Thread by @JohnHoCLibrary

At @ChathamHouse for @InstituteGC (Tony Blair) talk- ‘in defence of globalisation.’ Venue is packed, no surprise there. #CHEvents

Tony, starts with a joke about Boris Johnson #topical. Onto the serious stuff, ‘globalisation is on the back foot’, difficult to know if we’re on the crest of the wave or if it’s a growing phenomenon, he fears it is the latter

Thinks when populism fails, the populace will double down rather than admit populist solutions were wrong. Why allusions to the 1939’s need to be taken seriously.

Need to make arguments again for migration and globalisation, but do need to tackle the grievances that have arisen

Globalisation shouldn’t be confused with laisezz-faire, still need to have rules and help the poorest, points to his governments efforts to tackle poverty.

Little doubt protectionism harms prosperity. Roots of Trumps efforts to tackle China’s trade practices, are understandable. But pursued unilaterally in the national interest is damaging.

The world is now more multi-lateral. This is why the trans-Atlantic relationship more important than ever. Strong-man culture has developed. Has its admirers in Europe

Thinks the rest of a country, is ‘are people trying to get into it, or out of it?’ Says the transatlantic alliance is built on values, and is the bedrock of the liberal international order, and defence of democracy

Need leaders both sides of the water, explaining its importance and trying to strengthen it. ....Here comes Brexit......Klaxon sounds....

He’s bored of being told people are bored of him talking about Brexit. Questions need to be ask how Brexit affects the transatlantic alliance. Does UK feel closer to the US now? Is the relationship stronger? Who does the President call first in Europe?

Some on the American right think Brexit will bring UK closer to US. Says vision of right wing in UK of less regulation and freer trade bringing us closer to the UK is not what those who voted for Brexit in Labour areas of the North wanted. They wanted more protectionism

The trouble is the compromise solution favoured by Labour front bunch and Cabinet remainers- the soft-Brexit, means have no say on rules that would govern us, superior to hard Brexit in his view, but does it live up to what people who voted for Brexit wanted?

Should plan now for extending Article 50, as no deal would be far too damaging, and government not close enough to having a clear vision

The risk to our allies from Brexit, thinks means UK is weaker, which means a weaker Europe, and worse transatlantic relationship

Only way to get out of this cup-de-sac is to deal with grievances that fulee Brexit

Believes Europe should reform in a way that would allow UK to stay in a reformed EU. Blair still thinking big, but think he forgets EU too consumed by other problems to undergo such a change, and th bad faith that now exists

Ends. Questions start. Phew.

Interesting observation on populism & opposition to globalisation- not just about economics, culture is the other element. In Poland, for example, economy surging, but populism rising. Left of politics less comfortable talking about culture

In thirty years time there will be three ‘giants’- US, China & India. Some ‘tall people’ Indonesia, Mexico, maybe Russia. Then medium countries- Germany, France, UK. Only way for medium countries not to get squashed by giants is to band together. Why believes in EU