Thread by @Usherwood

A quick couple of thoughts on the 'darkest before the dawn' view of Brexit:

1/

The next couple of weeks really do matter for Brexit, not least because several other, earlier crunch points resulting in stasis

2/

EU broadly accepted that last week's #EUCO wouldn't produce much, largely because of the promise of next week's White Paper (WP)

3/

HMG has ramped up expectations on this WP, both domestically and externally. Hence diplomatic push straight, esp w IE

4/

A result of this is that domestic grps are also ramping up pressure, to push this way and that

- Gove doing the ripping-up thing
- JRM doing the 'I'd hate to have to depose you' thing

5/

Thus there is both a need and an expectation that the famous 'tough choices' are coming, and coming soon

6/

That means winners and losers, and no one is yet ready to be a loser on this, esp w May looking so weak/biddable

7/

The optimistic view on all this is that of the opening tweet: very tough discussions, but opening up a line that can be held and worked with by EU to get to a deal

8/

Best case, that means a viable model in WP, then rapid work w COM to embed that in Art.50 negotiations to get much of a deal by Oct

9/

However, that looks optimistic

10/

Firstly, Chequers/WP might get to a position, but that doesn't embed it very well w/in CON, esp if ERG go beyond words and start more meaningful boat-rocking

11/

They might do that because they think there's still plenty of time until next March to direct things, so courses can be changed during summer/autumn

12/

Secondly, if WP doesn't produce a viable plan, then hard for COM to help lock it in. That's eminently possibly given views around Cab table

13/

(working assumption here is that COM wants a deal, and will do best to work with what it's given, w/in limits of mandate)

14/

Thirdly, May might not feel there's urgency to getting a big advance in WP, and it's easier/better to play out some more time, so that when crunch does come, less time is left to have counter-activity

15/

This would fit previous approach, May's structural position and the vagueness in today's trailing of a 'third way' approach on customs

16/

To summarise: it's darkest before the dawn, but it's also very dark as you go deeper into the unexplored cave system (a line that will doubtless resonate through the ages)

/end