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Final group stage table
World Cup prediction evaluation
@SoccernomicsLtd
✅1st place= @LloydsofLondon @GoldmanSachs @CBSSports with 32/48
✅In 2014 top predictors also had 32
✅All bested naive (except @TMuk_news & 2014 winner @AndrewGKYuan)
✅Will start fresh for knockout
⬇️
World Cup prediction evaluation
@SoccernomicsLtd
✅1st place= @LloydsofLondon @GoldmanSachs @CBSSports with 32/48
✅In 2014 top predictors also had 32
✅All bested naive (except @TMuk_news & 2014 winner @AndrewGKYuan)
✅Will start fresh for knockout
⬇️
Some further details.
✅2018= 9 draws, so 39 matches possible in this simple competition
✅2014= also 9 draws
✅Coin flip would thus give expected 19.5 correct
✅All predictions show ++value over coin flip
✅Some modest value over naive methods (ELO, FIFA, $$)
@SoccernomicsLtd
✅2018= 9 draws, so 39 matches possible in this simple competition
✅2014= also 9 draws
✅Coin flip would thus give expected 19.5 correct
✅All predictions show ++value over coin flip
✅Some modest value over naive methods (ELO, FIFA, $$)
@SoccernomicsLtd
✅Now I will run a second competition with all 16 teams x 12 rankings in the knockout phase
✅In 2014 forecasters correctly anticipated between 9 and 11matches correctly
✅FIFA rankings had 10/16
✅2018 in the quarterfinals, there are 4 unanimous picks:
#ESP #BRA #BEL #ENG
✅In 2014 forecasters correctly anticipated between 9 and 11matches correctly
✅FIFA rankings had 10/16
✅2018 in the quarterfinals, there are 4 unanimous picks:
#ESP #BRA #BEL #ENG
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