PUBLIC SERVICE KLAXON - Accuracy of Brexit economics forecasts edition
Brexit supporting economists come.........last
Brexit supporting economists come.........last
Just to be clear what the chart shows. The foreacsts I have used are the first full published ones after the #EURef.
The period chosen is the cumulative growth rate between Q2 2016 and Q1 2018 (ie all the relevant data)
The period chosen is the cumulative growth rate between Q2 2016 and Q1 2018 (ie all the relevant data)
I have assumed a smooth pattern of growth where quarterly predictions are unavailable.
@OBR_UK, @bankofengland, private sector economists too pessimistic so far.
Economsts for Brexit/@Econs4FreeTrade too significantly too optimistic
@OBR_UK closest but it's effort was later
@OBR_UK, @bankofengland, private sector economists too pessimistic so far.
Economsts for Brexit/@Econs4FreeTrade too significantly too optimistic
@OBR_UK closest but it's effort was later
For those wanting to know when @Econs4FreeTrade became worst - it was in Q4 2017 and the gap is widening
The upshot is that Brexit is having a damaging effect on the UK economy, but it came later than the majority in the profession expected.
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