Jon Worth Profile picture
Jul 1, 2018 10 tweets 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Something about this #Seehofer "resignation" does not add up.

A thread.

1/9
Merkel went to Brussels and got a framework for a deal on refugees, the sort of thing that Seehofer was pushing for. A bit thin on the details, but Merkel did not return empty handed.

2/9
The normal CSU reaction to this would have been to have claimed a minor victory, to show how Bavaria's interests were being taken seriously, and move on somewhat.

3/9
But no.

We have Seehofer resigning (not accepted at the time of writing), and CSU Parliamentary Leader Dobrindt - more of a neo-con right winger in contrast to Seehofer's jocular Bavarian traditionalism - requesting that he does not go.

Why?

4/9
As I see it Dobrindt and Markus Söder would have *more* problem with what Merkel brokered than Seehofer himself would. They are the ones who have piloted the CSU towards the AfD, and also want to create Bannon-esque atmosphere that Germany's institutions are failing.

5/9
Could it be that Seehofer proposed to move on from the fight with Merkel, and to underline what had been achieved? But Söder and Dobrindt demanded the CSU keeps up the pressure - and that was something Seehofer did not want to do, and hence he chose to go?

6/9
It could, I suppose, be that Seehofer felt he has taken the CSU to the edge, but Merkel outwitted him, and hence his position would be untenable. But that leads me back to tweet 3 above - why not frame Merkel's deal as a CSU victory?

7/9
We'll find out soon enough exactly what happened here, but to me this looks like tensions inside the CSU, rather than Seehofer-Merkel tensions, forced this over the edge.

8/9
And the really scary prospect?

Can you imagine Dobrindt as Interior Minister?

😬‼️😬‼️😬‼️😬

9/9
From Spiegel’s live blog - they attribute this all to Seehofer saying he has inadequate backing within the CSU (midnight update) spiegel.de/politik/deutsc… 10/9

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More from @jonworth

Sep 30, 2018
Let’s put to one side the substance here. The EU is not like the Soviet Union. Hunt, I think, is just about smart enough to know this.

But what makes him make such a statement?

1/8
The Tory Party considers Hunt a wet. He backs Chequers. He was a Remainer. He says he wants a Brexit Deal.

He can’t out-EU-sceptic Rees-Mogg or Johnson while he’s in Cabinet.

2/8
He’s previously said that only Putin would rejoice were there to be a No Deal Brexit
dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6…

That’s only slightly less ill judged than his Soviet comments.

3/8
Read 8 tweets
Aug 13, 2018
Let's do a little thought experiment in light of this tweet from @robfordmancs:


This builds on my earlier thread:


1/8
Prerequisites for this:
- someone ousts May in a Tory leadership election in Sept/Oct
- Govt majority lost, meaning a new GE in Oct/Nov 2018
(both of these are of course open to question - but bear with me!)

2/8
How do the Tories and Labour approach #Brexit in such a General Election campaign?

One presumes that the Tories (with 75% of their membership pro-Brexit) aim for a hard Brexit, something akin to the Chequers deal (or harder). They'd NOT want a #peoplesvote

3/8
Read 8 tweets
Aug 13, 2018
In my most recent blog post I argue that when a political crisis hits in 🇬🇧, 🇪🇺 is going to have to contemplate extending the #Article50 period.

Blog post is here:
jonworth.eu/the-political-…

This thread examines some of the aspects of extending Article 50 (or not)

1/12
First some background - I have an older blog post here about why extending the Article 50 period would be a good idea:
jonworth.eu/transition-per…

And the relevant part of Article 50 is shown here - unanimous agreement of EU-27 needed to extend

2/12
Extending the Article 50 period is not something either side really wants.

BUT No Deal #Brexit is the thing both sides should absolutely fear, especially 🇬🇧 but even the 🇪🇺, whose Member States (especially 🇮🇪) would take a major GDP hit.

3/12
Read 12 tweets
Aug 7, 2018
This @politicoeurope piece and infographic by @kbolongaro about the #Brexit and the ham and cheese sandwich has been widely retweeted.

Do read the whole piece - don't just rely on the infographic.

politico.eu/article/brexit…

1/15
But let's just say for a minute that, spurred on by national sandwich sentiment post a No Deal Brexit, the UK did want to make itself more self-sustaining in its food production, what could it do?

2/15
First some stats: Defra has useful stats on UK food import dependency here: gov.uk/government/sta…

The first Excel table shows how import dependency for food has been growing (the UK now imports 40% of its food), and the second Excel download lists value by food type.

3/15
Read 17 tweets
Jul 18, 2018
Most charming & amusing Russian 🇷🇺 experience to date here in Ulan-Ude...

When planning this trip people asked me: do you speak Russian? Answer: no. But I am armed with Yandex Translate. It has a RU-EN offline dictionary, and can speak it all too:
itunes.apple.com/us/app/yandex-…

1/7
You can do pretty complex things with Yandex.

But trying to book a bus 🚌 ticket 🎟 online from Irkutsk to Bratsk was a step too far.

Irkutsk = Иркутск
Bratsk = Братск
is easy enough.

Entering names, gender etc., sure.

But nationality?

2/7
What is my nationality?

England = Англия
Great Britain = Великобритания
UK? = Объединенное королевство великой Британии и северной Ирландии

None in the list...

Enter a confused but helpful hotel receptionist.

3/7
Read 7 tweets
Jun 28, 2018
My mind keeps returning to this extraordinary and ridiculous #Brexit tweet from Downing Street earlier:


1/12
Commemorative copies of the EU (Withdrawal) Act.

Seriously, commemorative copies of the EU (Withdrawal) Act?

The Brexit equivalent of Charles and Diana commemorative mugs, as one wag said to me on Twitter.

2/12
Ultimately history will judge whether the Withdrawal Act was an important staging post on the route towards Brexit.

Trying to pre-judge the historic-ness of it (or not) just looks crass. Like something from The Thick of It.

3/12
Read 12 tweets

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