I just published: “Paul Manafort = Evidence of Collusion”
Bottom line up front: Nine significant pieces of info in public record point to conspiracy with Russians and violations of federal campaign finance law...
2. Manafort joins Trump Campaign and stays in frequent contact with a Kiev-based operative who has active ties to Russian military intelligence (March 2016-)
4. Trump Campaign is told Russia has damaging info against Clinton in form of “thousands of emails,” and Manafort and Campaign then continue to set up meeting with Campaign reps and senior Russian officials (April 2016 -)
Note references to Manafort in Papadopoulos guilty plea
5. Manafort and two senior Campaign officials meet with Russian gov't emissaries offering damaging info on Clinton (June 2016)
Two members of the Russian delegation are now thought to be Russian spies.
One of the Russians at the June 9 meeting “apparently has ties to Russian intelligence” and “allegedly specializes in ‘active measures campaigns’” such as subversive political operations involving disinformation and propaganda.
Who said that?
Republican Senator Chuck Grassley:
Guess who else says two Russians at the June 9 Trump Tower meeting with Manafort were likely Russian spies:
In testimony before House Intel Committee, Rep. Dana Rohrabacher “acknowledged that [Akhmetshin and Veselnitskaya] were probably spies” based on his own knowledge of them.
But did Manafort know what the meeting would be about?
According to the House Intelligence Committee’s MAJORITY report, Manafort, Trump Jr., Kushner attended the meeting “where they expected to receive…derogatory information on candidate Clinton from Russian sources.”
6. Manafort offers “private briefings” on the campaign to Putin-linked Russian oligarch (July 2016)
7. Manafort oversees Campaign when it intervenes to defeat a call for Republican Party platform to include a provision for arming Ukraine to defend itself against Russian incursions
On @MeetThePress, Manafort adamantly and categorically denies that the Trump Campaign played any role in the platform discussions.
The same day on @ThisWeekABC, candidate Trump essentially admits his Campaign “softened” the platform language on Ukraine.
This is one of the biggest bombshells of all:
8. Russian operatives reportedly discuss (a) Russia’s efforts to coordinate with Manafort on the election and (b) Manafort’s encouraging help from the Kremlin
US intercepts of Russians in #8 are consistent with #SteeleDossier:
Steele Dossier: the "well-developed conspiracy of co-operation between [Trump campaign] and the Russian leadership…was managed on the TRUMP side by the Republican candidate’s campaign manager, Paul MANAFORT.”
9. Manafort officially resigns from the campaign, BUT reportedly continues to be involved up through the transition (August 2016-).
1. My <thread>
WSJ SCOOP on Peter Smith's 2016 operation to get Clinton emails
● WSJ raises specter Smith was killed, not suicide
● Emails involve payments to “Russian students”
● 4+ financiers
● Mueller expanding interest in Smith group
● potential ties to Flynn/Trump
...
2. First, recall multiple reports that Peter Smith’s operation was potentially linked to Flynn/Trump campaign.
Ex-British security officer GCHQ Matt Tait (@pwnallthethings), who was approached by Smith, assessed Smith's "group was formed with the blessing of the Trump campaign."
3. Smith himself told @shaneharris—who broke the original story—of line of communication with Flynn, and Smith's emails “show that his small group considered Mr. Flynn and his consulting company…to be allies in their quest" for Clinton emails
<thread> Did Kavanaugh commit perjury telling the Senate Judiciary Committee and Committee staff that first time he heard of Ramirez allegations was in Sept. 23 New Yorker article?
Here's some evidence for (incriminating) and against (exculpatory) a claim of perjury...1/
Incriminating: This exchange with Sen. Hatch during Senate testimony on Thursday, Sept. 27:
HATCH: "When did you first hear of Ms. Ramirez’s allegations against you?"
KAVANAUGH: "In the last — in the period since then, the New Yorker story." 2/
Incriminating: In Sept. 25, 2018 interview with Senate Judiciary staff, Kavanaugh even more explicitly and more clearly denied knowing about the Ramirez allegation "before the New Yorker article publication on September 23rd." 3/
Kavanaugh vs. Yale college friends, classmates (from both parties)
Excessive drinking, including to point of not recalling events?
"Kavanaugh portrayed himself in his testimony as enjoying a beer or two...but not as someone who often drank to excess during those years." 1/
“Nearly a DOZEN people who knew him well or socialized with him said Judge Kavanaugh was a heavy drinker in college. Dr. Swisher said she saw him 'very drunk' a number of times...freshmen year roommate, described his stumbling in at all hours of the night.” (NYT) 2/
Dr Swisher: “Brett was a sloppy drunk, and I know because I drank with him. I watched him drink more than a lot of people. He’d end up slurring his words, stumbling.” "It’s not credible for him to say that he has had no memory lapses in the nights that he drank to excess” WaPo 3/
1. Kavanaugh: In H.S., I was focused on studying and sports and did and saw nothing outrageous in H.S. parties
Not asked: How do you then explain the apparently grotesque sexual (and alcohol) references in your Yearbook?
<thread>...
2. Kavanaugh: My Yale roommate James Roche (who said "believable" Kav engaged in Ramirez sexual assault) does not corroborate the incident.
Not asked: What about other Yale student told of incident at the time and says “one-hundred-per-cent sure” Kavanaugh named as perpetrator?
3. Kavanaugh: I hung out with wholesome and decent friends in HS
Not asked: What about your reportedly close friendship with the misogynist Mark Judge (whose own girlfriend of three years says he admits to engaging in a sexual assault)?
<thread> on Dr Ford longtime friend's (Leland Keyser) statement to Senate:
1 discredits Grassley saying this "directly contradict(s)" Ford
2 undermines Kavanaugh defense of mistaken identity
3 unsurprising she doesn't recall party
4 adds to Ford’s credibility to have named her…
I’ll begin by saying opponents of Kavanaugh should not try to rationalize away Keyser’s statements.
I may not agree with the exact way he phrased/framed it, but @saletan is making these points:
3. I always recall the NYT piece—with major scoop of leaked McFarland emails—included this tantalizing nugget of a planned meeting with President-elect Trump later that same day. Raising Q of what Trump knew
4. All this lying to FBI by Trump team raises BIG question whether it was coordinated, which could seriously implicate Trump in actions that even @AlanDersh thinks is a crime for a President to commit.
5. Coordinated lying to FBI could implicate Priebus, McGahn.
Priebus, McGahn create 6-page memo which close observers know is FALSE. Memo is fiction saying Flynn lied to Trump team about Russia call. (Priebus himself was told of Rus sanction call in Dec '16 per McFarland email.)