Jessie Opoien Profile picture
Apr 12, 2018 28 tweets 18 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
About to listen to @PollsAndVotes drop some numerical knowledge on Wisconsin’s 2018 elections. #wipolitics
On the left: @judgedallet #scowis victory earlier this month. On the right: @ScottWalker re-elect victory in 2014. Via @PollsAndVotes
.@PollsAndVotes says he talks a lot about party polarization, but points to this chart of WI Supreme Court race outcomes and sees “very substantial variation in outcome” in part based on incumbency
Big shoutout for @JMilesColeman, whose Wisconsin mapping work @PollsAndVotes is highlighting in #SCOWIS analysis tonight. On the left: 2018 Supreme Court. On the right: 2016 presidential.
"It will take a combination of strong candidates (for Dems) and the help of tailwinds from a national wave to put a district like this into play," says @PollsAndVotes of #WI01. Says national handicappers rushed to judgment to call it a toss-up.
.@PollsAndVotes talks more about why he believes that (re: ⬆️ previous tweet) here:… #WI01
This handy PowerPoint slide shows you the trajectory of @ScottWalker’s approval rating in Wisconsin over the years. That big gap is when he ran for president. Via @PollsAndVotes
Based on polling, @PollsAndVotes has this helpful takeaway for both @ScottWalker and @tammybaldwin races: It could go either way!
Now it gets real politicky, with GOP strategist Keith Gilkes and Den strategist Tanya Bjork forecasting the 2018 Wisconsin elections.
Dem strategist Tanya Bjork: @SpeakerRyan retiring doesn't mean Dems will win #WI01. It's still a Republican district. But increased turnout and excitement there could help @tammybaldwin and whoever the Dem #WIGov candidate is in November.
GOP strategist Keith Gilkes: @SpeakerRyan's retirement hurts Republicans nationally, but it's less demoralizing for Wisconsin Republicans, who always knew Ryan would bow out someday.
Will @SpeakerVos run in #WI01? Gilkes: "I can’t speak for the Speaker. … if he got in, he’d be a force to be reckoned with at the end of the day. Sometimes people love the job they’re in and they wouldn’t sacrifice it, especially to go to D.C."
Gilkes says @SenDaveCraig would have an advantage as an elected official running in #WI01 if he gets in, but notes UW Regent Bryan Steil has also expressed interest.
Bjork says a few days ago, she might not have said we'll see Congressman @IronStachein office, but with @SpeakerRyan out anything is possible. Nothing is predictable. #WI01
Gilkes on #WISEN race: "I think if Republicans don’t learn that lesson from 2012 about how @tammybaldwin succeeds in 2012 … then we’re doomed to repeat it. We need to make a concerted effort to make sure we don’t repeat history."
Dem strategist Bjork says @ScottWalker is making a "transformation" heading into re-election in 2018.
GOP strategist Gilkes: "It’s not a transformation, it’s a reinvestment in Wisconsin."
Dem strategist Bjork on beating @ScottWalker: Dem field is crowded, tough to focus. "I’m not saying this is a slam dunk for us, for sure. I do believe, though, if we aren’t able to do it this time, this is the closest we will have been able to come so far." #WIGov
GOP strategist Keith Gilkes says he thinks 2018 will bring about a new kind of voter. In 2012 we had Obama-Walker voters. In 2018 he expects @tammybaldwin-@ScottWalker voters. #WIGov #WISen
.@wispolitics1: "Let's talk about the Democratic governor field."
Dem strategist Tanya Bjork: "Oh god."
Bjork says nice things about Dem candidates.
Mayers: "Is there somebody who could screw it up for you?:
Bjork: "Yeah. That’s a hard yes."
#WIGov #wipolitics
Bjork: "I’m sure if anybody could figure out how to screw it up we (Dems) probably could." Says she's kidding. Mostly.

"I do think we will end up with a top-tier candidate who could give Walker and (Republicans) a run for your money," she concludes.

GOP's Gilkes: "@tammybaldwin, I have a lot of respect for her. She works hard … she picks out strategic, good policies (like delisting the gray wolf) … she knows how to be responsive to the voters." Says Baldwin and @ScottWalker are both talented politicians. #WIGov #WISen
Dem strategist Bjork says the perception of a "blue wave" has made it easier for Democrats to recruit top-tier candidates than before. Gilkes agrees, says Republicans have done a terrible job recruiting candidates and recent elections prove it.
.@mgraps asks Dem strategist Tanya Bjork if the Dem #WIGov field is closed.
Bjork: "I think the top tier is filled."
Someone notes she has not mentioned @Paulsoglin.
Bjork: "I don’t see a path for him. I don’t see how he sets himself apart. I don’t see how he has the money."
Note from Gilkes: Current events (national or statewide) can potentially have a bigger impact on election results than any strategic plan, oppo research, etc. November is a long way away. #WIGov #WISen #wipolitics
GOP strategist Gilkes says #SD01 could be tough for Republicans. But he's confident #SD17, represented by @SenMarklein, will stay red. "He works incredibly hard. He never stops doing doors. He raises an incredible amount of money,"
Dem strategist Bjork says it's entirely possible @ScottWalker will be re-elected by the state Senate and Assembly will flip to Dem control.
GOP strategist Gilkes says Walker could still pass a budget.
@wispolitics1: "It might be easier!"
The looks of pity shot my way when both the Dem and GOP strategists on the @wispolitics panel are like "lol newspapers? are those still a thing?"
On redistricting, both Gilkes and Bjork agree the Supreme Court's ruling on Wisconsin's maps will probably be narrow and not have much, if any, effect on 2018 elections.

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More from @jessieopie

Jun 28, 2018
Little bit of a line to get into this Foxconn thing
Steve Mnuchin just got dropped off. He got to cut the line.
The code name for the Foxconn project was Flying Eagle.
Read 42 tweets

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