While I kick my heels for a meeting, let's think about Brexit and inevitability:

1/ Let's start off by noting that I'm not a big one for inevitability, in any political situation

2/

So, what to make of today?

1/ Over the weekend, lots of +ve optics and warm words, to get mvt from the conference-season slump

But lots of reining in during the day

2/

Possibly more for me than for you, let's try to pull this week together a bit:

1/ Let's start with the EU side

Having largely kept heads down during conference season, yesterday's Tusk/Varadkar presser demonstrated that EU is keeping the pressure on

2/

Let's just work through this one, given the attention it's getting

https://twitter.com/eucopresident/status/1047825916905357312

By taking the CON rebels' terminology, Tusk is making a point

But what point?

Interesting to see how it's just as UK debate sits down for a bit on Brexit, to recover from conference season, negotiations w EU step up If past fortnight has been about domestic management, then coming fortnight will be about UK working w EU to find ways to get mvt on WA/PD

So, the CON party conference and Brexit:

1/ Back in Sept, there was much talk about this being a crunch point in the UK debate, as May would come under fire for Chequers and there would be scope for changes/realignments/whatever

2/

Johnson's speech in full: shar.es/a1elf2 via @PoliticsHome @politicshome Essentially, we're back in "Australian points-based system" territory

Don't sweat the details, but trust my plan with the Anglo-friendly name and show some bulldog spirit

Some thoughts on negotiation by distraction: Often in political negotiation, you find this happening. A bunch of anger about X, while trying to sort out the substantively more important issue of Y

Today's negotiation lesson:

No negotiation is ever stand-alone. It's coloured by what's come before and what follows for everyone involved.

So your actions, choices and words will matter down the line To apply that to Art.50, yes, you could walk away, but that wouldn't mean the end of it, in either the narrow or the broader sense

Let's run through this once again:

1/

https://twitter.com/PaulGoodmanCH/status/1044830491403333632

'Chequers' is shorthand for the package agreed at a meeting of Cabinet at the eponymous house, which then got turned into a White Paper

2/ gov.uk/government/pub…

Since we're here, let's just run through another key part of negotiation theory, namely the relationship between what you can get from a negotiation relative to what you can get outside it:

1/ In any negotiation, there are a number of universal observations.

Most importantly, there is always the best deal that can be reached within that negotiation, and there's always the best outcome that can be reached by yourself outside it

2/

Let's talk about no-deal planning for a bit, because several of us are getting confused again:

1/ In any negotiation it is prudent to prepare for not reaching an agreement, since you can't guarantee that the other lot will be amenable to a negotiated outcome

2/

Worth recapping what all these no-deal contingency notices have shown:

1/

https://twitter.com/Usherwood/status/1044234799903395842

For me, three key takeaways from these

2/

Final set of no-deal notices now being posted: gov.uk/government/col…

1/ Includes:
food labelling gov.uk/government/pub…
flights gov.uk/government/pub…
timber (!) gov.uk/government/pub…

2/

Maybe not your priority today, but certainly worth a peruse

1/

https://twitter.com/UKIP/status/1044152573056495616

This 'interim manifesto' comes off the back of last week's party conference, which got smothered by Salzburg/May and all the rest

2/

This was always going to be the issue with another referendum: fundamental disagreement about explicit and implicit purpose of the exercise

1/

https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1044162075327647745

Part of success of #PeoplesVote agt was saying that it was about democracy/legitimacy of the outcome

Fine, but subtext of reopening #EUref was always going to be there

2/

It's Monday morning, so where are we with Brexit?

1/ Well, as you might expect after last week's unambiguous statement from the EU that the UK needs to get moving fast on the Withdrawal Agt, not much

2/

A summary of today in Brexit:

1/ May's rightly pointed out the red lines on both sides, but hasn't got a solution other than the one she had before

2/

So, doubling down then And pushing back on to EU to make alternative plans

But EU thinks it's down to UK to sort this out

Let's indulge this one for a moment:

1/

https://twitter.com/elliotttimes/status/1043102379690917888

If she's resigning, then EU will have to work out how to manage an extension of Art.50, because nothing will happen until end of this yr in UK

2/

Salzburg: a positive take:

1/ In the midst of all the shock and gloom, let's see if we can build a more constructive view of this week's events (as a thought exercise, if nothing else)

2/