Sunday Times splash is fascinating. Well done @ShippersUnbound

This bit should worry any sentient politician the most: the Dexeu response saying “none” of this will come to pass.


In defiance of official advice, experts and logic

It feels like the absolutism of a cult
I don’t mind anyone arguing from dexeu - if they intelligently engage with the arguments - why any one bit of this won’t come to pass.

But surely dexeu embarrasses itself with am absolutist hardline reluctance to accept any issue might arise

DexEU of all departments should be the realist department rather than the hardline department of this project is to work.

So follow @SteveBakerHW @SuellaBraverman @DavidDavisMP for more nuance and realism in coming days...

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More from @SamCoatesSky

Oct 2, 2018
Much of this conference has gone well for Theresa May, and her allies seem pretty happen

BUT three reasons for caution
1. The DUP has escalated their opposition to possible solutions to the backstop today. Arlene Foster saying no to new regulatory checks in the Irish Sea. Sammy Wilson goes further: “no new regulatory borders” between NI and GB
2. Dominic Raab told conference that if the EU tried to “lock us by the back door” on the customs union, the U.K. cd be left with “no choice” but to leave without a deal.

If he holds to this, how does he see thru this:
Read 5 tweets
Sep 27, 2018
This morning on Times p1 we set out latest cabinet thinking about Brexit

Key swing voters in cabinet - Raab, Gove, Hunt, Javid said to be the list - are worrying about “no deal” if Chequers rejected

Some important context…
1. All 4 say they are loyalists. All 4 back Chequers for now. This means all 4 will help her thru conference

2. This concern only arises if the Oct 18
EU council effectively halts negotiations. No10 hope that it won’t

3. There’s less faith amongst the 4 after Salzburg
4. Some senior Whitehall figures see Salzburg as primarily a mistake in the messaging and communication, not strategy, and nothing fundamental changed

5. If Britain moves on embracing customs union for longer and EU softens hostility to SM for goods, some see deal possible
Read 6 tweets
Sep 3, 2018
So who is behind the P1 Telegraph polling tonight?
Here is the firm the Telegraph say did the work
Who is behind IQR Ltd? Lynton and Mark
Read 4 tweets
Jul 20, 2018
A number of people asking if @JulianSmithUK is about to be sacked or resign

On basis of currently available facts I don’t think so

I also don’t think people are being cynical enough about what just happened because:
1. Julian Smith is being upfront that he wanted to break the pairing system for non maternity pairs. Looking at the public statements of Theresa May, I think she endorses this position. So he won’t have “dont anything wrong” in her eyes other than the Brandon Lewis “mistake”
2. Julian Smith had lots and lots of enemies. It’s a Parliament that must do brexit and the Tories don’t have a majority and the party is at war w/ itself and both sides constantly challenging the PM.

So to an extent this was a inevitable consequence for the holder of this post
Read 6 tweets
Jul 13, 2018
In what will potentially be a big relief for government, there’s now conflicting reports of what brexiteers are to do on Monday’s bill.

After ERG sources said they would vote against third reading (and some undoubtedly thinking of it), Jacob Rees Mogg now indicating he will not
Rees Mogg: The bill allows us to roll over existing EU trade deals and is an essential part of no deal planning.
I think it’s fair to say government at all levels taking the threat on Monday seriously.

But the spectre of ERG infighting - and that, now at this hour is where I believe we are - will cheer Team No10
Read 4 tweets
Jul 13, 2018
If Trump wasn’t enough, this issue is flashing critical in government

How does Theresa May now get thru Monday’s trade votes.

Brexiteers have made clear they will vote against 3rd Reading on Monday. As will all the opposition.

Trade bill falls?…
On Wednesday the ERG said they would vote for 4 amendments to the trade bill as symbolic show of strength. Labour etc wouldn’t join

Yesterday it emerged they also will vote against third reading. Opposition oppose the bill. Just 6 ish MPs swapping sides kills the bill
Theresa May can

1. Fight and maybe lose. Losing a brexit bill could be very serious indeed for her premiership

2. Pull the vote. But that’s it - she will still be accused with some justification of being unable to command majority in Commons for her brexit

It’s a standoff
Read 4 tweets

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