Ashman Profile picture
Jun 13, 2018 16 tweets 4 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
1. Thread on why the Trump administration is working in steady fashion to build a legal case and indict Swamp Creatures. Using SIGNPOST analysis.
2. I've gone back and forth on this question of what will happen.

Criminals need to go to jail.

I can believe it will happen, and want to see logic and evidence to back it up...
3. My friend @JamesAngleton75 posted a great thread on serious analysis. And one of his posts talked about signpost analysis.

Make a prediction, and then write out discrete indicators or signs that would concur with your prediction...

4. So okay, let's look at this a new way.

Imagine it's November of 2016, Trump is elected, and assume Trump will bring NO INDICTMENTS against the Swamp Creatures. What would that look like?

Here are some signposts we'd see along that path...
5. Trump may TRY to prosecute Swamp Creatures and fail.

In this case we would see indictments, but then juries and judges reject them.

Or, we could see popular demonstrations/riots that force Trump to back down.
6. Or, we may see Trump and the Swamp cut a tacit deal. Anyone in Trumps position would know to at least get stuff out of it if he wasn't going to prosecute...
7. We should expect to see the Swamp Creatures and their useful idiots in the media take it easy on Trump. No scorched earth campaign.

They may even praise him, or at least, wouldn't insult him so much, and certainly wouldn't incite violence against him.
8. Trump's enemies would give him political concessions and help and let him pursue some of his favorite policies. Like giving him money in Congress to build a nice big beautiful wall.
9. Trump wouldn't need to save his political capital for an existential battle for Washington's soul.

He would spend it.

And pursue his most acrimonious policies like deporting illegals, ending DACA officially, cutting the debt...
10. Trump would appease his base and the easiest way to do that would be build the wall. But he has gone at it so slowly that @AnnCoulter is mad at him now...
11. We may expect to see either highly publicized show trials of low level figures, for the appearance that he did something.
12. Or we could expect to see it go away very quietly. So there would be no IG report.

Nor would Trump talk about the criminality of the #TheSwamp on a regular basis. Every time he brings it up, if there are no prosecutions, he makes himself look worse and worse.
13. You could even have the administration leaking out, through cutouts, exonerating data that shows how #TheSwamp isn't that bad, can't be prosecuted, and didn't really commit crimes. This would explain away the absence of prosecutions.
14. Finally, we'd see no indictments.
15. If we look at the hypothesis "Trump won't prosecute Swamp Creatures" and look at the signposts we'd expect to see, they are ALL LACKING.
16. It is frankly impossible that Trump would do the exact opposite of what he should have done in a dozen different ways. The hypothesis that Trump won't prosecute Swamp Creatures is rejected.

Trump is working to prosecute them. All the signs are there...

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