Much of this conference has gone well for Theresa May, and her allies seem pretty happen

BUT three reasons for caution 1. The DUP has escalated their opposition to possible solutions to the backstop today. Arlene Foster saying no to new regulatory checks in the Irish Sea. Sammy Wilson goes further: “no new regulatory borders” between NI and GB

This morning on Times p1 we set out latest cabinet thinking about Brexit

Key swing voters in cabinet - Raab, Gove, Hunt, Javid said to be the list - are worrying about “no deal” if Chequers rejected

Some important context

thetimes.co.uk/article/bc2863… 1. All 4 say they are loyalists. All 4 back Chequers for now. This means all 4 will help her thru conference

2. This concern only arises if the Oct 18
EU council effectively halts negotiations. No10 hope that it won’t

3. There’s less faith amongst the 4 after Salzburg

So who is behind the P1 Telegraph polling tonight? Here is the firm the Telegraph say did the work

A number of people asking if @JulianSmithUK is about to be sacked or resign

On basis of currently available facts I don’t think so

I also don’t think people are being cynical enough about what just happened because: 1. Julian Smith is being upfront that he wanted to break the pairing system for non maternity pairs. Looking at the public statements of Theresa May, I think she endorses this position. So he won’t have “dont anything wrong” in her eyes other than the Brandon Lewis “mistake”

In what will potentially be a big relief for government, there’s now conflicting reports of what brexiteers are to do on Monday’s bill.

After ERG sources said they would vote against third reading (and some undoubtedly thinking of it), Jacob Rees Mogg now indicating he will not Rees Mogg: The bill allows us to roll over existing EU trade deals and is an essential part of no deal planning.

If Trump wasn’t enough, this issue is flashing critical in government

How does Theresa May now get thru Monday’s trade votes.

Brexiteers have made clear they will vote against 3rd Reading on Monday. As will all the opposition.

Trade bill falls?

thetimes.co.uk/article/9829b1… On Wednesday the ERG said they would vote for 4 amendments to the trade bill as symbolic show of strength. Labour etc wouldn’t join

Yesterday it emerged they also will vote against third reading. Opposition oppose the bill. Just 6 ish MPs swapping sides kills the bill

Things are getting nasty (nastier) inside government I’ve just been leaked an internal email. A source says it’s from Robbie Gibb (May’s director of communications) to special advisors

Brexiteers say this is evidence Robbie is not a “proper” brexiteer any more. To me, this looks like a defence of government policy

Tory hard brexiteers are tonight circulating an 18 page critique of Theresa May’s cabinet deal which they call a “devastating critique”.

Here it is
1/5 2/5

Chief whip Julian Smith told by ERG that any “soft Brexit” agreement would damage party and damage TM personally.

MPs told him they won’t vote for any legislation that gives away £40bn Brexit bill without comprehensive trade deal agreed Andrew Bridgen was said to be the most trenchant of the contributions

The implication was that soft Brexit would mean some of the no confidence letters would be submitted to Graham Brady but unclear how explicit this was

I have contacted the DWP press office for a response to the NAO / McVey letter.

Response here when I get it

Thread on how they MIGHT respond A source with direct experience of such moments said that this issue will be deeply divisive in the department

A more assertive civil service would block any official response (a dwp “spokesman” quote) that attacks Morse or contradicts him

DGs and perm secs wd be involved

😮

David Davis’ allies tell me he’s on the same page as Greg Clark, who made his softest ever brexit speech at yesterday’s Times CEO summit.

Tbh I’m a bit confused by this assertion - backed up with bits of DD speeches - but obviously delighted with such outbreaks of harmony Clearly if DD can unite around Greg Clark’s vision of Brexit then everything is solved

5pm: Theresa May seeks to patch up relations with business at The Times CEO summit

Greg Clark urges colleagues to put "evidence first before ideology"

And the business secretary hints single market in goods not enough...

thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/i… Greg Clark to The Times CEO summit:

“What [business] don’t want is a running debate... Business looks with dismay where there is disagreement. That does not inspire confidence. My approach is to be very engaged with businesses,”

DONT PANIC!
😯

But the Brexit “no deal” minister appears to be very interested in gold....

🥇 This is the Register of Members Financial Interests entry for @SteveBakerHW

Notice the entry for under “other sharerholidngs, valued at more than £70,000”

For something called “Glint Pay Ltd”

Twitter is not being cynical enough this morning

🙄 Today Theresa May is claiming the NHS “£20 bn” boost will come from the Brexit dividend.

She does not believe this. She know it to be untrue.

It will be funded by borrowing and tax rises in the Autumn

Why is she doing this?

🧐

There’s a developing Brexit situation

Hard to gauge how serious, but it has potential

On Friday, Olly Robbins is due to discuss “backstop” proposal in Brussels. This needs to be signed off by Brexit “war cabinet” within hours.

Last night papers hadn’t gone round to S and N A note has now gone round this morning

It is a short outline of the “backstop” which - critically - fudges the two key elements, on ECJ and time limiting

& suggests it will be published tomorrow

No10 confirm what sources across government saying - that David Davis's plan for a Lichtenstein solution and a buffer zone - wont fly.

A No10 spokesman says the PM "will not accept a customs border down the Irish sea".

Ie no special status. Why someone ever thought it was a good idea to brief this, I don't know. Breaks red lines. Offends DUP. Breaks up UK. Keeps part of the UK in the customs union. Smacks of someone desperate. It's so silly I wonder if it's a hostile anti-DD operation

thesun.co.uk/news/6423932/d…

Couple more bits of intel related to last night’s leaked ERG letter.

Strictly for SW1 obsessives - no complaints please that this is boring: Firstly, the ERG were very keen to keep this secret. It hadn’t leaked all weekend (it went to No10 on Friday). Notably, they kept the letter off the main now-famous ERG whatsapp Group because they think remain-minded MPs are leaking stuff from that (see Buzzfeed recently for EG)

So what does the letter from 62 Tory MPs mean? What do their demands amount to and how different is it from what the cabinet were likely to agree?

Here’s why it’s significant 1. Theresa May is being told by over 60 Tory MPs they will no longer support her brexit plans if members of the cabinet agree on Thursday to keep Britain too closely aligned to the European Union.

There are problems with Brexit in Whitehall.

Here’s a small tale of government indecision, prevarication and “no deal” neurosis with big implications. 2 qs:

1. Have you heard of the Road Haulage and truckers bill🚚

2. Until you do: Is “no deal” planning **really** happening🐌 The government isn’t keen on you paying too much attention to the haulage bill. This is policy across whitehall - depts told not to highlight its significance

But without it - & we crash out of the EU and rely on WTO rules - will we have food on shop shelves
🚚🍏🥕🥩🚚❓

Here is a short tale about the cost - £££ in future tax bills - caused by Theresa May’s caution & reluctance to get on with decisions. If you’re in a cheery Saturday mood, perhaps don’t read on as it’s a 😐🤔🔥🤭😡 story - for the faint hearted Saturday Live is on Radio 4 now Urine leaking thru the ceilings ☔️
Offices where there’s no escape in the event of fire ⚰️
Air vents that flames can travel through in minutes 💨🔥🌪
Not many in SW1 dispute Houses of Parliament need massive refurbishment costing £3-5bn (tho some do). The question is when.

So here’s a scoop from this morning’s paper on whether No10 thinks EU-UK trade deal will be finished by March 2019
thetimes.co.uk/article/9ceb73… A very senior No10 aide has been saying that they think there will be only “heads of agreement” by Mar 2019