+++ A copy of the draft 5 Star/League agreement (dated yesterday) has been leaked to @HuffPostItalia - I am going to tweet the most relevant sections. Full link below. huffingtonpost.it/2018/05/15/un-…
1) Five Star and the League expect the @ecb to forgive 250 billion euros in Italian bonds bought via quantitative easing, in order to bring down Italy's debt
2) The two parties want to re-open European Treaties and to "radically reform" the stability and growth pact. The coalition would also want to reconsider Italy's contribution to the EU budget.
3) According to @HuffPostItalia, the 5 Star/League draft agreement would include an opt-out mechanism to leave the euro in an "agreed manner" were there to be a "clear popular will" to do so.
4) The draft document says Italy should stay in Nato, but asks for an immediate withdrawal of sanctions vs Russia, so that Moscow can return to be a "strategic partner" in conflict zones
5) The draft agreement would see the Italian government spend 17 billion euros a year on a "citizens' income". The European Commission would contribute spending 20% of the European Social Fund
6) According to @HuffPostItalia, the 5 Star/League draft document says there would be a "flat tax"... but with several tax rates and deductions
7) Italy's pension reform would be dismantled: workers would be able to retire when the sum of their retirement age and years of contribution is at least 100.
8) The draft coalition agreement of a 5 Star/Lega government leaked to @HuffPostItalia calls for a revision of the Dublin regulation on immigration and for compulsory relocation of asylum seekers across the EU
+++ The 5 Star Movement and the League have just issued a joint statement saying that this is an "old" version of the coalition agreement, which has been abundantly revised, for example making it clear that Italy would stay in the euro (h/t @adealdis @ARoldering)
Congratulations to @DeAngelis_tw @delvecchiog @clapaudice @carlorenda and Lucia Annunziata on a fabulous scoop. Please #FF them and @HuffPostItalia for tonight's great job.
One small thought: The only way to try to enact most of this programme is for #Italy to leave the eurozone and the EU. The League and the 5 Star Movement have just said they want to stay in the currency union. This makes most of this plan a complete non-starter.
(Judging from the comments on my timeline, the rest of the world is not taking this draft of the contract for a 5 Star-League "government of change" too seriously. Unless the new version is radically different, Salvini and Di Maio will have some explaining to do... #Italy)

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More from @FerdiGiugliano

May 28, 2018
1 - There is a lot of confusion over why Italy’s President #Mattarella chose to veto Paolo Savona as finance minister, leading to the collapse of a possible 5 Star-League government. Here’s a short thread explaining what he said last night. #Italy
2 - The main problem was Savona’s explicit support for a ‘Plan B’ to leave the euro - which he did not withdraw before receiving the nomination. This plan had to be secretive, according to a set of slides he co-authored in 2015.
3 - If you are an investor in Italian bonds and you think the finance minister may have a secret plan to leave the euro, what you do? You sell your government bonds, as you fear you will be paid back in a less valuable currency (Lira). This causes a self-fulfilling crisis.
Read 9 tweets
May 27, 2018
Mattarella has just spoken. He confirmed the problem was over the appointment of the finance minister. He said he was open to a ‘political appointee’, not to someone who would sleepwalk Italy out of the euro. He concludes that arguing for ‘Ital-exit’ should be done openly. #Italy
+++ The 5 Star Movement is now reportedly considering an impeachment of Italy’s President Sergio Mattarella.
Why the appointment of Italy’s finance minister is so important. My @bopinion take from this week. google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bloo…
Read 11 tweets
Mar 5, 2018
Good morning all from Rome - as you can see I have opted for the large moka pot this morning. We will all need it! Here are a few thoughts on #Italianelections2018 after an extraordinary night.
1. There are two ways to look at this #ItalianElection2018. One is the electoral outcome: a badly hung parliament. The other is the political message: an anti-establishment triumph.
2. Let's start with the electoral arithmetics. It's ugly. None of the three blocs (Centre-right, Centre-left, 5 Star Movement) will be able to secure a majority. We will need some form of grand coalition, which, in a way is what we always expected.
Read 11 tweets

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