Last-minute horse-trading got No.10 out of a hole, but at a price
2/
The gap between rebels and ERG types might be too big to bridge.
3/
That means either rebels got enough of Grieve amendment to be satisfied, in which case ERG might kick off elsewhere (e.g. leadership challenge)
4/
Or that they didn't, in which case except next round of ping-pong to be a heavier defeat than last night was shaping up to be. Followed by ERG kicking off
5/
Issue can't be avoided, as UK must have this legislation in place prior to withdrawal and no chance of declaring amendment ultra vires
6/
Plus, even if bullet can be dodged here, plenty more legislation coming down the tracks for other clashes
7/
No.10 strategy remains one of party mgt before Brexit policy. Perhaps rapidly shrinking timeline will help focus backbench minds and keep them from pulling their various triggers, but that can be little more than a hope
8/
Overall, another unforced complication in the process
/end
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Possibly more for me than for you, let's try to pull this week together a bit:
1/
Let's start with the EU side
Having largely kept heads down during conference season, yesterday's Tusk/Varadkar presser demonstrated that EU is keeping the pressure on
2/
The tension seems to be between COM/EUCO and IE, as @pmdfoster explained well yesterday: IE making conciliatory noises, central EU bodies pushing EU integrity line
Back in Sept, there was much talk about this being a crunch point in the UK debate, as May would come under fire for Chequers and there would be scope for changes/realignments/whatever
2/
Certainly that first bit has happened, with numerous op-eds over the weekend and assorted fringe events (inc. yesterday's Johnson speech)
3/