence w/the vote tallies,& this process begins from the moment the polls close& the exit poll is first posted..”
Jonathan Simon
13)”Any disparities between the unadjusted exit polls& the vote counts are regarded as exit poll errors(vote counts being unquestioned& unquestionable)that need to be fixed if the exit polls are to become accurate& useful for demographic& political analysis of the electorate.”
14)”Once the adjustment process begins, no record of the relatively pristine, unadjusted exit poll results is retained — unless those results are screen-captured, which is what forensics specialists do.” mintpressnews.com/donald-trump-w…
15)”The exit polls we screen-captured as each state’s polls closed and they were posted, projected a solid Clinton win, a better than 3 million vote popular vote margin and over 300 Electoral College votes (270 being needed for a majority).” mintpressnews.com/donald-trump-w…
16)”Experience,however,counseled caution: In the past,red shift changes diminished such Democratic exit poll margins& even reversed apparent victories.We witnessed..a 4 percent John Kerry lead over George Bush in Ohio flip at midnight in 2004,& w/it the presidential election.”
17)”And now we began to see signs of such reversals, not in a single state as in 2004, but in a swath of states, the ones that everyone understood would be decisive in electing our next president.”
Jonathan Simon #unhackthevote@mikefarb1
18)”Red shift on steroids
By early morning I had begun circulating tables documenting the most egregious “red shift” exit poll to vote count disparities ever recorded in the computerized voting era.”
Jonathan Simon
19)”Ohio had shifted from an exit poll dead heat to an 8.1 percent Trump win; NC from a 2.1% Clinton win to a 3.6% Trump win; PA from 4.4% Clinton to 0.7% Trump; WI from 3.9% Clinton to 0.7% Trump; FL from 1.3% Clinton to 1.2% Trump;& MI from a dead heat to 0.3% Trump.”
J. Simon
20)”Not only were the red shifts in OH, NC, PA, WI, and even compromised FL well beyond the margin of error for the exit polls, in the states of North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Florida, those shifts clearly resulted in reversals of outcome..” mintpressnews.com/donald-trump-w…
21)”If the exit polls rather than the vote counts were accurately capturing voter intent, the Electoral College majority would have gone to Clinton and it would not have been close.” mintpressnews.com/donald-trump-w…
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THREAD
Trump Knows Why Putin Wants Him To Declassify Our Intel Secrets About Sources And Methods.
Nunes gives cover to Trump by saying @GOP needs to see FBI efforts to “Frame” Trump and Russia.
But, Putin is FSB. He wants our Intel Agencies crippled.
2) Putin murders Western Intelligence Agents and Sources.
If Trump declassifies Sources, our overseas human assets will disappear or die.
“Russia has been accused of...harassment, assassinations and the novichok poisonings in the UK.” google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.…
3) Kremlin Sources Go Quiet, Leaving C.I.A. in the Dark About Putin’s Plans for Midterms
“..the outing of an F.B.I. informant under scrutiny by the House intel committee — encouraged by Trump — has had a chilling effect on intelligence collection.” google.com/amp/s/www.nyti…
THREAD
Trump Dismantles FBI CounterIntelligence To The Benefit Of Vladimir Putin And FSB
“Trump has relentlessly attacked these FBI and Justice Department officials as dishonest “Democrats” engaged in a partisan “witch hunt” led by the special counsel.” theatlantic.com/amp/article/56…
2) “Trump’s latest obsession is with Bruce Ohr, a career Justice Department official who spent years investigating Russian organized crime and corruption—an expertise he shared with another Trump target named Christopher Steele...”
3)”Trump’s fixation with seeing Ohr ousted from the Justice Department could be perceived..as an attack on someone with deep knowledge of the shady characters..including Semion Mogilevich, the Russian mob boss, and Oleg Deripaska, a Russian aluminum magnate close to Putin..”
Socialism—
A name reserved for liberals and progressives by Republicans meant to be disparagingly disgusting because it includes welfare for poor people. Ignorantly, it gets confused with communism.
2) DemocraticSocialism—
A term mistakenly associated with Scandanavian countries because they have a form of welfare state within a complex economy. Bernie Sanders adopts this label to avoid being called socialist.
3) Nordic capitalism/social democracy—
A comprehensive welfare state& collective bargaining at nat’l level w/high percentage of workforce unionized,while being based on economic foundations of free market capitalism,w/higher standard of living than USA& people generally happier.
#IDedicateThisWeekTo Edgar Mowrer, Pulitzer Prize winning international and war correspondent, who warned the world about Hitler& Mussolini, at risk to himself.
He was a beacon of truth, when the free press was under attack.
As did Hitler, Trump would have called him Fake News.
"Like other newsmen, I was crazy to see all I could... we rented bicycles and pedaled eastward... eager to see what we could of the recent battlefields.... When we finally arrived, I realized with delight that we were at the headquarters of the French Fifth Army.”
Edgar Mowrer
“To the north we heard the faint roar of guns..Before we knew it,we were under arrest as spies. In answer to my insistence that we were free-born Americans w/papers,...the captain cursed me roundly. Next a major led us to courtyard& locked us up in separate sheds."
Edgar Mowrer
THREAD
For Putin, Trump has betrayed America and executed a strategy to destroy The Alliance Of Western Liberal Democracies that have kept the peace for 70 years.
The Republican Party is co-opted due to corruption.
Attacks on our DOJ and @FBI serve Putin’s strategy to bury us.q
Donald Trump’s Betrayal of American and European Diplomacy
His withdrawal from the Iran deal is the biggest breach in transatlantic trust since the Iraq invasion. theamericanconservative.com/articles/donal…
“To the 28 member states of the European Union,..Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear agreement (..JCPOA) was not just a diplomatic catastrophe of the highest order—it was a betrayal of everything America and Europe have worked towards for the past 15 years.