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The Honest Broker Profile picture
The Honest Broker
@RogerPielkeJr
undisciplined academic | Honorary Professor @UCL | Run don't walk & subscribe to The Honest Broker ➡️ https://t.co/f7iRjp3abk
A Strange loop Profile picture 1 subscribed
Oct 8, 2018 • 11 tweets • 2 min read
1⃣A short thread on what the new @IPCC_CH report says about trends in extreme events, specifically: heat waves, drought, floods, tropical cyclones, tornadoes. Let's go . . . 2⃣Temperature extremes: Nor change from AR5 or SREX
Very likely= ⬇️cold days and nights
Very likely= ⬆️warm days and nights
Likely= "consistent changes are detectable on continental scale in North America, Europe and Australia"
Sep 12, 2018 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
A comprehensive look at US hurricanes, climate modes & damage⬇️
Klotzbach, P., Bowen, S. G., Pielke Jr, R., & Bell, M. (2018). Continental United States hurricane landfall frequency and associated damage: Observations and future risks. BAMS.
journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/BA… Higher numbers of east coast landfalls & damage occur in ENSO neutral years
(climate variability is so out of vogue, I know😉)⬇️
Aug 8, 2018 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Earl & Simmonds 2018 Spatial and temporal variability and trends in 2001–2016 global fire activity. JGR:A 123:2524-2536.
"There is a very strong decline in global fires (stat sig at the 0.1% confidence level; hereafter p < 0.001), present in each season except Dec–Feb (p < 0.1)" Earl & Simmonds 2018:
"most of these large‐scale regions of the world exhibit little change or decreasing in fire activity except India (box 14) and China (box 17—...), with a weak nonsignificant signal in Canada" agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.100…
Aug 8, 2018 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
"the incidence of floods over mainland France is found to be stable over the last 35 years and even falling once we account for the heightened population pressure" sciencedirect.com/science/articl… "rates of forest fire destruction display a significative downward trend, the anthropogenic rate fell from about 5% to 2% (over the period 1973–2017) while the natural rate is about 100x smaller and likewise falling. . . " sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
Aug 7, 2018 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
Climate chg is real & can/will impact fire
Evidence still matters (or not?)
Keeley & Zedler 2009:
“Over the last 130 years there has been no significant change in the incidence of large fires >10 000 ha”
Biggest known CA fire? Maybe 1889
To discuss.
⬇️
esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.189… Conclusion of Keeley & Zedler 2009 (spoiler, it’s us in many ways)
Aug 1, 2018 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
This NYT article on climate policy history brings together alternative history with a disaster movie plot (brave scientists warns the world). The world was not on the brink of rapid decarbonization in the 1980s. It's a fun story though⬇️ What Frank Press (NAS prez, Carter science advisor) wrote 1989:
"Substantial reduction of CO2... responsible for 1/2 of the temp rise, will require a change in the energy economy of the world at a cost of 100s of Bs to Ts of $ & may not be technically possible over next 40 yrs"
Aug 1, 2018 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
🚨Our BJSM submission on IAAF T science🚨
A revised version of our paper critiquing the unreliable data & methods of IAAF research used to support its testosterone regulations applied to women
@Scienceofsport @boyeerik
Find the submission here (PDF): goo.gl/a7QoG7 Here is a quick summary
In our recreation of the data used for 4 women's events in Bermon and Garnier (2017, BG17) we identified pervasive data anomalies and errors, summarized in the able below.
Jul 26, 2018 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Important analysis:
"Our analysis of India’s NDC suggests a significant mismatch between India’s current domestic energy realities & the pledges submitted towards the Paris Agreement, mirroring the broader problem with inconsistency of talk & action in global climate policy"⬇️ From new paper by @animohan11 & Wehnert, data suggests India has re-carbonized (CO2/GDP) by 4% since 2011
A decade ago expectations were for India BAU to decarbonize by 1.0-3.3% per yr (see: nature.com/articles/46215…)
Incorrect spontaneous decarbonization assumption strikes again!
Jul 26, 2018 • 19 tweets • 13 min read
For #TBT I am going to Tweet my old @guardianscience Political Science (RIP) columns.
Here is the first one from 2013
➡️Letter from America: a memo to chief scientific adviser Sir Mark Walport theguardian.com/science/politi… #TBT with @jameswilsdon also 2013
➡️Why Monbiot's attack on Walport misses the mark theguardian.com/science/politi…
Jul 25, 2018 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Short thread
30 years ago climate change emerged as a public issue
Here is @revkin 1988 article discovermagazine.com/1988/oct/23-sp…
Since the advocacy has focused on moving public opinion towards concern sufficient to support policy action
How's that done?
Let's take a quick look at data... In 2018 Gallup found that:
➡️63% of Americans worried a “great deal” or “fair amount” about climate change
In 1989 Gallup found that:
➡️63% of Americans worried a “great deal” or “fair amount” about climate change
No overall change. What has changed?
news.gallup.com/poll/231530/gl…
Jul 24, 2018 • 12 tweets • 2 min read
The frustrating circularity of Sen. Blumenthal querying USOC on its relationship with NGBs.
It is up to Congress to define that relationship more precisely if they want, not USOC.
USOC & NGB relations are subject of 1978 US law (Amateur Sports Act). It is clear US policies governing the structure and functioning of US Olympic sports bodies (USOC, NGBs, WADA, Safe Sport, etc) is no longer fit for purpose. It is not clear how to fix it, but it is clear it won't come from sports bodies. Not their job, don't have the expertise.
Jul 18, 2018 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Thread⬇️
With the NYT analysis of running shoes today, I think it adds a final piece of the puzzle to indicate an elite sport outcome more than plausibly determined by technology. Here is my argument . . . In the 2016 US women's marathon trials the results were:
1. Amy Cragg 2:28:20 ➡️NIKE VaporFly
2. Desiree Linden 2:28:54 ➡️BROOKS
3. Shalane Flanagan 2:29:19 ➡️NIKE VaporFly
4. Kara Goucher 2:30:24 ➡️SKETCHERS
Jul 14, 2018 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
For those following the IAAF T regulations issue, Handelsman et al 2018 was just published: doi.org/10.1210/er.201…
Interestingly IAAF lawyers, IOC and WADA thanked in the acknowledgments.
Study authors work for/funded by IAAF. In Handelsman et al 2018 the only performance study of elite female athletes cited is ... BG2017 (the one with the flawed data).
This is a great (frustrating, scary) example of how bad science propagates quickly ⬇️
Jul 10, 2018 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
This is very good⬇️ To follow up on @JoanCWilliams @WSJ op-ed today ... compare these word clouds between Obama announcing entry into Paris Agreement & Trump announcing withdrawal. One speaks to elites, the other to working class.
Source: rogerpielkejr.com/2017/12/04/cli…
Jul 6, 2018 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Nate is wrong here.
Higher ranked FIFA squads won 30 of 56 matches through group stage and R16.
Lots of upsets based on the FIFA rankings that seeded the teams.⤵️ Ranking-based prediction evaluation results through R16 ⤵️
@SoccernomicsLtd
Jun 21, 2018 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
At #RisingTides listening to Clara Irazábal-Zurita & @paulmromer talk big cities w/ @CharlesCMann ⤵️ “If we get too pessimistic, we just get stupid”
@paulmromer #RisingTides @TheBTI
Jun 20, 2018 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
US Soccer has released its 2016 and 2017 Audited Financial Statements. In this thread, I'll pull some interesting statements from within that document, found here: ussoccer.com/about/federati… USSF, a non-profit Olympic sport NGB, admidts to errors in its accounting for its subsidiary non-profit CA2016 and its sub-subsidiary non-profit CA2016 Marketing.
Confused by Russian nesting dolls? Me too.
In the corrected restatement $4.6m in cash no longer is there?
Jun 18, 2018 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
1⃣This statement from IAAF is flawed in 2 important ways:
"On Sunday, the I.A.A.F. said in a statement that athletes with differences of sexual development could have a 5-6 percent advantage in performance over athletes with testosterone in the normal female range" ⬇️ 2⃣Regardless intent, the IAAF T regulations are focused on regulating testosterone levels, they are not focused on regulating any other biological characteristic or metric. To suggest (as IAAF has in this statement) that IAAF is regulating "DSD" is an improper bait and switch.
Apr 30, 2018 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
In IAAF dataset of testosterone levels in women
➡️1332 observations for females
➡️24 had high T, >99th percentile
➡️Of those 24 cases 9 were known to have doped
➡️another 9 known DSD
➡️6 unknown cause
All 24 used in IAAF statistical analysis basis for new regs 🤷‍♂️ The obvious question for IAAF researchers is:
why didn't you look specifically at the 9 female DSD athletes (<0.7% of population) and report their performances, why lump them in with known dopers etc?
There is a huge categorization error here, even granting IAAF logic (I don't)
Apr 19, 2018 • 66 tweets • 29 min read
1⃣Last night I gave my first public lecture on extreme weather since being "investigated" by Rep. Raul Grijalva in 2015. In the lecture I tell a story and present updated, consensus science on extreme weather. Let's get started ... 2⃣I started with a disclosure of everyone I've voted for in presidential elections since 1988. I also included who I supported in 1980 (John Anderson, of course), the first election I can remember actually following, when I was 12 and in 7th grade.
Dec 17, 2017 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
Some interesting US wildfire stats:
1939➡️30,449,000 acres burned
1944➡️Smokey the Bear makes his first appearance
by 1950 fires cut in half➡️15,519.000 acres burned
by 1960 fire cut by another 2/3➡️4,478,000 acres burned
2017 (thru 12/15)➡️9,489,605 acres burned Sources:
pre-1970 data: www2.census.gov/library/public…
2017: nifc.gov/fireInfo/nfn.h…
Smokey the Bear history: smokeybear.com/en/smokeys-his…