Matteo Villa Profile picture
Jun 24, 2018 โ€ข 8 tweets โ€ข 6 min read
๐Ÿšข๐Ÿค”๐Ÿ“ˆ๐Ÿง๐Ÿ“‰

So. The #Lifeline case has descended into another Aquarius case. Meanwhile, 16 leaders of EU Member States meet for an #EUCO informal meeting on #migrationEU.

Time for a brief recap of the role of #NGO-s doing #SAR operations in the Central Mediterranean? ๐Ÿ‘‡
First: PERCEPTIONS MATTER. ๐Ÿ“บ๐Ÿค”

Irregular sea arrivals to Italy are WAY down, and continue to be (-78% y-o-y), even as NGOs carried out over 40% of SAR operations in 2017 and 2018.
Still, 51% of Italians believe flows are as high or higher than last year's.๐Ÿ‘‡
Second: DETERRENCE VS NGOs does not pay off (much).๐Ÿšขโ›”๏ธ๐Ÿ“‰

Over the last two weeks of the new goverment's "deterring measures", the decline in sea arrivals vs 2017 is broadly in line with the drop experienced since July 2017. With or without #Aquarius and #Lifeline arrivals. ๐Ÿ‘‡
.@sapomnia pointed this out in a @wireditalia article โ€“ he gave me the idea for a constant monitoring (in ITA ๐Ÿ‘‡)
wired.it/attualita/poliโ€ฆ
Third: DETERRENCE vs NGOs may BACKFIRE. ๐Ÿšขโ›”๏ธ๐Ÿ“ˆ

While nowhere near the levels before the drop in sea arrivals, the number of annualised deaths in the Central Mediterranean is edging up. Surely ot a crisis for now, but calls for weekly monitoring. ๐Ÿ‘‡
Fourth: NGOs DID NOT AFFECT SEA ARRIVALS. ๐Ÿšข๐Ÿ“ˆ๐Ÿ“‰

No need for complex models.

In the month between 16 July and 15 August 2017, almost all NGOs were still operating, carrying out #SAR at max levels, and yet arrivals dropped to a trickle.
Fifth: NGOs DID NOT AFFECT SEA ARRIVALS. ๐Ÿšข๐Ÿ“ˆ๐Ÿ“‰

if you still need more evidence, here you go.

With monthly data from 2015 through April 2018, there is no apparent trend between NGO's search and rescue activity and arrivals to Italy (or departures from Libya, for that matter).๐Ÿ‘‡
BOTTOM LINE: #MigrationEU policies today are almost totally shaped by crisis narratives. And crisis narratives can only lead to bad solutions.

The main issue today is not irregular flows.

It is INTEGRATION. And we are forgetting about it.

โ€ข โ€ข โ€ข

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More from @emmevilla

Sep 4, 2018
(โ›”๐ŸšขBREAKING) NO WAY OUT. As fighting in #Tripoli rages on, this August just 1,300 #migrants left #Libya in an attempt to reach Europe by sea.

This is the LOWEST Summer figure since 2012.

#Libia
Migrants are trapped in #Libya, often in appalling conditions. Made even worse by the recent fighting in #Tripoli.
FOLLOW this crucial reporting by @sallyhayd. ๐Ÿ‘‡

(โ›”๐ŸšขBREAKING) Of the 742 that made it to Europe from #Libya this August, less than a third (234) disembarked in Italy. Of these, 190 were onboard an Italian Coast Guard ship during the "#Diciotti standoff".

Another 56% (416) disembarked in Malta.
12% (87) disembarked in Spain.
Read 10 tweets
Aug 16, 2018
Nave #Diciotti e i 177 #migranti ancora a bordo: proviamo a fare chiarezza?

(SPOILER: non sarร  per niente facile)

#askmeanything

๐Ÿ‘‡
#Malta sostiene che il barcone con 190 #migranti ieri notte non fosse in pericolo (distress), e che per questo motivo quando era in loro zona SAR lo MRCC maltese non abbia coordinato salvataggio ma solo affiancato barca e prestato assistenza.
Secondo Malta, questo รจ sufficiente perchรฉ La Valletta non debba indicare un proprio โ€œporto sicuroโ€ per sbarcare i #migranti raccolti dalla nave #Diciotti.
Ma la realtร  รจ ben piรน complessa.
Read 10 tweets
Aug 11, 2018
๐Ÿšขโ›ต๏ธ๐Ÿšค๐Ÿค”With less NGOs at sea (#Aquarius @MSF_Sea, @openarms_fund), we have seen people being saved from sturdier boats, trawlers arriving directly to ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น shores.
The question: do NGOs' search and rescue activities affect how #Libya smugglers send #migrants at sea?
First: TIMING.

Data shows that rubber dinghies were already the most used means of transport in 2015, when NGOs were small minority of rescuers.
It also shows shift to smaller vessels (dinghies + small boats), from 78% to 90%+. But these were already large majority in 2015.
Second: CORRELATION.

Using what yearly data we have available, is there any evidence that NGOs affected the prevalence of unseaworthy rubber dinghies, as compared to sturdier vessels? Well, NOPE. ๐Ÿ‘‡
Read 9 tweets
Aug 2, 2018
(โ›”๏ธ๐ŸšขBREAKING) EVERYONE GOES BACK. In July, 23% of #migrants departing from #Libya made it to Europe. This is the LOWEST share ever.

72% were caught and brought back.

5.2% died or went missing.
(โ›”๏ธ๐ŸšขBREAKING) EVERYONE GOES BACK. Since July 16th, numbers paint an even starker (and somewhat different) picture.

99.5% of #migrants departing from #Libya were caught and brought back.

0.5% died or went missing (very few).

No one made it to Europe.
(๐Ÿ”ดBREAKING) DEPARTURES FROM LIBYA ARE DOWN MARKEDLY. In June, about 6,900 migrants took to the sea from Libya's shores. This month, about 3,000 did: a 56% drop that is highly unusual during the Summer season.
Read 10 tweets
Jul 23, 2018
โ›”๏ธ๐ŸšทLA STRATEGIA DELLA DETERRENZA TOTALE. Su @ilfoglio_it di ieri, @borga_lor fa un grande lavoro per spiegare la strategia #sbarchi di questo Governo e per darne una misura dei rischi.
Leggetelo o, almeno, seguitemi qui sotto. ๐Ÿ‘‡

ilfoglio.it/politica/2018/โ€ฆ
La "strategia Salvini" ha un obiettivo principale: ridurre gli sbarchi in Italia. E uno secondario: evitare le morti in mare.

Ma arriva dopo dieci mesi di calo sbarchi post-Minniti, in cui:
- gli sbarchi sono calati del 76%;
- morti e dispersi si sono ridotti del 74%.
Parliamo di numeri assoluti:

- SBARCHI. Nei 10 mesi e mezzo prima del calo sbarchi erano giunte in Italia circa 170.000 persone. Nei 10 mesi e mezzo di calo, circa 40.000.

- MORTI e DISPERSI IN MARE dalla Libia. 10 mesi e mezzo, prima e dopo: da 4.150 a 1.070.
Read 12 tweets

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