On why #SyriaStrikes are such fertile ground for Russia. 👇
The Kremlin is an adversary that thrives on confusion, uncertainty, doubt. Syria is a complex battlefield - peculiarly fertile for dispute and disinformation. Stumbled on it by chance, but pleased to have done so.
So: have the v small number of US/UK/FR airstrikes against the regime degraded and disrupted its WMD capability? Unclear. Maybe. Scattering assets prob deepest effect.
Are the strikes legal? Lots of ground for dispute there. Superb if you want to create a rolling blanket of 'fog of peace'.
Is the western public uncertain, easily swayed, living in the shadow of Iraq2, clearly susceptible within membership cliques to Left and Right social media? You betcha.
Can you drive a wedge into NATO, and further ratchet up the refugee crisis - and poisonous anti-immigration across the Atlantic allies? Easy.
So the case and the strategy align - Syria is a complex case in which doubt and confusion integral to the multi-sided civil war. If you want to cause confusion and division *rather than any specific end point*, it's perfect.
No doubt the Russian state simply saw all this as part of the traditional Great Game. States have interests, so play them out. They must be surprised to see the door simply swing open, given objective weakness of their position.
They're still winning the propaganda war, and given their successful deployment of kaleidoscopic/ ironic/ fictive/ deliberately owning narratives, will v likely continue to do so. Ends.
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