Thread by @jessieopie

About to listen to @PollsAndVotes drop some numerical knowledge on Wisconsin’s 2018 elections. #wipolitics

On the left: @judgedallet #scowis victory earlier this month. On the right: @ScottWalker re-elect victory in 2014. Via @PollsAndVotes

.@PollsAndVotes says he talks a lot about party polarization, but points to this chart of WI Supreme Court race outcomes and sees “very substantial variation in outcome” in part based on incumbency

Big shoutout for @JMilesColeman, whose Wisconsin mapping work @PollsAndVotes is highlighting in #SCOWIS analysis tonight. On the left: 2018 Supreme Court. On the right: 2016 presidential.

"It will take a combination of strong candidates (for Dems) and the help of tailwinds from a national wave to put a district like this into play," says @PollsAndVotes of #WI01. Says national handicappers rushed to judgment to call it a toss-up.

.@PollsAndVotes talks more about why he believes that (re: ⬆️ previous tweet) here: host.madison.com/ct/news/local/… #WI01

This handy PowerPoint slide shows you the trajectory of @ScottWalker’s approval rating in Wisconsin over the years. That big gap is when he ran for president. Via @PollsAndVotes

Based on polling, @PollsAndVotes has this helpful takeaway for both @ScottWalker and @tammybaldwin races: It could go either way!

Now it gets real politicky, with GOP strategist Keith Gilkes and Den strategist Tanya Bjork forecasting the 2018 Wisconsin elections.

Dem strategist Tanya Bjork: @SpeakerRyan retiring doesn't mean Dems will win #WI01. It's still a Republican district. But increased turnout and excitement there could help @tammybaldwin and whoever the Dem #WIGov candidate is in November.

GOP strategist Keith Gilkes: @SpeakerRyan's retirement hurts Republicans nationally, but it's less demoralizing for Wisconsin Republicans, who always knew Ryan would bow out someday.

Will @SpeakerVos run in #WI01? Gilkes: "I can’t speak for the Speaker. … if he got in, he’d be a force to be reckoned with at the end of the day. Sometimes people love the job they’re in and they wouldn’t sacrifice it, especially to go to D.C."

Gilkes says @SenDaveCraig would have an advantage as an elected official running in #WI01 if he gets in, but notes UW Regent Bryan Steil has also expressed interest.

Bjork says a few days ago, she might not have said we'll see Congressman @IronStachein office, but with @SpeakerRyan out anything is possible. Nothing is predictable. #WI01

Gilkes on #WISEN race: "I think if Republicans don’t learn that lesson from 2012 about how @tammybaldwin succeeds in 2012 … then we’re doomed to repeat it. We need to make a concerted effort to make sure we don’t repeat history."

Dem strategist Bjork says @ScottWalker is making a "transformation" heading into re-election in 2018.
GOP strategist Gilkes: "It’s not a transformation, it’s a reinvestment in Wisconsin."

Dem strategist Bjork on beating @ScottWalker: Dem field is crowded, tough to focus. "I’m not saying this is a slam dunk for us, for sure. I do believe, though, if we aren’t able to do it this time, this is the closest we will have been able to come so far." #WIGov

GOP strategist Keith Gilkes says he thinks 2018 will bring about a new kind of voter. In 2012 we had Obama-Walker voters. In 2018 he expects @tammybaldwin-@ScottWalker voters. #WIGov #WISen

.@wispolitics1: "Let's talk about the Democratic governor field."
Dem strategist Tanya Bjork: "Oh god."
Bjork says nice things about Dem candidates.
Mayers: "Is there somebody who could screw it up for you?:
Bjork: "Yeah. That’s a hard yes."
#WIGov #wipolitics

Bjork: "I’m sure if anybody could figure out how to screw it up we (Dems) probably could." Says she's kidding. Mostly.

"I do think we will end up with a top-tier candidate who could give Walker and (Republicans) a run for your money," she concludes.

#WIGov

GOP's Gilkes: "@tammybaldwin, I have a lot of respect for her. She works hard … she picks out strategic, good policies (like delisting the gray wolf) … she knows how to be responsive to the voters." Says Baldwin and @ScottWalker are both talented politicians. #WIGov #WISen

Dem strategist Bjork says the perception of a "blue wave" has made it easier for Democrats to recruit top-tier candidates than before. Gilkes agrees, says Republicans have done a terrible job recruiting candidates and recent elections prove it.

.@mgraps asks Dem strategist Tanya Bjork if the Dem #WIGov field is closed.
Bjork: "I think the top tier is filled."
Someone notes she has not mentioned @Paulsoglin.
Bjork: "I don’t see a path for him. I don’t see how he sets himself apart. I don’t see how he has the money."

Note from Gilkes: Current events (national or statewide) can potentially have a bigger impact on election results than any strategic plan, oppo research, etc. November is a long way away. #WIGov #WISen #wipolitics

GOP strategist Gilkes says #SD01 could be tough for Republicans. But he's confident #SD17, represented by @SenMarklein, will stay red. "He works incredibly hard. He never stops doing doors. He raises an incredible amount of money,"

Dem strategist Bjork says it's entirely possible @ScottWalker will be re-elected by the state Senate and Assembly will flip to Dem control.
GOP strategist Gilkes says Walker could still pass a budget.
@wispolitics1: "It might be easier!"
#wipolitics

The looks of pity shot my way when both the Dem and GOP strategists on the @wispolitics panel are like "lol newspapers? are those still a thing?"

On redistricting, both Gilkes and Bjork agree the Supreme Court's ruling on Wisconsin's maps will probably be narrow and not have much, if any, effect on 2018 elections.