Chris Giles Profile picture
Apr 27, 2018 5 tweets 3 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
PUBLIC SERVICE KLAXON - Accuracy of Brexit economics forecasts edition

Brexit supporting economists come.........last
Just to be clear what the chart shows. The foreacsts I have used are the first full published ones after the #EURef.

The period chosen is the cumulative growth rate between Q2 2016 and Q1 2018 (ie all the relevant data)
I have assumed a smooth pattern of growth where quarterly predictions are unavailable.

@OBR_UK, @bankofengland, private sector economists too pessimistic so far.

Economsts for Brexit/@Econs4FreeTrade too significantly too optimistic

@OBR_UK closest but it's effort was later
For those wanting to know when @Econs4FreeTrade became worst - it was in Q4 2017 and the gap is widening
The upshot is that Brexit is having a damaging effect on the UK economy, but it came later than the majority in the profession expected.

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More from @ChrisGiles_

Sep 21, 2018
TM doing aggression
Yikes - it's "any form of customs border" in the Irish Sea now
Now - doubling down on Chequers. Doesn't seem to understand that her proposals do undermine the single market
Read 9 tweets
Jul 25, 2018
Quick comment on nowcasting UK incomes:


I'm talking to you:

You can't agree on the numbers
The predictions are terrible
It confuses the truth

No data > rubbish data
@ONS @resfoundation @TheIFS It shouldn't be difficult to nowcast (properly described as Thencasting because we are talking 2017-18) incomes, right.

We have the latest survey and roughly know what happened to employment, earnings, taxes and benefits...

... but the results MUST be terribly sensitive
@ONS @resfoundation @TheIFS In 2 days we've had two of these, supposedly doing the same thing from @ONS and @resfoundation.

@ONS says disposable median income grew 1.2% in 2017-18
@resfoundation reckons it's not much more than zero.

That's a big difference
Read 5 tweets
Jul 17, 2018

Quite an extraordinary @LordsEconCom hearing into the RPI

John Pullinger, national statistician says its "not an if, but a when" the RPI gets reformed
@LordsEconCom He faced pretty hostile questioning.

Rightly so. The @ONS position of refusing to improve the RPI while having a statutory duty to do so was indefensible.

Lord Turnbull called it "highly embarrassing and very unfortunate"
@LordsEconCom @ONS Other Lords asked "what has got to change to make you do something?"

or "Are you just not going to bother?"

All appropriate questions. I've asked them too.
Read 8 tweets
Jun 29, 2018
The good, bad (mostly) and ugly of the Q1 national economic accounts

When the economy grows only 0.2%, there will not be much good, but

This was revised higher from 0.1%, due to a new methodology for construction. Essentially, this is taking usual slow revisions early

Business investment. Total investment has been unaffected by Brexit, but business investment growth effectively stopped since the Conservative victory in 2015 and uncertainty descended.

Compare the two here

UK still an outlier on the global stage. It is the only G7 country to see growth slow in 2017
Read 4 tweets
Jun 28, 2018
A primer on levels, changes and changes in changes of UK productivity

i.e what people get wrong all the time

UK workers produce less in an hour than French or Germans

H/T @bankofengland Andy Haldane whose speech provides most of the charts)…
@bankofengland CHANGES

Productivity levels have been growing over time

(The upward slope in the levels lines in these two charts)
@bankofengland CHANGES IN CHANGES

The growth rate of UK productivity has slowed.

This is the productivity puzzle

Shown by flattening of the line in first chart and widening of the gap between UK and the others in the second
Read 10 tweets
Jun 26, 2018
Japanese ambassador says pointedly that Japan was first to express concerns about Brexit in Sept 2016 “because we work through summer”

Comes after acceptance U.K./EU negotiations will shut down over summer #SMMTSummit
He adds that U.K. government has studied its paper “recently”

“It’s taken a little time”
But says recently progress quite Japanese meeting with PM.

“This is the spirit which will move the process forward”
Read 4 tweets

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