Thread by @BurakKadercan

What are #Erdogan’s strategic choices, if loses elections (which he won’t unless opposition includes #HDP support):
1) Resign peacefully & wait for opposition to implode (it certainly will)
2) Declare “national [milli] democracy” to stay indefinitely, citing external enemies +

+ If #Erdogan loses and chooses to resign peacefully, he’ll be at an advantage in the long run. Opposition seems united at the moment (a generous assessment), but coalition members will lose their heads if they win & turn against each other instantly. So... +

+ So, even if Erdogan loses, coalition members won’t be able to keep it together, simply because they come from very different positions, & given nuances of the election system, each will claim victory belongs to them. PLUS: economy is tanking, they’ll have to deal with the mess+

+ *Under normal circumstances* waiting it out would be Erdogan’s best bet. This way:
1) He *would* shame us all, proving himself more of a democrat than he gets credit
2) He’d watch coalition cannibalize itself, blaming them for mismanaging the economy.

But, one fact remains...+

+ The fact that remains: on his way to securing absolute power, #Erdogan made absolute enemies out of the ~50% that is not his supporters. If he’s not in power, all will have strong incentives to go after him & family/associates, if for nothing else, for allying with #Gulenists +

+ So, under these circumstances, if he loses, #Erdogan would be taking a huge risk to his personal safety if he resigns peacefully. Again, benefits would be immense, but the risk is also huge. Hatred against Erdogan among opposition folks should not be underestimated +

+So, what would Turkey look like if Erdogan loses but somehow refused to step down (or rigs or cancels the elections in the last minute, thinking he’d lose)? 2 scenarios are possible. Remember: in both scenarios, Erdogan will blame external forces & their domestic collaborators +

+ If Erdogan loses elections & refuses to step down, two scenarios:
1) Opposition will cry out & protest, but will either be deterred by police reaction (as well as pro-AKP mob & militia) or preventively subdued by force
2) AKP will fail to contain the protests.

If #2, then... +

+If AKP tries to contain protests & fails there will be two sub-scenarios:
1) Bloodied protests eventually triggering military coup, likely spearheaded outside chain of command secular officers
2) low or high intensity civil war

Many TR folks think civil war impossible, but...+

+ TR thinking that “civil war is impossible” derive from a common misunderstanding about civil wars as a concept: you don’t need “everyone fighting everyone,” all you need is one armed faction fighting another or the state. Plus: TR did witness a low-intensity civil war in 1970s+

+ Summing up:
1) it’s more likely than not that Erdogan will win
2) more likely he’d not step down if he loses
3) all bets are off over ultimate suppression or low/high intensity conflict (which can trigger a coup)

Paradoxically, Erdogan’s defeat would not guarantee stability.