1. My <thread>
WSJ SCOOP on Peter Smith's 2016 operation to get Clinton emails

● WSJ raises specter Smith was killed, not suicide
● Emails involve payments to “Russian students”
● 4+ financiers
● Mueller expanding interest in Smith group
● potential ties to Flynn/Trump
...

https://twitter.com/WSJ/status/1048910417110753281

2. First, recall multiple reports that Peter Smith’s operation was potentially linked to Flynn/Trump campaign.

Ex-British security officer GCHQ Matt Tait (@pwnallthethings), who was approached by Smith, assessed Smith's "group was formed with the blessing of the Trump campaign."

<thread> Did Kavanaugh commit perjury telling the Senate Judiciary Committee and Committee staff that first time he heard of Ramirez allegations was in Sept. 23 New Yorker article?

Here's some evidence for (incriminating) and against (exculpatory) a claim of perjury...1/ Incriminating: This exchange with Sen. Hatch during Senate testimony on Thursday, Sept. 27:

HATCH: "When did you first hear of Ms. Ramirez’s allegations against you?"

KAVANAUGH: "In the last — in the period since then, the New Yorker story." 2/

Kavanaugh vs. Yale college friends, classmates (from both parties)

Excessive drinking, including to point of not recalling events?

"Kavanaugh portrayed himself in his testimony as enjoying a beer or two...but not as someone who often drank to excess during those years." 1/ “Nearly a DOZEN people who knew him well or socialized with him said Judge Kavanaugh was a heavy drinker in college. Dr. Swisher said she saw him 'very drunk' a number of times...freshmen year roommate, described his stumbling in at all hours of the night.” (NYT) 2/

5 questions FoxNews did NOT ask Kavanaugh:

1. Kavanaugh: In H.S., I was focused on studying and sports and did and saw nothing outrageous in H.S. parties

Not asked: How do you then explain the apparently grotesque sexual (and alcohol) references in your Yearbook?

<thread>... 2. Kavanaugh: My Yale roommate James Roche (who said "believable" Kav engaged in Ramirez sexual assault) does not corroborate the incident.

Not asked: What about other Yale student told of incident at the time and says “one-hundred-per-cent sure” Kavanaugh named as perpetrator?

<thread> on Dr Ford longtime friend's (Leland Keyser) statement to Senate:

1 discredits Grassley saying this "directly contradict(s)" Ford
2 undermines Kavanaugh defense of mistaken identity
3 unsurprising she doesn't recall party
4 adds to Ford’s credibility to have named her… I’ll begin by saying opponents of Kavanaugh should not try to rationalize away Keyser’s statements.

I may not agree with the exact way he phrased/framed it, but @saletan is making these points:

https://twitter.com/saletan/status/1043708431927070720

3. I always recall the NYT piece—with major scoop of leaked McFarland emails—included this tantalizing nugget of a planned meeting with President-elect Trump later that same day. Raising Q of what Trump knew

nytimes.com/2017/12/02/us/… (@nytmike @SharonLNYT @ScottShaneNYT reporting) 4. All this lying to FBI by Trump team raises BIG question whether it was coordinated, which could seriously implicate Trump in actions that even @AlanDersh thinks is a crime for a President to commit.

Conspiracy to suborn perjury.

I wrote about it:
justsecurity.org/51399/cover-li…

Giuliani invokes Woodward on collusion👇

#WoodwardBook is very superficial on this topic. When it does make a claim it gets stuff WRONG. 2 examples:

Woodward: “The sources that Steele used for his dossier had not been polygraphed, which made their information uncorroborated” 1/ Some Steele's sources' info had been corroborated at the time. FBI Dir Comey's declassified notes of what he told Priebus:

"I explained that the analysts from all three agencies agreed it was relevant and that portions of the material were corroborated by other intelligence.” 2/

It's now important to recall Sen. Burr’s history with this investigation. Starting here:

“Democrats are wondering whether Burr, WHO ALSO SERVED AS A NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISER TO TRUMP’S CAMPAIGN, is too close to Trump to lead an impartial investigation”
Politico, 2/27/17<thread>

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1039877857441402882

2. This was not just a Democratic concern about Burr's impartiality. Same Politico story (@abwrig reporting):

“Even two intelligence committee Republicans — Sens. Marco Rubio of Florida and Susan Collins of Maine — made statements over the weekend”
politico.com/story/2017/02/…

The following statements by Judge #Kavanaugh were misleading or false.

The question asked by Republican and Democratic Senators was important:

Had he ever taken a position on the Constitutionality of indicting or prosecuting a sitting President? ... <thread> 1. Kavanaugh misleading/false statement to @SenFeinstein:

“I've never taken a position on the Constitution on that question.”

Breaking: Feds charge Sam Patten as unregistered agent for Ukrainian parties.

1. worked with Cambridge Analytica
2. associate of Manafort and Kilimnik (agent with active ties to Russian military intelligence)

Read @NatashaBertrand's write up from April:
theatlantic.com/politics/archi… Sam Patten's own words about his work for #CambridgeAnalytica’s parent company, SCL Group:

“included taking micro-targeting to the next level” during the 2014 midterms, developing methods “adopted by at least one major U.S. presidential candidate.”

Giuliani on CNN: Manafort couldn't incriminate Trump because "Manafort was with him for four months" and didn't play a central role

Here's why that's false on many counts

1. Timeline by @K8brannen showing how far back Manafort-Trump go (decades)
justsecurity.org/46464/timeline… <thread> 2. Manafort was campaign chair (celebrated by Newt Gingrich for playing major role).

See this revealing tweet and quote at the time Manafort resigned in Aug. 2016:

All in the past two weeks:

1 DJT tweet suggests Russia didn't interfere in 2016 election
2 DJT secret plan for Syria would "accede to Russian power...troubles many Pentagon officials" (@IgnatiusPost report)
3. DJT suggests Russian annexation of Crimea negotiable

<thread> ... 4. WaPo's @joshrogin reports that DJT asked French President Macron, “Why don’t you leave the EU?” and said US would give France a better deal if it left

washingtonpost.com/opinions/globa…

Trump Justice Dep't to federal court on Thurs: #FamilyDetention deters future migrants, just look at our statistics.

Professor @adambcox and me: Actually your statistics prove the exact opposite (and the policy is unethical)

justsecurity.org/58354/detentio…
#FamilySeparation
<thread>1/ Full picture with ALL the official data shows "devastating evidence" government’s claim is false. The federal court's putting a stop to #FamilyDetention in 2015 had no proven effect on migration rate.

Upshot: Trump-Stephen Miller policy wouldn't even achieve their stated goal 2/

Recall when Russia violated nuclear weapon treaty and Trump promised “would bring it up” with Putin directly?

Recall when Trump told room of UN ambassadors, including Russia, Nikki Haley “can easily be replaced” after her criticisms of Kremlin?

We do:
justsecurity.org/58108/timeline… 1/ Remember when Secretary Tillerson testified before Senate that the administration did not want sanctions legislation on the ground that “something new” could close down White House communication channels with the Kremlin? (Passed the Senate 98-2.)

We do:

I just published: “Paul Manafort = Evidence of Collusion”

Bottom line up front: Nine significant pieces of info in public record point to conspiracy with Russians and violations of federal campaign finance law...

<THREAD>
justsecurity.org/57863/paul-man… 1. Manafort proposes to Putin-linked, Russian oligarch a plan to “greatly benefit Putin,” and they get to work (2005-)

Original Scoop for this story is @AssociatedPress story by @JeffHorwitz @ChadSDay:

apnews.com/122ae0b5848345…

I discussed Aug 3 Trump Tower meeting with @chrislhayes @jonathanchait

Potential criminal law issues include:

federal campaign law violation
Erik Prince perjury

With evidence Don Jr may have also lied to Congress about meeting, it raises another set of legal issues... A key question now: whether there was coordination b/w Erik Prince and Don Jr (and OTHERS) to lie to federal authorities about Aug 3 meeting, dealings with George Nader as UAE emissary.

I wrote about sweeping in others involved in any conspiracy to lie
justsecurity.org/51399/cover-li… 2/

With Trump-Nunes narrative that deep state was out to undermine Trump campaign…

Re-upping my piece (with @RWPUSA) detailing all the steps FBI/DoJ took

—to SLOW investigation of Manafort
—not to respond to Steele
—NY Field Office biases, etc

justsecurity.org/38375/real-que…
<thread> 1/ FBI, DOJ decided to slow walk the Manafort investigation during the election

NYT: “In August, around the same time the decision was made to keep the Manafort investigation at a LOW SIMMER”

nytimes.com/2016/11/02/us/…
(@mattapuzzo @nytmike @adamgoldmanNYT @WRashbaum reporting)
2/

With Blockbuster NYT report ("Trump Jr. and Other Aides Met With Gulf Emissary Offering Help to Win Election")...

1. Meeting was arranged and attended by Erik Prince.

2. Compare this to what Prince told Congress and looks a lot like perjury.

Prince's testimony:
<thread>1/ Prior tweet was Prince testimony about his contacts with Trump campaign in answer to questions by @TomRooney.

Here's Prince's testimony about contact with Don Jr in answer to questions by @RepSwalwell:

2/

With SCOOP by @JoshMeyerDC ("Ukrainian politician behind controversial peace proposal to appear in Mueller probe") some key points to add:

1. Same politician said his discussions with Cohen and Sater began DURING 2016 election—not after.
justsecurity.org/44962/trump-to…
<thread> 2. If discussions of back channel Ukraine plan began "at the time of the primaries," as Artemenko said—that could be VERY important to any QUID PRO QUO analysis.

Think about it: a Russia-friendly plan for Ukraine and lifting sanctions proposed to Michael Cohen in 2016.

<THREAD> This scoop by @KatyTurNBC and @carolelee puts the nail in the coffin of arguments that Mueller is not digging deep into potential Trump-Russia collusion and is focused on obstruction and process crimes. 1/

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Mueller's questions of witnesses described in the Tur-Lee NBC story closely tracks the crimes under campaign finance law outlined by former White House Counsel Bob Bauer:

justsecurity.org/author/bauerbo… 2/

<THREAD> Why are some exaggerating/mistaking what the #GrassleyMemo says?

See this widely-shared thread below by @KimStrassel.

I wrote about the Grassley memo at length here: justsecurity.org/51956/dissecti…

I’ll raise specific points of disagreement with Strassel in this thread ... 1/

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2. Strassel: “it confirms the Nunes memo and blows up the Schiff talking points”

FALSE: it undercuts #NunesMemo on 2 main claims: whether the FISA application relied on news story for corroboration and whether DOJ told court about political origins of Steele’ dossier.

I wrote: