MikeFarb Profile picture
Mar 22, 2018 19 tweets 5 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter

Cambridge Analytica. The Video.

The Questions it raises.

The Rabbit Hole.

Here is a very interesting video of a presentation made in 2017 by Molly Schweickert, Cambridge Analytica's Global Head of Digital.
In the video she describes the details of Cambridge Analytica's triumphant Trump campaign marketing venture.
Someone asks her: When were you sure that your campaign was success and he would win the campaign? Let's see what she says.

Ok, stop right there. Where was Cambridge Analytica getting data that showed a high probability that Trump would be victorious? No other organization was reporting anything of the sort.
Lets take a look at what we new about Early Voting at the time it was being reported.
Here is a report from Heavy, detailing the early results by state, and also describing the difficulties in using early voting data, which only shows the party affiliations of those who voted early, and in some states not even that.
On election day, Heavy estmated that Clinton was 9 percentage points ahead!

Here is a similar report from Nate Silver's team at 538.

From Fortune Magazine.

Early Voting points to an advantage for Clinton in Battleground States as well as signs of strength in traditional Republican Territories!!

It could leave Donald Trump with virtually no path to the 270 Electoral votes needed to win!!
From Politico

Democrats appear to be outpacing their 2012 Early Vote performance in several key swing states, giving Clinton a head start on Trump in some of the most important presidential battlegrounds.
From Reuters

With 11 days to go before the US Election Clinton leads Trump by 15% among early voters.

As of Tuesday Clinton’s odds of receiving the 270 Electoral Votes were greater than 95%!!

Clinton’sEarly Vote lead is similar to the lead Obama had over Romney in 2012.
From Slate

In early Vote Clinton leads in Five of the Six Key States including Florida. The only State Trump is ahead in is Pennsylvania although early votes in that state are scarce.

Side Note. Florida cast almost 3.7 million early votes.
How could they have been so sure that she would have “bet on it” knowing now that the Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin were won by a total of 77,000 votes? As fine grained as their data was there is no way. No way!
Then another question, and another answer. Cambridge Analytica worked with a company that was aggregating absentee voter data from counties and states? Really? What company is this? Where are THEY getting this data?
And what about this? At this point in the video she says something extremely interesting.

Results coming in from the Secretaries of States from Absentee Ballots!! Results!!

WTF!! Really? In real time, on election day, Cambridge Analytica was getting voting data from secretaries of state? How is this possible? What information were they getting?
No matter how good their data was they still didn’t know how many people would vote and how many of them would vote.

There is only one way to know you are going to win an election.

You need to be able to adjust the vote.
What else was their data used for?

No one would have had better data as to where they needed votes and about how many votes they needed.

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More from @mikefarb1

Aug 21, 2018

So Russia has reportedly moved on from Hacking our Election Infrastructure. Moving on to other things. Don’t believe it. They are everywhere in our Election System. They know the importance of the Midterms.

And Now This!

Parts of an operation linked to Russian military intelligence targeting the US Senate and conservative think tanks were thwarted last week. The domains were associated with the Russian government and known as Strontium, or alternatively Fancy Bear or APT28
"Hackers could have used the domains to send emails to Senate staffers or people working for the Hudson Institute or the International Republican Institute in an attempt to trick them into handing over information, like their passwords."
Read 5 tweets
Aug 19, 2018
Georgia to close 75% of Black Counties Precincts!! Precincts that were all open during the Primaries. They know they have a problem. Even with the Election machines that give suspect results they know they need more help.


If this stands we need to start a major effort to provide transportation in this county. We will need drivers, volunteers and people to help distribute notices and spread the word.
This is also what we should be doing in any heavily Gerrymandered area where there is a difficulty with people traveling the long distance to their polling places.
Read 4 tweets
Jul 18, 2018

More than 250 Trump Organization Subdomains are in Communication with Computers in Russia!!

The Trump Organization, like most large organizations, has a lot of domains registered to it. Let's take a look.
Many of these domains have subdomains - like reservations.trumphotels.com. This is a normal practice. But we found something HIGHLY unusual.
Read 19 tweets
Jul 17, 2018
Remote Access Software used by ES&S Voting. They finally tell the truth. At least some of it. Thank you to @KimZetter for pursuing her initial story from February. I am afraid we are missing the bigger point here.

States have given over their Election Systems to a myriad of Private Companies. The States in many cases have absolutely no idea what is happening with their Elections.
Ask yourself why did the States notified over a year after the 2016 Election not know that they were being targeted by Russia? How is that possible? What does that mean for the possibility of having a free and fair Election?
Read 13 tweets
Jul 15, 2018

Michigan, ES&S and the Voting Machines that couldn’t count!!

Why are States Buying and Using Machines that don’t pass testing?

It is infuriating!!

All along there have been problems with electronic voting. Again and again election officials and observers have spoken up, only to be ignored.
In 2008 an election official in Oakland County Michigan noticed something alarming.with ES&S optical scan machines. Here is the story.
Read 20 tweets
Jul 14, 2018
Maryland Voter Registration System runs on Russian Owned Software! The biggest problem here is that they never knew it. How is that possible? The States have no idea who is behind the companies they give the Elections over to.


We are going to be dropping a ton of research on exactly this. Why do States willfully do this. Would a state actually know if something went bad ? Let's talk more about Spearphishing.
Every company that touches a States Voting system introduces a hundred more employees that can get hacked. Companies rely on these contracts. They aren't going to disclose what happened. Just look at VR Systems.
Read 5 tweets

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