Gold: Sitting like a Coiled Spring, #gold remains below $1200/oz on Monday, although it has recovered a little ground from the lows last week. 1/7
Gold: Why did I use the ‘Coiled Spring’ analogy? Because of build-up of Managed Money short #gold positions held on the Comex Futures market. Gross Managed Money short positions increased by a further 1.7 million ounces last week and now stand at a new record 18.8moz. 2/7
Gold: This has driven the net Managed Money #gold position to a larger net short position. 3/7
Gold: And the ‘legacy’ net speculative #gold position is now net short for the first time since 2001. 4/7
Gold: Some people have correctly pointed out that this is not unique. In the late 1990s, speculators were regularly net short #gold. But US interest rates were materially higher then, with 3m LIBOR around 6% through that period, a far cry from 2.3% today. 5/7
Gold: Gold: Also, central banks were large net sellers of #gold in the late 1990s, while producers enthusiastically also added to their hedgebooks during that period: neither of which is the case at the moment. 6/7
Gold: Of course, gold could trade lower if the US dollar resumes its strength, but in light of positioning; with decent volumes seen in Shanghai of late; and gold in India moving back towards a premium, the risks to me seem skewed towards a sharp recovery at some point. 7/7
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