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I can estimate how long it will take me to drive to Des Moines, and be "close enough." There are lights, stops, traffic, weather to consider, but mostly it's me choosing route and rate.
Route has speed limits, traffic features, raw distance. Those are not up to me, really. I have limits, but the limits make the trip predictable.
The fewer items are under my control, the less likely the estimation.

Can I get to des moines in 3 hours? Probably, if you provide me a fast plane or fast helicopter and clear weather. Otherwise, no.
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