Thread by @charles_gaba

⚠️⚠️⚠️ THREAD: On the 1-year anniversary of the @HouseGOP passing the #AHCA (to repeal the #ACA), how many Americans would’ve lost their healthcare coverage in YOUR Congressional District?

1/ One year ago today, the @HouseGOP passed the #AHCA, which would have repealed the #ACA and replaced it with a plan which the CBO projected would cause 24 million people to lose healthcare coverage by 2026: cbo.gov/publication/52…

2/ The CBO didn’t break their 24 million projection out by State or Congressional District, but @EmilyG_DC of @amprog worked with @Cutler_econ to do just that. americanprogress.org/issues/healthc…

3/ At the same time, I had previously put together my own analysis/projection of how many people would likely lose coverage in every Congressional District in the event of a FULL repeal of the #ACA without ANY replacement whatsoever: acasignups.net/17/03/22/updat…

4/ I therefore not only recompiled the CAP projections into color-coded, state-by-state breakouts, I also ran the numbers side by side with my own projections to see how “clean” repeal would’ve stacked up against the #AHCA. The results are telling: acasignups.net/17/03/22/how-m…

5/ I’m going to repost the individual state/district tables for both scenarios one more time, with a special bonus at the end. Please bear with me (and if you find my work of value, please consider supporting it: acasignups.net/18/03/15/help-… )

6/ OK, everyone strap in; it’s gonna be a bumpy ride. Here we go…

7/ ALABAMA: Under “clean” repeal, around 128,000 were projected to lose coverage. Under the #AHCA, around 444,000 were projected to lose coverage.

8/ ALASKA: Under “clean” repeal, around 37,000 were projected to lose coverage. Under the #AHCA, around 44,000 were projected to lose coverage.

9/ ARIZONA: Under “clean” repeal, around 516,000 were projected to lose coverage. Under the #AHCA, around 419,000 were projected to lose coverage.

10/ ARKANSAS: Under "clean" repeal, around 380,000
were projected to lose coverage. Under the #AHCA, around 197,000 were projected to lose coverage.

11/ CALIFORNIA: Under "clean" repeal, around 4.9 MILLION were projected to lose coverage. Under the #AHCA, around 2.6 MILLION were projected to lose coverage.

12/ COLORADO: Under "clean" repeal, around 499,000 were projected to lose coverage. Under the #AHCA, around 312,000 were projected to lose coverage.

13/ CONNECTICUT: Under "clean" repeal, around
282,000 were projected to lose coverage. Under the #AHCA, around 220,000 were projected to lose coverage.

14/ DELAWARE: Under "clean" repeal, around 28,000 were projected to lose coverage. Under the #AHCA, around 62,000 were projected to lose coverage.

15/ DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA: Under "clean" repeal, around 16,000 were projected to lose coverage. Under the #AHCA, around 49,000 were projected to lose coverage.

16/ FLORIDA: Under "clean" repeal, around 1.3 MILLION were projected to lose coverage. Under the #AHCA, around 1.8 MILLION were projected to lose coverage.

17/ GEORGIA: Under "clean" repeal, around 345,000 were projected to lose coverage. Under the #AHCA, around 960,000 were projected to lose coverage.

18/ HAWAII: Under "clean" repeal, around 47,000 were projected to lose coverage. Under the #AHCA, around 82,000 were projected to lose coverage.

19/ IDAHO: Under "clean" repeal, around 73,000 were projected to lose coverage. Under the #AHCA, around 135,000 were projected to lose coverage.

20/ ILLINOIS: Under "clean" repeal, around 888,000 were projected to lose coverage. Under the #AHCA, around 757,000 were projected to lose coverage.

21/ INDIANA: Under "clean" repeal, around 539,000 were projected to lose coverage. Under the #AHCA, around 365,000 were projected to lose coverage.

22/ IOWA: Under "clean" repeal, around 185,000 were projected to lose coverage. Under the #AHCA, around 171,000 were projected to lose coverage.

23/ KANSAS: Under "clean" repeal, around 65,000 were projected to lose coverage. Under the #AHCA, around 216,000 were projected to lose coverage.

24/ KENTUCKY: Under "clean" repeal, around 487,000 were projected to lose coverage. Under the #AHCA, around 284,000 were projected to lose coverage.

25/ LOUISIANA: Under "clean" repeal, around 509,000 were projected to lose coverage. Under the #AHCA, around 309,000 were projected to lose coverage.

26/ MAINE: Under "clean" repeal, around 56,000 were projected to lose coverage. Under the #AHCA, around 101,000 were projected to lose coverage.

27/ MARYLAND: Under "clean" repeal, around 369,000 were projected to lose coverage. Under the #AHCA, around 313,000 were projected to lose coverage.

28/ MASSACHUSETTS: Under "clean" repeal, around 351,000 were projected to lose coverage. Under the #AHCA, around 410,000 were projected to lose coverage.

29/ MICHIGAN: Under "clean" repeal, around 868,000 were projected to lose coverage. Under the #AHCA, around 604,000 were projected to lose coverage.

30/ MINNESOTA: Under "clean" repeal, around 335,000 were projected to lose coverage. Under the #AHCA, around 415,000 were projected to lose coverage.

31/ MISSISSIPPI: Under "clean" repeal, around 64,000 were projected to lose coverage. Under the #AHCA, around 290,000 were projected to lose coverage.

32/ MISSOURI: Under "clean" repeal, around 171,000 were projected to lose coverage. Under the #AHCA, around 479,000 were projected to lose coverage.

33/ MONTANA: Under "clean" repeal, around 96,000 were projected to lose coverage. Under the #AHCA, around 61,000 were projected to lose coverage.

34/ NEBRASKA: Under "clean" repeal, around 60,000 were projected to lose coverage. Under the #AHCA, around 149,000 were projected to lose coverage.

35/ NEVADA: Under "clean" repeal, around 383,000 were projected to lose coverage. Under the #AHCA, around 153,000 were projected to lose coverage.

36/ NEW HAMPSHIRE: Under "clean" repeal, around 78,000 were projected to lose coverage. Under the #AHCA, around 65,000 were projected to lose coverage.

37/ NEW JERSEY: Under "clean" repeal, around 728,000 were projected to lose coverage. Under the #AHCA, around 510,000 were projected to lose coverage.

38/ NEW MEXICO: Under "clean" repeal, around 290,000 were projected to lose coverage. Under the #AHCA, around 147,000 were projected to lose coverage.

39/ NEW YORK: Under "clean" repeal, around 3.1 MILLION were projected to lose coverage. Under the #AHCA, around 2.27 MILLION were projected to lose coverage.

40/ NORTH CAROLINA: Under "clean" repeal, around 402,000 were projected to lose coverage. Under the #AHCA, around 1.0 MILLION were projected to lose coverage.

41/ NORTH DAKOTA: Under "clean" repeal, around 34,000 were projected to lose coverage. Under the #AHCA, around 33,000 were projected to lose coverage.

42/ OHIO: Under "clean" repeal, around 848,000 were projected to lose coverage. Under the #AHCA, around 654,000 were projected to lose coverage.

43/ OKLAHOMA: Under "clean" repeal, around 99,000 were projected to lose coverage. Under the #AHCA, around 350,000 were projected to lose coverage.

44/ OREGON: Under "clean" repeal, around 541,000 were projected to lose coverage. Under the #AHCA, around 299,000 were projected to lose coverage.

45/ PENNSYLVANIA: Under "clean" repeal, around 979,000 were projected to lose coverage. Under the #AHCA, around 765,000 were projected to lose coverage.

46/ RHODE ISLAND: Under "clean" repeal, around 82,000 were projected to lose coverage. Under the #AHCA, around 59,000 were projected to lose coverage.

47/ SOUTH CAROLINA: Under "clean" repeal, around 165,000 were projected to lose coverage. Under the #AHCA, around 432,000 were projected to lose coverage.

48/ SOUTH DAKOTA: Under "clean" repeal, around 21,000 were projected to lose coverage. Under the #AHCA, around 63,000 were projected to lose coverage.

49/ TENNESSEE: Under "clean" repeal, around 160,000 were projected to lose coverage. Under the #AHCA, around 579,000 were projected to lose coverage.

50/ TEXAS: Under "clean" repeal, around 832,000 were projected to lose coverage. Under the #AHCA, around 2.53 MILLION were projected to lose coverage.

51/ UTAH: Under "clean" repeal, around 139,000 were projected to lose coverage. Under the #AHCA, around 212,000 were projected to lose coverage.

52/ VERMONT: Under "clean" repeal, around 38,000 were projected to lose coverage. Under the #AHCA, around 49,000 were projected to lose coverage.

53/ VIRGINIA: Under "clean" repeal, around 275,000 were projected to lose coverage. Under the #AHCA, around 565,000 were projected to lose coverage.

54/ WASHINGTON: Under "clean" repeal, around 734,000 were projected to lose coverage. Under the #AHCA, around 418,000 were projected to lose coverage.

55/ WEST VIRGINIA: Under "clean" repeal, around 193,000 were projected to lose coverage. Under the #AHCA, around 124,000 were projected to lose coverage.

56/ WISCONSIN: Under "clean" repeal, around 165,000 were projected to lose coverage. Under the #AHCA, around 412,000 were projected to lose coverage.

57/ WYOMING: Under "clean" repeal, around 17,000 were projected to lose coverage. Under the #AHCA, around 43,000 were projected to lose coverage.

58/ WHEW! Done. OK, now a couple of things to note: First, these tables are all from a year ago, so there’s a half-dozen members of Congress with different representatives today.

59/ More importantly, however, here’s all 50 states in one big table (the yellow columns are the critical ones). Notice anything?

60/ I’m sure you noticed that in some states, the “clean repeal” total was larger, which you probably expected…but in other states, MORE people would have lost coverage under the AHCA than under a “clean” repeal!! Why is that? Well, there’s a couple of reasons…

61/ For one thing, “clean” repeal assumed immediate effect while the AHCA projection was losses as of 2026. HOWEVER, the main reason is that “clean” repeal would’ve wiped out ALL ACA Medicaid expansion but left traditional Medicaid alone…while AHCA would’ve screwed with both.

62/ Since some states expanded Medicaid under the ACA while others didn’t, this means each type of repeal would’ve had different effects on Medicaid enrollment depending on the state.

63/ NOW HERE’S THE PUNCHLINE: Take a look at the last row in each yellow column. Notice anything?

64/ Yep, that’s right: Nationally, almost exactly 24M were projected to lose healthcare coverage EITHER WAY. For all of that drama, the @HouseGOP would’ve screwed almost exactly the same number of people out of healthcare coverage if they’d simply repealed the #ACA outright.

65/ Of course, there were a half-dozen OTHER terrible “repeal/replace” bills tossed around last year as well: #BCRAP, “Skinny Repeal”, #GrahamCassidy, etc…and the projections ranged from as “few” as 13 million to as many as 32 million. Every one of them sucked eggs.

66/ Here’s a refresher course in each of them (scroll to 9:30 for the overview). Note that this video doesn’t even touch on the Medicaid side: acasignups.net/18/05/04/now-e…

67/ Anyway, I pray that’s the last time I have to repost that thread. /END