Simon Usherwood Profile picture
@OUPolitics Prof; @UKandEU Snr Fellow Chair @UACES. Brexit, EU-UK relations + L&T (@ALPSblog). Also @JPSE_Editors @adietofbrussels
LittleGravitas 🇺🇦 🌻 🇪🇺 💙 #FBPE Profile picture Jay Jernigan Profile picture 🇬🇧Renton🐸🇺🇸⭐⭐⭐#ClearFlynn✝️🇧🇷🇮🇹⌛️🥓🤣🐶 Profile picture Birger Leth Profile picture 4 subscribed
Oct 9, 2018 18 tweets 2 min read
While I kick my heels for a meeting, let's think about Brexit and inevitability:

Let's start off by noting that I'm not a big one for inevitability, in any political situation

Oct 8, 2018 13 tweets 3 min read
So, what to make of today?

Over the weekend, lots of +ve optics and warm words, to get mvt from the conference-season slump

But lots of reining in during the day

Oct 5, 2018 17 tweets 3 min read
Possibly more for me than for you, let's try to pull this week together a bit:

Let's start with the EU side

Having largely kept heads down during conference season, yesterday's Tusk/Varadkar presser demonstrated that EU is keeping the pressure on

Oct 4, 2018 8 tweets 1 min read
Let's just work through this one, given the attention it's getting By taking the CON rebels' terminology, Tusk is making a point

But what point?
Oct 4, 2018 11 tweets 2 min read
Interesting to see how it's just as UK debate sits down for a bit on Brexit, to recover from conference season, negotiations w EU step up If past fortnight has been about domestic management, then coming fortnight will be about UK working w EU to find ways to get mvt on WA/PD
Oct 3, 2018 15 tweets 2 min read
So, the CON party conference and Brexit:

Back in Sept, there was much talk about this being a crunch point in the UK debate, as May would come under fire for Chequers and there would be scope for changes/realignments/whatever

Oct 2, 2018 6 tweets 2 min read
Johnson's speech in full: via @PoliticsHome @politicshome Essentially, we're back in "Australian points-based system" territory

Don't sweat the details, but trust my plan with the Anglo-friendly name and show some bulldog spirit
Oct 1, 2018 17 tweets 2 min read
Some thoughts on negotiation by distraction: Often in political negotiation, you find this happening. A bunch of anger about X, while trying to sort out the substantively more important issue of Y
Oct 1, 2018 7 tweets 1 min read
Today's negotiation lesson:

No negotiation is ever stand-alone. It's coloured by what's come before and what follows for everyone involved.

So your actions, choices and words will matter down the line To apply that to Art.50, yes, you could walk away, but that wouldn't mean the end of it, in either the narrow or the broader sense
Sep 26, 2018 10 tweets 2 min read
Let's run through this once again:

1/ 'Chequers' is shorthand for the package agreed at a meeting of Cabinet at the eponymous house, which then got turned into a White Paper

Sep 25, 2018 11 tweets 2 min read
Since we're here, let's just run through another key part of negotiation theory, namely the relationship between what you can get from a negotiation relative to what you can get outside it:

In any negotiation, there are a number of universal observations.

Most importantly, there is always the best deal that can be reached within that negotiation, and there's always the best outcome that can be reached by yourself outside it

Sep 25, 2018 11 tweets 2 min read
Let's talk about no-deal planning for a bit, because several of us are getting confused again:

In any negotiation it is prudent to prepare for not reaching an agreement, since you can't guarantee that the other lot will be amenable to a negotiated outcome

Sep 24, 2018 10 tweets 2 min read
Worth recapping what all these no-deal contingency notices have shown:

1/ For me, three key takeaways from these

Sep 24, 2018 5 tweets 2 min read
Final set of no-deal notices now being posted:…

food labelling…
timber (!)…

Sep 24, 2018 9 tweets 2 min read
Maybe not your priority today, but certainly worth a peruse

1/ This 'interim manifesto' comes off the back of last week's party conference, which got smothered by Salzburg/May and all the rest

Sep 24, 2018 7 tweets 2 min read
This was always going to be the issue with another referendum: fundamental disagreement about explicit and implicit purpose of the exercise

1/ Part of success of #PeoplesVote agt was saying that it was about democracy/legitimacy of the outcome

Fine, but subtext of reopening #EUref was always going to be there

Sep 24, 2018 10 tweets 2 min read
It's Monday morning, so where are we with Brexit?

Well, as you might expect after last week's unambiguous statement from the EU that the UK needs to get moving fast on the Withdrawal Agt, not much

Sep 21, 2018 8 tweets 1 min read
A summary of today in Brexit:

May's rightly pointed out the red lines on both sides, but hasn't got a solution other than the one she had before

Sep 21, 2018 4 tweets 1 min read
So, doubling down then And pushing back on to EU to make alternative plans

But EU thinks it's down to UK to sort this out
Sep 21, 2018 9 tweets 2 min read
Let's indulge this one for a moment:

1/ If she's resigning, then EU will have to work out how to manage an extension of Art.50, because nothing will happen until end of this yr in UK

Sep 21, 2018 16 tweets 3 min read
Salzburg: a positive take:

In the midst of all the shock and gloom, let's see if we can build a more constructive view of this week's events (as a thought exercise, if nothing else)